The 2011 Report on Manufacturing Power, Distribution, and Specialty Transformers; Electric Motors, Generators, and Motor Generator Sets; Switchgear and Switchboard Apparatus; Relays; and Industrial Controls: World Market Segmentation by City

Market Potential Estimation Methodology Overview This study covers the world outlook for manufacturing power, distribution, and specialty transformers; electric motors, generators, and motor generator sets; switchgear and switchboard apparatus; relays; and industrial controls across more than 2000 cities. For the year reported, estimates are given for the latent demand, or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.), for the city in question (in millions of U.S. dollars), the percent share the city is of the region and of the globe. These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a city vis-à-vis others. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each country and across countries, latent demand estimates are created. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved. This study does not report actual sales data (which are simply unavailable, in a comparable or consistent manner in virtually all of the cities of the world). This study gives, however, my estimates for the worldwide latent demand, or the P.I.E. for manufacturing power, distribution, and specialty transformers; electric motors, generators, and motor generator sets; switchgear and switchboard apparatus; relays; and industrial controls. It also shows how the P.I.E. is divided across the world’s cities. In order to make these estimates, a multi-stage methodology was employed that is often taught in courses on international strategic planning at graduate schools of business. What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.? The concept of latent demand is rather subtle. The term latent typically refers to something that is dormant, not observable, or not yet realized. Demand is the notion of an economic quantity that a target population or market requires under different assumptions of price, quality, and distribution, among other factors. Latent demand, therefore, is commonly defined by economists as the industry earnings of a market when that market becomes accessible and attractive to serve by competing firms. It is a measure, therefore, of potential industry earnings (P.I.E.) or total revenues (not profit) if a market is served in an efficient manner. It is typically expressed as the total revenues potentially extracted by firms. The “market” is defined at a given level in the value chain. There can be latent demand at the retail level, at the wholesale level, the manufacturing level, and the raw materials level (the P.I.E. of higher levels of the value chain being always smaller than the P.I.E. of levels at lower levels of the same value chain, assuming all levels maintain minimum profitability). The latent demand for manufacturing power, distribution, and specialty transformers; electric motors, generators, and motor generator sets; switchgear and switchboard apparatus; relays; and industrial controls is not actual or historic sales. Nor is latent demand future sales. In fact, latent demand can be lower either lower or higher than actual sales if a market is inefficient (i.e., not representative of relatively competitive levels). Inefficiencies arise from a number of factors, including the lack of international openness, cultural barriers to consumption, regulations, and cartel-like behavior on the part of firms. In general, however, latent demand is typically larger than actual sales in a city market. Another reason why sales do not equate to latent demand is exchange rates. In this report, all figures assume the long-run efficiency of currency markets. Figures, therefore, equate values based on purchasing power parities across countries. Short-run distortions in the value of the dollar, therefore, do not figure into the estimates. Purchasing power parity estimates of country income were collected from official sources, and extrapolated using standard econometric models. The report uses the dollar as the currency of comparison, but not as a measure of transaction volume. The units used in this report are: US $ mln. For reasons discussed later, this report does not consider the notion of “unit quantities”, only total latent revenues (i.e., a calculation of price times quantity is never made, though one is implied). The units used in this report are U.S. dollars not adjusted for inflation (i.e., the figures incorporate inflationary trends) and not adjusted for future dynamics in exchange rates (i.e., the figures reflect average exchange rates over recent history). If inflation rates or exchange rates vary in a substantial way compared to recent experience, actually sales can also exceed latent demand (when expressed in U.S. dollars, not adjusted for inflation). On the other hand, latent demand can be typically higher than actual sales as there are often distribution inefficiencies that reduce actual sales below the level of latent demand. As mentioned earlier, this study is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved. If fact, all the current products or services on the market can cease to exist in their present form (i.e., at a brand-, R&D specification, or corporate-image level) and all the players can be replaced by other firms (i.e., via exits, entries, mergers, bankruptcies, etc.), and there will still be an international latent demand for manufacturing power, distribution, and specialty transformers; electric motors, generators, and motor generator sets; switchgear and switchboard apparatus; relays; and industrial controls at the aggregate level. Product and service offering details, and the actual identity of the players involved, while important for certain issues, are relatively unimportant for estimates of latent demand. The Methodology In order to estimate the latent demand for manufacturing power, distribution, and specialty transformers; electric motors, generators, and motor generator sets; switchgear and switchboard apparatus; relays; and industrial controls on a city-by-city basis, I used a multi-stage approach. Before applying the approach, one needs a basic theory from which such estimates are created. In this case, I heavily rely on the use of certain basic economic assumptions. In particular, there is an assumption governing the shape and type of aggregate latent demand functions. Latent demand functions relate the income of a country, city, state, household, or individual to realized consumption. Latent demand (often realized as consumption when an industry is efficient), at any level of the value chain, takes place if an equilibrium in realized. For firms to serve a market, they must perceive a latent demand and be able to serve that demand at a minimal return. The single most important variable determining consumption, assuming latent demand exists, is income (or other financial resources at higher levels of the value chain). Other factors that can pivot or shape demand curves include external or exogenous shocks (i.e., business cycles), and or changes in utility for the product in question. Ignoring, for the moment, exogenous shocks and variations in utility across countries, the aggregate relation between income and consumption has been a central theme in economics. The figure below concisely summarizes one aspect of problem. In the 1930s, John Meynard Keynes conjectured that as incomes rise, the average propensity to consume would fall. The average propensity to consume is the level of consumption divided by the level of income, or the slope of the line from the origin to the consumption function. He estimated this relationship empirically and found it to be true in the short-run (mostly based on cross-sectional data). The higher the income, the lower the average propensity to consume. This type of consumption function is labeled "A" in the figure below (note the rather flat slope of the curve). In the 1940s, another macroeconomist, Simon Kuznets, estimated long-run consumption functions which indicated that the marginal propensity to consume was rather constant (using time series data across countries). This type of consumption function is show as "B" in the figure below (note the higher slope and zero-zero intercept). The average propensity to consume is constant. Is it declining or is it constant? A number of other economists, notably Franco Modigliani and Milton Friedman, in the 1950s (and Irving Fisher earlier), explained why the two functions were different using various assumptions on intertemporal budget constraints, savings, and wealth. The shorter the time horizon, the more consumption can depend on wealth (earned in previous years) and business cycles. In the long-run, however, the propensity to consume is more constant. Similarly, in the long run, households, industries or countries with no income eventually have no consumption (wealth is depleted). While the debate surrounding beliefs about how income and consumption are related and interesting, in this study a very particular school of thought is adopted. In particular, we are considering the latent demand for manufacturing power, distribution, and specialty transformers; electric motors, generators, and motor generator sets; switchgear and switchboard apparatus; relays; and industrial controls across some 230 countries. The smallest have fewer than 10,000 inhabitants. I assume that all of these counties fall along a "long-run" aggregate consumption function. This long-run function applies despite some of these countries having wealth, current income dominates the latent demand for manufacturing power, distribution, and specialty transformers; electric motors, generators, and motor generator sets; switchgear and switchboard apparatus; relays; and industrial controls. So, latent demand in the long-run has a zero intercept. However, I allow firms to have different propensities to consume (including being on consumption functions with differing slopes, which can account for differences in industrial organization, and end-user preferences). Given this overriding philosophy, I will now describe the methodology used to create the latent demand estimates for manufacturing power, distribution, and specialty transformers; electric motors, generators, and motor generator sets; switchgear and switchboard apparatus; relays; and industrial controls. Since ICON Group has asked me to apply this methodology to a large number of categories, the rather academic discussion below is general and can be applied to a wide variety of categories, not just manufacturing power, distribution, and specialty transformers; electric motors, generators, and motor generator sets; switchgear and switchboard apparatus; relays; and industrial controls. Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection Any study of latent demand across countries requires that some standard be established to define “efficiently served”. Having implemented various alternatives and matched these with market outcomes, I have found that the optimal approach is to assume that certain key countries or cities are more likely to be at or near efficiency than others. These are given greater weight than others in the estimation of latent demand compared to others for which no known data are available. Of the many alternatives, I have found the assumption that the world’s highest aggregate income and highest income-per-capita markets reflect the best standards for “efficiency”. High aggregate income alone is not sufficient (i.e., China has high aggregate income, but low income per capita and can not assumed to be efficient). Aggregate income can be operationalized in a number of ways, including gross domestic product (for industrial categories), or total disposable income (for household categories; population times average income per capita, or number of households times average household income per capita). Brunei, Nauru, Kuwait, and Lichtenstein are examples of countries with high income per capita, but not assumed to be efficient, given low aggregate level of income (or gross domestic product); these countries have, however, high incomes per capita but may not benefit from the efficiencies derived from economies of scale associated with large economies. Only countries with high income per capita and large aggregate income are assumed efficient. This greatly restricts the pool of countries to those in the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), like the United States, or the United Kingdom (which were earlier than other large OECD economies to liberalize their markets). The selection of countries is further reduced by the fact that not all countries in the OECD report industry revenues at the category level. Countries that typically have ample data at the aggregate level that meet the efficiency criteria include the United States, the United Kingdom and in some cases France and Germany. Latent demand is therefore estimated using data collected for relatively efficient markets from independent data sources (e.g. Euromonitor, Mintel, Thomson Financial Services, the U.S. Industrial Outlook, the World Resources Institute, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, various agencies from the United Nations, industry trade associations, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank). Depending on original data sources used, the definition of “manufacturing power, distribution, and specialty transformers; electric motors, generators, and motor generator sets; switchgear and switchboard apparatus; relays; and industrial controls” is established. In the case of this report, the data were reported at the aggregate level, with no further breakdown or definition. In other words, any potential product or service that might be incorporated within manufacturing power, distribution, and specialty transformers; electric motors, generators, and motor generator sets; switchgear and switchboard apparatus; relays; and industrial controls falls under this category. Public sources rarely report data at the disaggregated level in order to protect private information from individual firms that might dominate a specific product-market. These sources will therefore aggregate across components of a category and report only the aggregate to the public. While private data are certainly available, this report only relies on public data at the aggregate level without reliance on the summation of various category components. In other words, this report does not aggregate a number of components to arrive at the “whole”. Rather, it starts with the “whole”, and estimates the whole for all cities and the world at large (without needing to know the specific parts that went into the whole in the first place). Given this caveat, this study covers “manufacturing power, distribution, and specialty transformers; electric motors, generators, and motor generator sets; switchgear and switchboard apparatus; relays; and industrial controls” as defined by the North American Industrial Classification system or NAICS (pronounced “nakes”). manufacturing power, distribution, and specialty transformers; electric motors, generators, and motor generator sets; switchgear and switchboard apparatus; relays; and industrial controls The NAICS code for manufacturing power, distribution, and specialty transformers; electric motors, generators, and motor generator sets; switchgear and switchboard apparatus; relays; and industrial controls is 3353. It is for this definition of manufacturing power, distribution, and specialty transformers; electric motors, generators, and motor generator sets; switchgear and switchboard apparatus; relays; and industrial controls that the aggregate latent demand estimates are derived. “Manufacturing power, distribution, and specialty transformers; electric motors, generators, and motor generator sets; switchgear and switchboard apparatus; relays; and industrial controls” is specifically defined as follows: 3353 Electrical Equipment Manufacturing  33531 This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in manufacturing power, distribution, and specialty transformers; electric motors, generators, and motor generator sets; switchgear and switchboard apparatus; relays; and industrial controls.  335311 This U.S. industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in manufacturing power, distribution, and specialty transformers (except electronic components). Industrial-type and consumer-type transformers in this industry vary (e.g., step up or step down) voltage but do not convert alternating to direct or direct to alternating current.  3353111 POWER AND DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMERS, EXCEPT PARTS  33531111 Distribution transformers (except general_purpose), overhead type, single_ phase, liquid_immersed, 500 kVA and smaller (except parts)  3353111101 Distribution transformers (except general_purpose), overhead type, single_ phase, liquid_immersed, 500 kVA and smaller (except parts)  33531112 Distribution transformers (except general_purpose), compartmentalized pad_ mounted, single_phase, liquid_immersed, 500 kVA and smaller (except parts)  3353111204 Distribution transformers (except general_purpose), compartmentalized pad_ mounted, single_phase, liquid_immersed, 500 kVA and smaller (except parts)  33531113 Other distribution transformers (except general_purpose), including network transformers, single_phase, and liquid_immersed (all voltages) (except parts)  3353111307 Distribution transformers (except general_purpose), subsurface and subway types, single_phase, liquid_immersed, 500 kVA and smaller (except parts)  3353111311 Distribution three_phase transformers (except general_purpose), liquid_ immersed, all voltages, 500 kVA and smaller (except parts)  3353111313 Distribution network transformers (except general_purpose), all ratings, excluding network protectors (except parts)  3353111316 Distribution transformers (except general_purpose), single_phase and three_ phase, pad_mounted (dry), 500 kVA and smaller (except parts)  33531114 Small conventional and power transformers, single_ and three_phase (all voltages), primary and secondary unit substations  3353111419 Small power transformers, liquid_immersed, single_ and three_phase (all voltages), compartmentalized pad_mounted, subsurface underground and conventional subway type, 501 kVA through 2500 kVA  3353111422 Small conventional transformers and autotransformers, liquid_immersed, single_ and three_phase (all voltages), primary unit and single circuit unit substations, 501 kVA through 2500 kVA  3353111425 Small power transformers, single_ and three_phase (all voltages), liquid_ immersed conventionals, primary unit and single circuit unit substations, 2501 kVA through 10,000 kVA  3353111428 Dry_type small conventional power transformers, single_ and three_phase, all voltages, primary unit substation (including core and coil units)  3353111431 Secondary unit substation power transformers, liquid_immersed, all kVA ratings  3353111434 Secondary unit substation power transformers, dry_type, all kVA ratings  33531115 Large liquid_immersed power transformers with and without load_tap_changing  3353111537 Large liquid immersed power transformers with load_tap_changing, 10,001 kVA, OA to 30,000 kVA, OA (50,000 kVA, top FOA)  3353111541 Large liquid immersed power transformers without load_tap_changing, 10,001 kVA, OA to 30,000 kVA, OA (50,000 kVA, top FOA)  3353111543 Large liquid_immersed power transformers with load_tap_changing, 30,001 kVA, OA (50,000 kVA, top FOA) to 100,000 kVA, OA (167,000 kVA, top FOA)  3353111546 Large liquid_immersed power transformers without load_tap_changing, 30,001 kVA, OA (50,001 kVA, top FOA) to 100,000 kVA, OA (167,000 kVA, top FOA)  3353111549 Large liquid_immersed power transformers with load_tap_changing, 100,001 kVA, OA (167,001 kVA, top FOA) and larger  3353111552 Large liquid_immersed power transformers without load_tap_changing, 100,001 kVA, OA (167,001 kVA, top FOA) and larger  3353113 Fluorescent lamp ballast  33531131 Specialty transformers, except fluorescent lamp ballasts  3353113101 Open core and coil units, excluding machine tool control transformers and all units end_bell enclosed (250 VA and under)  3353113104 Machine tool control transformers  3353113107 Transformers for arc welders  3353113109 Indoor and outdoor current instrument transformers  3353113113 Indoor and outdoor voltage instrument transformers  3353113115 High intensity discharge lamp transformers (ballasts)  3353113116 All other specialty transformers (including luminous tube and ignition transformers), excluding internal combustion engine ignition  3353115 FLUORESCENT LAMP BALLASTS  33531150 Fluorescent lamp ballasts  3353115000 Fluorescent lamp ballasts  33531151 Fluorescent lamp ballasts  3353115100 Fluorescent lamp ballasts  3353115103 Fluorescent lamp ballasts, magnetic type, uncorrected power_factor type (less than 85 percent power factor), preheat start, single_ended compact lamps  3353115105 Fluorescent lamp ballasts, magnetic type, uncorrected power_factor type (less than 85 percent power factor), preheat start, linear and circline lamps, up to and including 20 watts  3353115107 Fluorescent lamp ballasts, magnetic type, uncorrected power_factor type (less than 85 percent power factor), preheat start, linear and circline lamps, 21 watts and over  3353115109 Fluorescent lamp ballasts, magnetic type, uncorrected power_factor type (less than 85 percent power factor), all other, including rapid start  3353115111 Fluorescent lamp ballasts, magnetic type, corrected power_factor type (85 percent power factor or above), slimline and instant start, two_lamp, 75W/ 96T12/IS and 57W/72T12/IS  3353115113 Fluorescent lamp ballasts, magnetic type, corrected power_factor type (85 percent power factor or above), other slimline and instant start  3353115115 Fluorescent lamp ballasts, magnetic type, corrected power_factor type (85 percent power factor or above), rapid start, one_lamp, 40W/48T12/RS  3353115117 Fluorescent lamp ballasts, magnetic type, corrected power_factor type (85 percent power factor or above), rapid start, two_lamp, 40W/48T12/RS  3353115119 Fluorescent lamp ballasts, magnetic type, corrected power_factor type (85 percent power factor or above), rapid start, two_lamp, 32W/48T8/RS  3353115121 Fluorescent lamp ballasts, magnetic type, corrected power_factor type (85 percent power factor or above), all other rapid start, 800 to 1,000 mA  3353115123 Fluorescent lamp ballasts, magnetic type, corrected power_factor type (85 percent power factor or above), all other rapid start, 1,500 mA  3353115125 Fluorescent lamp ballasts, magnetic type, corrected power_factor type (85 percent power factor or above), all other rapid start, other  3353115127 Fluorescent lamp ballasts, magnetic type, corrected power_factor type (85 percent power factor or above), preheat start, single_ended compact lamps  3353115129 Fluorescent lamp ballasts, magnetic type, corrected power_factor type (85 percent power factor or above), preheat start, linear and circline lamps  3353115131 Fluorescent lamp ballasts, magnetic type, corrected power_factor type (85 percent power factor or above), all other  3353115133 Fluorescent lamp ballasts, electronic type, uncorrected power_factor type (less than 90 percent power factor), single_ended compact lamps  3353115135 Fluorescent lamp ballasts, electronic type, uncorrected power_factor type (less than 90 percent power factor), all other  3353115137 Fluorescent lamp ballasts, electronic type, corrected power_factor type (90 percent power factor or above), instant start, one_ and two_lamp, 32W/ 48T8  3353115139 Fluorescent lamp ballasts, electronic type, corrected power_factor type (90 percent power factor or above), instant start, three_ and four_lamp, 32W/ 48T8  3353115141 Fluorescent lamp ballasts, electronic type, corrected power_factor type (90 percent power factor or above), instant start, two_lamp, 59W/96T8  3353115143 Fluorescent lamp ballasts, electronic type, corrected power_factor type (90 percent power factor or above), instant start, two_lamp, 75W/96T12/IS  3353115144 Fluorescent lamp ballasts, electronic type, corrected power_factor type (90 percent power factor or above), instant start, linear T5  3353115145 Fluorescent lamp ballasts, electronic type, corrected power_factor type (90 percent power factor or above), instant start, all other  3353115147 Fluorescent lamp ballasts, electronic type, corrected power_factor type (90 percent power factor or above), rapid start, program start, all 32W/48T8  3353115149 Fluorescent lamp ballasts, electronic type, corrected power_factor type (90 percent power factor or above), rapid start, program start, all other T8, 4 ft. and less  3353115151 Fluorescent lamp ballasts, electronic type, corrected power_factor type (90 percent power factor or above), rapid start, program start, two_lamp, 40W/ 48T12/RS  3353115153 Fluorescent lamp ballasts, electronic type, corrected power_factor type (90 percent power factor or above), rapid start, program start, 800 mA  3353115154 Fluorescent lamp ballasts, electronic type, corrected power_factor type (90 percent power factor or above), rapid start, program start, compact fluorescent up to and including 26W  3353115155 All other rapid start electronic corrected power~factor type (90 percent power factor or above)  3353115156 Fluorescent lamp ballasts, electronic type, corrected power_factor type (90 percent power factor or above), rapid start, program start, compact fluorescent 27W and over  3353115157 All other electronic corrected power~factor type (90 percent power factor or above)  3353115158 Fluorescent lamp ballasts, electronic type, corrected power_factor type (90 percent power factor or above), rapid start, program start, linear T5, normal output  3353115160 Fluorescent lamp ballasts, electronic type, corrected power_factor type (90 percent power factor or above), rapid start, program start, linear T5, high output  3353115162 Fluorescent lamp ballasts, electronic type, corrected power_factor type (90 percent power factor or above), rapid start, program start, dimming, linear  3353115164 Fluorescent lamp ballasts, electronic type, corrected power_factor type (90 percent power factor or above), rapid start, program start, dimming, compact fluorescent  3353115166 Fluorescent lamp ballasts, electronic type, corrected power_factor type (90 percent power factor or above), rapid start, all other  3353115168 Fluorescent lamp ballasts, electronic type, corrected power_factor type (90 percent power factor or above), all other  3353116 Commercial, institutional and industrial general purpose transformers  3353117 Power regulators, boosters, and other transformers and parts for all transformer  33531171 Commercial, institutional, and industrial general_purpose transformers, all voltages  3353117101 Commercial, institutional, and industrial general_purpose transformers, single_ and three_phase, 3 kVA and below, all voltages  3353117104 Commercial, institutional, and industrial general_purpose transformers, single_ and three_phase, 3.01 kVA through 15 kVA, all voltages  3353117107 Commercial, institutional, and industrial general_purpose transformers, single_ and three_phase, 15.01 kVA through 100 kVA, all voltages  3353117111 Commercial, institutional, and industrial general_purpose transformers, single_ and three_phase, 100.01 kVA and above, all voltages  3353117113 Other commercial, institutional, and industrial general_purpose transformers, including saturable core reactors and voltage regulating transformers  3353118 Specialty transformers, except fluorescent lamp ballast  3353119 Power and distribution transformers, except parts  33531191 Power regulators, boosters, and other transformers and parts for all transformers  3353119101 Transmission and distribution voltage regulators, boosters, and other special_ purpose transformers  3353119104 Parts, including renewal and repair parts, subassemblies and accessories for all transformers  335311MM Miscellaneous receipts  335311P Primary products  335311SM Secondary products and miscellaneous receipts  335311SS Secondary products  335312 This U.S. industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in manufacturing electric motors (except internal combustion engine starting motors), power generators (except battery charging alternators for internal combustion engines), and motor generator sets (except turbine generator set units). This industry includes establishments rewinding armatures on a factory basis.  3353121 Fractional horsepower motors and generators (excluding hermetics)  33531210 Fractional horsepower motors (rated at less than 746 watts) (excluding hermetics)  3353121000 Fractional horsepower motors (rated at less than 746 watts) (excluding hermetics)  3353121001 AC and DC fractional horsepower motors used in automobile accessories (such as heaters, convertible tops, and automatic windows), excluding starter motors and generators (2 digit frame size)  3353121004 AC fractional horsepower motors used in aircraft and spacecraft, excluding generators (2 digit frame size)  3353121007 DC fractional horsepower motors used in aircraft and spacecraft, excluding generators (2 digit frame size)  3353121011 AC and DC fractional horsepower motors used in toys (all sizes) and clock type synch and subsynch timing (2 digit frame size)  3353121013 AC (noncommutated), skeleton type shaded pole single phase fractional horsepower motors, less than 2.75 inch diameter at widest pt (2 digit frame size)  3353121016 AC (noncommutated), skeleton type shaded pole single phase fractional horsepower motors, 2.75 inch diameter and over (2 digit frame size)  3353121019 AC (noncommutated), conventional type shaded pole fractional horsepower motors, less than 2.5 inch diameter (2 digit frame size)  3353121022 AC (noncommutated), 2 pole, conventional type shaded fractional horsepower motors, 2.5 to less than 3.75 inch diameter (2 digit frame size)  3353121025 AC (noncommutated), 4 pole, conventional type shaded fractional horsepower motors, 2.5 to less than 3.75 inch diameter (2 digit frame size)  3353121028 AC (noncommutated), 6 pole and over conventional type shaded fractional horsepower motors, 2.5 to less than 3.75 inch diameter (2 digit frame size)  3353121031 AC (noncommutated), conventional type shaded pole fractional horsepower motors, 3.75 to less than 4.375 inch diameter (2 digit frame size)  3353121034 AC (noncommutated), 2 through 4 pole conventional type shaded fractional horsepower motors, 4.375 to less than 5.375 inch diameter (2 digit frame size)  3353121037 AC (noncommutated), 6 pole and over, conventional type shaded fractional horsepower motors, 4.375 to less than 5.375 inch diameter (2 digit frame size)  3353121041 AC (noncommutated), conventional type shaded pole fractional horsepower motors, 5.375 inch diameter and over (2 digit frame size)  3353121043 AC (noncommutated), permanent split capacitor fractional horsepower motors, less than 2.5 inch diameter (2 digit frame size)  3353121046 AC (noncommutated), 2 pole permanent split capacitor fractional horsepower motors, 2.5 to less than 3.75 inch diameter (2 digit frame size)  3353121049 AC (noncommutated), 4 pole and over, permanent split capacitor fractional horsepower motors, 2.5 to less than 3.75 inch diameter (2 digit frame size)  3353121052 AC (noncommutated), 2 pole permanent split capacitor fractional horsepower motors, 3.75 to less than 4.375 inch diameter (2 digit frame size)  3353121055 AC (noncommutated), 4 pole permanent split capacitor fractional horsepower motors, 3.75 to less than 4.375 inch diameter (2 digit frame size)  3353121058 AC (noncommutated), 6 pole and over permanent split capacitor fractional horsepower motors, 3.75 to less than 4.375 inch diameter (2 digit frame size) 

1 INTRODUCTION & METHODOLOGY 1.1 Overview and Definitions 1.2 Market Potential Estimation Methodology 1.2.1 Overview 1.2.2 What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.? 1.2.3 The Methodology 1.2.3.1 Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection 1.2.3.2 Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing 1.2.3.3 Step 3. Filling in Missing Values 1.2.3.4 Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation 1.2.3.5 Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation 1.2.3.6 Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking 2 USING THE DATA 3 CITY SEGMENTS RANKED BY MARKET SIZE 3.1 Top 15 Markets 3.2 Markets 16 to 30 3.3 Remaining Cities by Market Rank 4 CITY SEGMENTS IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER 4.1 A: from Aalborg to Az Zawiyah 4.2 B: from Bacolod to Bydgoszcz 4.3 C: from Caaguazu to Cyangugu 4.4 D: from Da Nang to Dzhizak 4.5 E: from East London to Esteli 4.6 F: from Fagatogo to Funchal 4.7 G: from Gabes to Gyumri 4.8 H: from Hachinohe to Hyderabad 4.9 I: from Iasi to Izmir 4.10 J: from Jaboatao to Jyvaskyla 4.11 K: from Kabul to Kzyl-Orda 4.12 L: from La Ceiba to Lyon 4.13 M: from Macae to Mzuzu 4.14 N: from Nacala to Nzerekore 4.15 O: from Oaklahoma City to Oyem 4.16 Ö: from Örebro to Örebro 4.17 P: from Pago Pago to Pyuthan 4.18 Q: from Qandahar to Quito 4.19 R: from Rabat to Rustavi 4.20 S: from S. Luis Potosi to Szombathely 4.21 T: from Tabligbo to Tyre 4.22 U: from Uberaba to Utulei 4.23 V: from Vacoas-Phoenix to Vukovar 4.24 W: from Wadi Medani to Wuhan 4.25 X: from Xalapa to Xi'an 4.26 Y: from Yamagata to Yungkang 4.27 Z: from Zadar to Zvishavane 5 CITY SEGMENTS RANKED BY COUNTRY 5.1 Afghanistan 5.2 Albania 5.3 Algeria 5.4 American Samoa 5.5 Andorra 5.6 Angola 5.7 Antigua and Barbuda 5.8 Argentina 5.9 Armenia 5.10 Aruba 5.11 Australia 5.12 Austria 5.13 Azerbaijan 5.14 Bahrain 5.15 Bangladesh 5.16 Barbados 5.17 Belarus 5.18 Belgium 5.19 Belize 5.20 Benin 5.21 Bermuda 5.22 Bhutan 5.23 Bolivia 5.24 Bosnia and Herzegovina 5.25 Botswana 5.26 Brazil 5.27 Brunei 5.28 Bulgaria 5.29 Burkina Faso 5.30 Burma 5.31 Burundi 5.32 Cambodia 5.33 Cameroon 5.34 Canada 5.35 Cape Verde 5.36 Central African Republic 5.37 Chad 5.38 Chile 5.39 China 5.40 Christmas Island 5.41 Colombia 5.42 Comoros 5.43 Congo (formerly Zaire) 5.44 Cook Islands 5.45 Costa Rica 5.46 Cote d'Ivoire 5.47 Croatia 5.48 Cuba 5.49 Cyprus 5.50 Czech Republic 5.51 Denmark 5.52 Djibouti 5.53 Dominica 5.54 Dominican Republic 5.55 Ecuador 5.56 Egypt 5.57 El Salvador 5.58 Equatorial Guinea 5.59 Estonia 5.60 Ethiopia 5.61 Fiji 5.62 Finland 5.63 France 5.64 French Guiana 5.65 French Polynesia 5.66 Gabon 5.67 Georgia 5.68 Germany 5.69 Ghana 5.70 Greece 5.71 Greenland 5.72 Grenada 5.73 Guadeloupe 5.74 Guam 5.75 Guatemala 5.76 Guinea 5.77 Guinea-Bissau 5.78 Guyana 5.79 Haiti 5.80 Honduras 5.81 Hong Kong 5.82 Hungary 5.83 Iceland 5.84 India 5.85 Indonesia 5.86 Iran 5.87 Iraq 5.88 Ireland 5.89 Israel 5.90 Italy 5.91 Jamaica 5.92 Japan 5.93 Jordan 5.94 Kazakhstan 5.95 Kenya 5.96 Kiribati 5.97 Kuwait 5.98 Kyrgyzstan 5.99 Laos 5.100 Latvia 5.101 Lebanon 5.102 Lesotho 5.103 Liberia 5.104 Libya 5.105 Liechtenstein 5.106 Lithuania 5.107 Luxembourg 5.108 Macau 5.109 Madagascar 5.110 Malawi 5.111 Malaysia 5.112 Maldives 5.113 Mali 5.114 Malta 5.115 Marshall Islands 5.116 Martinique 5.117 Mauritania 5.118 Mauritius 5.119 Mexico 5.120 Micronesia Federation 5.121 Moldova 5.122 Monaco 5.123 Mongolia 5.124 Morocco 5.125 Mozambique 5.126 Namibia 5.127 Nauru 5.128 Nepal 5.129 New Caledonia 5.130 New Zealand 5.131 Nicaragua 5.132 Niger 5.133 Nigeria 5.134 Niue 5.135 Norfolk Island 5.136 North Korea 5.137 Norway 5.138 Oman 5.139 Pakistan 5.140 Palau 5.141 Palestine 5.142 Panama 5.143 Papua New Guinea 5.144 Paraguay 5.145 Peru 5.146 Philippines 5.147 Poland 5.148 Portugal 5.149 Puerto Rico 5.150 Qatar 5.151 Republic of Congo 5.152 Reunion 5.153 Romania 5.154 Russia 5.155 Rwanda 5.156 San Marino 5.157 Sao Tome E Principe 5.158 Saudi Arabia 5.159 Senegal 5.160 Seychelles 5.161 Sierra Leone 5.162 Singapore 5.163 Slovakia 5.164 Slovenia 5.165 Solomon Islands 5.166 Somalia 5.167 South Africa 5.168 South Korea 5.169 Spain 5.170 Sri Lanka 5.171 St. Kitts and Nevis 5.172 St. Lucia 5.173 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 5.174 Sudan 5.175 Suriname 5.176 Swaziland 5.177 Sweden 5.178 Switzerland 5.179 Syrian Arab Republic 5.180 Taiwan 5.181 Tajikistan 5.182 Tanzania 5.183 Thailand 5.184 The Bahamas 5.185 The British Virgin Islands 5.186 The Cayman Islands 5.187 The Falkland Islands 5.188 The Gambia 5.189 The Netherlands 5.190 The Netherlands Antilles 5.191 The Northern Mariana Island 5.192 The U.S. Virgin Islands 5.193 The United Arab Emirates 5.194 The United Kingdom 5.195 The United States 5.196 Togo 5.197 Tokelau 5.198 Tonga 5.199 Trinidad and Tobago 5.200 Tunisia 5.201 Turkey 5.202 Turkmenistan 5.203 Tuvalu 5.204 Uganda 5.205 Ukraine 5.206 Uruguay 5.207 Uzbekistan 5.208 Vanuatu 5.209 Venezuela 5.210 Vietnam 5.211 Wallis and Futuna 5.212 Western Sahara 5.213 Western Samoa 5.214 Yemen 5.215 Zambia 5.216 Zimbabwe 6 DISCLAIMERS, WARRANTEES, AND USER AGREEMENT PROVISIONS 6.1 Disclaimers & Safe Harbor 6.2 ICON Group International, Inc. 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