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The 2011 Report on Manufacturing Commercial, Industrial, and Institutional Electric Lighting Fixtures: World Market Segmentation by City
ICON Group International, Jan 2011, Pages: 348
Market Potential Estimation Methodology
Overview
This study covers the world outlook for manufacturing commercial, industrial, and institutional electric lighting fixtures across more than 2000 cities. For the year reported, estimates are given for the latent demand, or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.), for the city in question (in millions of U.S. dollars), the percent share the city is of the region and of the globe. These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a city vis-à-vis others. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each country and across countries, latent demand estimates are created. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved.
This study does not report actual sales data (which are simply unavailable, in a comparable or consistent manner in virtually all of the cities of the world). This study gives, however, my estimates for the worldwide latent demand, or the P.I.E. for manufacturing commercial, industrial, and institutional electric lighting fixtures. It also shows how the P.I.E. is divided across the world’s cities. In order to make these estimates, a multi-stage methodology was employed that is often taught in courses on international strategic planning at graduate schools of business.
What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.?
The concept of latent demand is rather subtle. The term latent typically refers to something that is dormant, not observable, or not yet realized. Demand is the notion of an economic quantity that a target population or market requires under different assumptions of price, quality, and distribution, among other factors. Latent demand, therefore, is commonly defined by economists as the industry earnings of a market when that market becomes accessible and attractive to serve by competing firms. It is a measure, therefore, of potential industry earnings (P.I.E.) or total revenues (not profit) if a market is served in an efficient manner. It is typically expressed as the total revenues potentially extracted by firms. The “market” is defined at a given level in the value chain. There can be latent demand at the retail level, at the wholesale level, the manufacturing level, and the raw materials level (the P.I.E. of higher levels of the value chain being always smaller than the P.I.E. of levels at lower levels of the same value chain, assuming all levels maintain minimum profitability).
The latent demand for manufacturing commercial, industrial, and institutional electric lighting fixtures is not actual or historic sales. Nor is latent demand future sales. In fact, latent demand can be lower either lower or higher than actual sales if a market is inefficient (i.e., not representative of relatively competitive levels). Inefficiencies arise from a number of factors, including the lack of international openness, cultural barriers to consumption, regulations, and cartel-like behavior on the part of firms. In general, however, latent demand is typically larger than actual sales in a city market.
Another reason why sales do not equate to latent demand is exchange rates. In this report, all figures assume the long-run efficiency of currency markets. Figures, therefore, equate values based on purchasing power parities across countries. Short-run distortions in the value of the dollar, therefore, do not figure into the estimates. Purchasing power parity estimates of country income were collected from official sources, and extrapolated using standard econometric models. The report uses the dollar as the currency of comparison, but not as a measure of transaction volume. The units used in this report are: US $ mln.
For reasons discussed later, this report does not consider the notion of “unit quantities”, only total latent revenues (i.e., a calculation of price times quantity is never made, though one is implied). The units used in this report are U.S. dollars not adjusted for inflation (i.e., the figures incorporate inflationary trends) and not adjusted for future dynamics in exchange rates (i.e., the figures reflect average exchange rates over recent history). If inflation rates or exchange rates vary in a substantial way compared to recent experience, actually sales can also exceed latent demand (when expressed in U.S. dollars, not adjusted for inflation). On the other hand, latent demand can be typically higher than actual sales as there are often distribution inefficiencies that reduce actual sales below the level of latent demand.
As mentioned earlier, this study is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved. If fact, all the current products or services on the market can cease to exist in their present form (i.e., at a brand-, R&D specification, or corporate-image level) and all the players can be replaced by other firms (i.e., via exits, entries, mergers, bankruptcies, etc.), and there will still be an international latent demand for manufacturing commercial, industrial, and institutional electric lighting fixtures at the aggregate level. Product and service offering details, and the actual identity of the players involved, while important for certain issues, are relatively unimportant for estimates of latent demand.
The Methodology
In order to estimate the latent demand for manufacturing commercial, industrial, and institutional electric lighting fixtures on a city-by-city basis, I used a multi-stage approach. Before applying the approach, one needs a basic theory from which such estimates are created. In this case, I heavily rely on the use of certain basic economic assumptions. In particular, there is an assumption governing the shape and type of aggregate latent demand functions. Latent demand functions relate the income of a country, city, state, household, or individual to realized consumption. Latent demand (often realized as consumption when an industry is efficient), at any level of the value chain, takes place if an equilibrium in realized. For firms to serve a market, they must perceive a latent demand and be able to serve that demand at a minimal return. The single most important variable determining consumption, assuming latent demand exists, is income (or other financial resources at higher levels of the value chain). Other factors that can pivot or shape demand curves include external or exogenous shocks (i.e., business cycles), and or changes in utility for the product in question.
Ignoring, for the moment, exogenous shocks and variations in utility across countries, the aggregate relation between income and consumption has been a central theme in economics. The figure below concisely summarizes one aspect of problem. In the 1930s, John Meynard Keynes conjectured that as incomes rise, the average propensity to consume would fall. The average propensity to consume is the level of consumption divided by the level of income, or the slope of the line from the origin to the consumption function. He estimated this relationship empirically and found it to be true in the short-run (mostly based on cross-sectional data). The higher the income, the lower the average propensity to consume. This type of consumption function is labeled 'A' in the figure below (note the rather flat slope of the curve). In the 1940s, another macroeconomist, Simon Kuznets, estimated long-run consumption functions which indicated that the marginal propensity to consume was rather constant (using time series data across countries). This type of consumption function is show as 'B' in the figure below (note the higher slope and zero-zero intercept). The average propensity to consume is constant.
Is it declining or is it constant? A number of other economists, notably Franco Modigliani and Milton Friedman, in the 1950s (and Irving Fisher earlier), explained why the two functions were different using various assumptions on intertemporal budget constraints, savings, and wealth. The shorter the time horizon, the more consumption can depend on wealth (earned in previous years) and business cycles. In the long-run, however, the propensity to consume is more constant. Similarly, in the long run, households, industries or countries with no income eventually have no consumption (wealth is depleted). While the debate surrounding beliefs about how income and consumption are related and interesting, in this study a very particular school of thought is adopted. In particular, we are considering the latent demand for manufacturing commercial, industrial, and institutional electric lighting fixtures across some 230 countries. The smallest have fewer than 10,000 inhabitants. I assume that all of these counties fall along a 'long-run' aggregate consumption function. This long-run function applies despite some of these countries having wealth, current income dominates the latent demand for manufacturing commercial, industrial, and institutional electric lighting fixtures. So, latent demand in the long-run has a zero intercept. However, I allow firms to have different propensities to consume (including being on consumption functions with differing slopes, which can account for differences in industrial organization, and end-user preferences).
Given this overriding philosophy, I will now describe the methodology used to create the latent demand estimates for manufacturing commercial, industrial, and institutional electric lighting fixtures. Since ICON Group has asked me to apply this methodology to a large number of categories, the rather academic discussion below is general and can be applied to a wide variety of categories, not just manufacturing commercial, industrial, and institutional electric lighting fixtures.
Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection
Any study of latent demand across countries requires that some standard be established to define “efficiently served”. Having implemented various alternatives and matched these with market outcomes, I have found that the optimal approach is to assume that certain key countries or cities are more likely to be at or near efficiency than others. These are given greater weight than others in the estimation of latent demand compared to others for which no known data are available. Of the many alternatives, I have found the assumption that the world’s highest aggregate income and highest income-per-capita markets reflect the best standards for “efficiency”. High aggregate income alone is not sufficient (i.e., China has high aggregate income, but low income per capita and can not assumed to be efficient). Aggregate income can be operationalized in a number of ways, including gross domestic product (for industrial categories), or total disposable income (for household categories; population times average income per capita, or number of households times average household income per capita). Brunei, Nauru, Kuwait, and Lichtenstein are examples of countries with high income per capita, but not assumed to be efficient, given low aggregate level of income (or gross domestic product); these countries have, however, high incomes per capita but may not benefit from the efficiencies derived from economies of scale associated with large economies. Only countries with high income per capita and large aggregate income are assumed efficient. This greatly restricts the pool of countries to those in the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), like the United States, or the United Kingdom (which were earlier than other large OECD economies to liberalize their markets).
The selection of countries is further reduced by the fact that not all countries in the OECD report industry revenues at the category level. Countries that typically have ample data at the aggregate level that meet the efficiency criteria include the United States, the United Kingdom and in some cases France and Germany.
Latent demand is therefore estimated using data collected for relatively efficient markets from independent data sources (e.g. Euromonitor, Mintel, Thomson Financial Services, the U.S. Industrial Outlook, the World Resources Institute, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, various agencies from the United Nations, industry trade associations, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank). Depending on original data sources used, the definition of “manufacturing commercial, industrial, and institutional electric lighting fixtures” is established. In the case of this report, the data were reported at the aggregate level, with no further breakdown or definition. In other words, any potential product or service that might be incorporated within manufacturing commercial, industrial, and institutional electric lighting fixtures falls under this category. Public sources rarely report data at the disaggregated level in order to protect private information from individual firms that might dominate a specific product-market. These sources will therefore aggregate across components of a category and report only the aggregate to the public. While private data are certainly available, this report only relies on public data at the aggregate level without reliance on the summation of various category components. In other words, this report does not aggregate a number of components to arrive at the “whole”. Rather, it starts with the “whole”, and estimates the whole for all cities and the world at large (without needing to know the specific parts that went into the whole in the first place).
Given this caveat, this study covers “manufacturing commercial, industrial, and institutional electric lighting fixtures” as defined by the North American Industrial Classification system or NAICS (pronounced “nakes”). manufacturing commercial, industrial, and institutional electric lighting fixtures The NAICS code for manufacturing commercial, industrial, and institutional electric lighting fixtures is 335122. It is for this definition of manufacturing commercial, industrial, and institutional electric lighting fixtures that the aggregate latent demand estimates are derived. “Manufacturing commercial, industrial, and institutional electric lighting fixtures” is specifically defined as follows:
335122
This U.S. industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in manufacturing commercial, industrial, and institutional electric lighting fixtures.
3351221
COMMERCIAL AND INSTITUTIONAL_TYPE ELECTRIC LIGHTING FIXTURES, INCLUDING PARTS AND ACCESSORIES
33512210
Commercial and institutional~type electric lighting fixtures, including parts and accessories
3351221000
Commercial and institutional~type electric lighting fixtures, including parts and accessories
33512211
Commercial and institutional_type electric lighting fixtures, including parts and accessories
3351221100
Commercial and institutional_type electric lighting fixtures, including parts and accessories
3351221102
Commercial and institutional surface or pendant incandescent utilitarian and ornamental lighting fixtures
3351221104
Commercial and institutional recessed IC (direct contact with ceiling insulation) incandescent utilitarian and ornamental lighting fixtures
3351221106
Commercial and institutional recessed non~IC (3~inch minimum clearance from ceiling insulation) incandescent utilitarian and ornamental lighting fixtures
3351221108
Commercial and institutional single circuit track lighting lengths and accessories
3351221111
Commercial and institutional multiple circuit track lighting lengths and accessories
3351221112
Commercial and institutional track lighting line voltage heads
3351221114
Commercial and institutional track lighting low voltage heads
3351221116
Commercial and institutional track lighting lengths and heads sold together (kits)
3351221118
Commercial and institutional specialized custom track lighting , including fixtures, chandeliers, and church lighting
3351221121
Other commercial and institutional incandescent lighting fixtures, including interior display and PAR lampholders
33512212
Commercial and institutional high intensity discharge lighting fixtures
3351221222
Commercial and institutional surface or pendant high intensity discharge lighting fixtures
3351221224
Commercial and institutional indirect high intensity discharge lighting fixtures
3351221226
Commercial and institutional open reflector recessed non~IC (3~inch minimum clearance from ceiling insulation) high intensity discharge lighting fixtures
3351221228
Commercial and institutional enclosed recessed non~IC (3~inch minimum clearance from ceiling insulation) high intensity discharge lighting fixtures
3351221231
Commercial and institutional open reflector recessed IC (direct contact with ceiling insulation) high intensity discharge lighting fixtures
3351221232
Commercial and institutional enclosed recessed IC (direct contact with ceiling insulation) high intensity discharge lighting fixtures
33512213
Commercial and institutional fluorescent recessed troffers, air handling lighting fixtures
3351221333
Commercial and institutional lensed 2 feet by 4 feet, 4 lamp fluorescent recessed troffers, air handling fixtures (including heat extraction versions)
3351221334
Commercial and institutional lensed 2 feet by 4 feet, 3 lamp fluorescent recessed troffers, air handling fixtures (including heat extraction versions)
3351221335
Commercial and institutional lensed 2 feet by 4 feet, 2 lamp fluorescent recessed troffers, air handling fixtures (including heat extraction versions)
3351221336
All other commercial and institutional lensed, fluorescent recessed troffers, air handling fixtures (including heat extraction versions)
3351221337
Commercial and institutional metal louvered 2 feet by 4 feet, 4 lamp fluorescent recessed troffers, air handling fixtures (including heat extraction versions)
3351221338
Commercial and institutional metal louvered 2 feet by 4 feet, 3 lamp fluorescent recessed troffers, air handling fixtures (including heat extraction versions)
3351221339
Commercial and institutional metal louvered 2 feet by 4 feet, 2 lamp fluorescent recessed troffers, air handling fixtures (including heat extraction versions)
3351221340
All other commercial and institutional metal louvered, fluorescent recessed troffers, air handling fixtures (including heat extraction versions)
3351221341
Commercial and institutional nonmetal louvered 2 feet by 4 feet, 4 lamp fluorescent recessed troffers, air handling fixtures (including heat extraction versions)
3351221342
Commercial and institutional nonmetal louvered 2 feet by 4 feet, 3 lamp fluorescent recessed troffers, air handling fixtures (including heat extraction versions)
3351221343
Commercial and institutional nonmetal louvered 2 feet by 4 feet, 2 lamp fluorescent recessed troffers, air handling fixtures (including heat extraction versions)
3351221344
All other commercial and institutional nonmetal louvered, fluorescent recessed troffers, air handling fixtures (including heat extraction versions)
33512214
Commercial and institutional fluorescent recessed troffers, nonair handling lighting fixtures
3351221401
Commercial and institutional lensed 2 feet by 4 feet, 4 lamp fluorescent recessed troffers, nonair handling fixtures (including heat extraction versions)
3351221402
Commercial and institutional lensed 2 feet by 4 feet, 3 lamp fluorescent recessed troffers, nonair handling fixtures (including heat extraction versions)
3351221403
Commercial and institutional lensed 2 feet by 4 feet, 2 lamp fluorescent recessed troffers, nonair handling fixtures (including heat extraction versions)
3351221404
All other commercial and institutional lensed, nonair handling fluorescent recessed troffer fixtures (including heat extraction versions)
3351221405
Commercial and institutional metal louvered 2 feet by 4 feet, 4 lamp fluorescent recessed troffers, nonair handling fixtures (including heat extraction versions)
3351221406
Commercial and institutional metal louvered 2 feet by 4 feet, 3 lamp fluorescent recessed troffers, nonair handling fixtures (including heat extraction versions)
3351221407
Commercial and institutional metal louvered 2 feet by 4 feet, 2 lamp fluorescent recessed troffers, nonair handling fixtures (including heat extraction versions)
3351221408
All other commercial and institutional metal louvered nonair handling fluorescent recessed troffer fixtures (including heat extraction versions)
3351221409
Commercial and institutional nonmetal louvered 2 feet by 4 feet, 4 lamp fluorescent recessed troffers, nonair handling fixtures (including heat extraction versions)
3351221411
Commercial and institutional nonmetal louvered 2 feet by 4 feet, 3 lamp fluorescent recessed troffers, nonair handling fixtures (including heat extraction versions)
3351221412
Commercial and institutional nonmetal louvered 2 feet by 4 feet, 2 lamp fluorescent recessed troffers, nonair handling fixtures (including heat extraction versions)
3351221413
All other commercial and institutional nonmetal louvered nonair handling fluorescent recessed troffer fixtures (including heat extraction versions)
33512215
Commercial and institutional fluorescent surface and recessed striplights
3351221546
Commercial and institutional fluorescent surface striplights
3351221548
Commercial and institutional fluorescent recessed striplights
33512216
Commercial and institutional fluorescent plastic wraparounds
3351221601
Commercial and institutional 4 foot, 2 lamp fluorescent plastic wraparounds
3351221602
Commercial and institutional 4 foot, 4 lamp fluorescent plastic wraparounds
3351221603
All other commercial and institutional fluorescent plastic wraparounds
33512217
Other fluorescent commercial and institutional fixtures and specific function lighting of all types
3351221751
Commercial and institutional fluorescent ceiling systems (including luminous ceilings)
3351221754
Commercial and institutional wall mounted fluorescent lighting fixtures
3351221756
Commercial and institutional under cabinet mount task fluorescent lighting fixtures
3351221758
All other commercial and institutional lensed surface and pendant lighting fixtures
3351221761
All other commercial and institutional louvered surface and pendant lighting fixtures
3351221762
Commercial and institutional recessed IC (direct contact with ceiling insulation) compact fluorescent downlights
3351221764
Commercial and institutional recessed non~IC (3~inch minimum clearance from ceiling insulation) compact fluorescent downlights
3351221766
Commercial and institutional enclosed and gasketed incandescent high intensity discharge and fluorescent (clean room) lighting fixtures
3351221768
Commercial and institutional indirect incandescent high intensity discharge and fluorescent furniture mount lighting fixtures
3351221771
Commercial and institutional indirect incandescent high intensity discharge and fluorescent pendant mount lighting fixtures
3351221772
Commercial and institutional indoor incandescent high intensity discharge and fluorescent signs, including electro~luminescence (exit, directional, etc.)
3351221774
Commercial and institutional indoor emergency incandescent high intensity discharge and fluorescent lighting fixtures (automatic self~powered)
3351221776
Commercial and institutional vandal resistant incandescent high intensity discharge and fluorescent lighting fixtures (specialty products designed for this application)
3351221778
All other commercial and institutional specific function incandescent, high intensity discharge and fluorescent lighting fixtures
33512218
Components and renewal parts for commercial and institutional lighting fixtures sold separately
3351221881
Components and renewal parts for commercial and institutional lighting fixtures sold separately
3351222
Electric lighting fixtures, commercial and institutional types
33512220
Industrial~type electric lighting fixtures, including parts and accessories
3351222000
Industrial~type electric lighting fixtures, including parts and accessories
335122201
Incandescent fixtures
33512220111
Utilitarian and ornamental types, pendant or surface mounted
33512220115
Utilitarian and ornamental types, recessed
33512220118
Specialized custom types, excluding portable
33512220119
Other incandescent fixtures, including portable
335122202
Mercury and other high-intensity discharge fixtures
335122203
Fluorescent fixtures, except portable
33512220351
Recessed air handling
33512220353
Recessed non-air handling
33512220354
Striplights
33512220355
Ceiling systems
33512220356
Plastic wraparound
33512220357
Wall mounted
33512220358
Surface or pendant
33512220359
Enclosed and gasketed
33512220361
Indoor signs
33512220362
Indoor emergency lighting
33512220363
All other fluorescent fixtures
335122204
Component or renewal parts for commercial or institutional fixtures, sold separately
33512221
Industrial_type electric lighting fixtures, including parts and accessories
3351222100
Industrial_type electric lighting fixtures, including parts and accessories
3351222102
General incandescent industrial lighting fixtures (except portable)
3351222104
General fluorescent industrial lighting fixtures (except portable)
3351222106
General open reflector high intensity discharge industrial lighting fixtures (including integrally mounted and remote ballasts)
3351222108
General enclosed reflector high intensity discharge industrial lighting fixtures (including integrally mounted and remote ballasts)
3351222111
General parking garage high intensity discharge industrial lighting fixtures specifically designed for this application (including integrally mounted and remote ballast)
3351222112
Incandescent (including portable) hazardous industrial lighting fixtures (UL listed, class, division, group)
3351222114
Fluorescent (including portable) hazardous industrial lighting fixtures (UL listed, class, division, group)
3351222116
High intensity discharge (including integrally mounted and remote ballasts) hazardous industrial lighting fixtures (UL listed, class, division, group)
33512222
Components and renewal parts for industrial~type electric lighting fixtures, sold separately
3351222218
Components and renewal parts for industrial~type electric lighting fixtures, sold separately
3351223
Electric lighting fixtures, industrial types
335122305
General fixtures, except portable
33512230511
Incandescent fixtures
33512230513
Fluorescent fixtures
33512230521
Mercury and other high-intensity discharge fixtures
335122306
Other industrial fixtures
33512230616
Incandescent, including portable
33512230617
Fluorescent, including portable
33512230619
Mercury and other high-intensity discharge fixtures
335122307
Components or renewal parts for industrial fixtures, sold separately
335122M
Miscellaneous receipts
335122P
Primary products
335122S
Secondary products
335122SM
Secondary products and miscellaneous receipts
Furthermore, the definition of NAICS code 335122 includes the following:
Ceiling lighting fixtures, commercial, industrial, and institutional, manufacturi
Chandeliers, commercial, industrial, and institutional electric, manufacturing
Commercial lighting fixtures, electric, manufacturing
Desk lamps, commercial, electric, manufacturing
Emergency lighting (i.e., battery backup) manufacturing
Fluorescent lighting fixtures, commercial, institutional, and industrial electric
Grow light fixtures (except residential) manufacturing
Illuminated indoor lighting fixtures (e.g., directional, exit) manufacturing
Industrial lighting fixtures, electric, manufacturing
Industrial mercury lighting fixtures, electric, manufacturing
Institutional lighting fixtures, electric, manufacturing
Lamps (i.e., lighting fixtures), commercial, industrial, and institutional, manuf
Lighting fixtures, commercial electric, manufacturing
Lighting fixtures, industrial electric, manufacturing
Lighting fixtures, institutional electric, manufacturing
Luminous panel ceilings, electric, manufacturing
Pendant lamps (except residential), electric, manufacturing
Recessed lighting housings and trim (except residential), electric, manufacturing
Solar lighting fixtures (except residential), electric, manufacturing
Wall lamps (i.e., lighting fixtures), commericial, institutional, and industrial.
Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing
Based on the aggregate view of manufacturing commercial, industrial, and institutional electric lighting fixtures as defined above, data were then collected for as many similar countries and cities as possible for that same definition, at the same level of the value chain. This generates a convenience sample from which comparable figures are available. If the series in question do not reflect the same accounting period, then adjustments are made. In order to eliminate short-term effects of business cycles, the series are smoothed using an 2 year moving average weighting scheme (longer weighting schemes do not substantially change the results). If data are available for a country, but these reflect short-run aberrations due to exogenous shocks (such as would be the case of beef sales in a country stricken with foot and mouth disease), these observations were dropped or 'filtered' from the analysis.
Step 3. Filling in Missing Values
In some cases, data are available for countries or cities on a sporadic basis. In other cases, data may be available for only one year. From a Bayesian perspective, these observations should be given greatest weight in estimating missing years. Assuming that other factors are held constant, the missing years are extrapolated using changes and growth in aggregate national income. Based on the overriding philosophy of a long-run consumption function (defined earlier), cities which have missing data for any given year, are estimated based on historical dynamics of aggregate income for that country.
Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation
Given the data available from the first three steps, the latent demand is estimated using a “varying-parameter cross-sectionally pooled time series model”. Simply stated, the effect of income on latent demand is assumed to be constant across cities unless there is empirical evidence to suggest that this effect varies (i.e., the slope of the income effect is not necessarily same for all countries). This assumption applies across cities along the aggregate consumption function, but also over time (i.e., not all cities are perceived to have the same income growth prospects over time and this effect can vary from city to city as well). Another way of looking at this is to say that latent demand for manufacturing commercial, industrial, and institutional electric lighting fixtures is more likely to be similar across cities that have similar characteristics in terms of economic development (i.e., African cities will have similar latent demand structures controlling for the income variation across the pool of African cities).
This approach is useful across cities for which some notion of non-linearity exists in the aggregate consumption function. For some categories, however, the reader must realize that the numbers will reflect a city’s contribution to global latent demand and may never be realized in the form of local sales. For certain category combinations this will result in what at first glance will be odd results. For example, the latent demand for the category “space vehicles” will exist for cities in “Togo” even though they have no space program. The assumption is that if the economies in these countries did not exist, the world aggregate for these categories would be lower. The share attributed to these cities is based on a proportion of their income (however small) being used to consume the category in question (i.e., perha
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