Market Potential Estimation Methodology
Overview
This study covers the world outlook for aerospace products and parts manufacturing across more than 2000 cities. For the year reported, estimates are given for the latent demand, or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.), for the city in question (in millions of U.S. dollars), the percent share the city is of the region and of the globe. These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a city vis-à-vis others. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each country and across countries, latent demand estimates are created. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved.
This study does not report actual sales data (which are simply unavailable, in a comparable or consistent manner in virtually all of the cities of the world). This study gives, however, my estimates
for the worldwide latent demand, or the P.I.E. for aerospace products and parts manufacturing. It also shows how the P.I.E. is divided across the world’s cities. In order to make these estimates, a multi-stage methodology was employed that is often taught in courses on international strategic planning at graduate schools of business.
What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.?
The concept of latent demand is rather subtle. The term latent typically refers to something that is dormant, not observable, or not yet realized. Demand is the notion of an economic quantity that a target population or market requires under different assumptions of price, quality, and distribution, among other factors. Latent demand, therefore, is commonly defined by economists as the industry earnings of a market when that market becomes accessible and attractive to serve by competing firms. It is a measure, therefore, of potential industry earnings (P.I.E.) or total revenues (not profit) if a market is served in an efficient manner. It is typically expressed as the total revenues potentially extracted by firms. The “market” is defined at a given level in the value chain. There can be latent demand at the retail level, at the wholesale level, the manufacturing level, and the raw materials level (the P.I.E. of higher levels of the value chain being always smaller than the P.I.E. of levels at lower levels of the same value chain, assuming all levels maintain minimum profitability).
The latent demand for aerospace products and parts manufacturing is not actual or historic sales. Nor is latent demand future sales. In fact, latent demand can be lower either lower or higher than actual sales if a market is inefficient (i.e., not representative of relatively competitive levels). Inefficiencies arise from a number of factors, including the lack of international openness, cultural barriers to consumption, regulations, and cartel-like behavior on the part of firms. In general, however, latent demand is typically larger than actual sales in a city market.
Another reason why sales do not equate to latent demand is exchange rates. In this report, all figures assume the long-run efficiency of currency markets. Figures, therefore, equate values based on purchasing power parities across countries. Short-run distortions in the value of the dollar, therefore, do not figure into the estimates. Purchasing power parity estimates of country income were collected from official sources, and extrapolated using standard econometric models. The report uses the dollar as the currency of comparison, but not as a measure of transaction volume. The units used in this report are: US $ mln.
For reasons discussed later, this report does not consider the notion of “unit quantities”, only total latent revenues (i.e., a calculation of price times quantity is never made, though one is implied). The units used in this report are U.S. dollars not adjusted for inflation (i.e., the figures incorporate inflationary trends) and not adjusted for future dynamics in exchange rates (i.e., the figures reflect average exchange rates over recent history). If inflation rates or exchange rates vary in a substantial way compared to recent experience, actually sales can also exceed latent demand (when expressed in U.S. dollars, not adjusted for inflation). On the other hand, latent demand can be typically higher than actual sales as there are often distribution inefficiencies that reduce actual sales below the level of latent demand.
As mentioned earlier, this study is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved. If fact, all the current products or services on the market can cease to exist in their present form (i.e., at a brand-, R&D specification, or corporate-image level) and all the players can be replaced by other firms (i.e., via exits, entries, mergers, bankruptcies, etc.), and there will still be an international latent demand for aerospace products and parts manufacturing at the aggregate level. Product and service offering details, and the actual identity of the players involved, while important for certain issues, are relatively unimportant for estimates of latent demand.
The Methodology
In order to estimate the latent demand for aerospace products and parts manufacturing on a city-by-city basis, I used a multi-stage approach. Before applying the approach, one needs a basic theory from which such estimates are created. In this case, I heavily rely on the use of certain basic economic assumptions. In particular, there is an assumption governing the shape and type of aggregate latent demand functions. Latent demand functions relate the income of a country, city, state, household, or individual to realized consumption. Latent demand (often realized as consumption when an industry is efficient), at any level of the value chain, takes place if an equilibrium in realized. For firms to serve a market, they must perceive a latent demand and be able to serve that demand at a minimal return. The single most important variable determining consumption, assuming latent demand exists, is income (or other financial resources at higher levels of the value chain). Other factors that can pivot or shape demand curves include external or exogenous shocks (i.e., business cycles), and or changes in utility for the product in question.
Ignoring, for the moment, exogenous shocks and variations in utility across countries, the aggregate relation between income and consumption has been a central theme in economics. The figure below concisely summarizes one aspect of problem. In the 1930s, John Meynard Keynes conjectured that as incomes rise, the average propensity to consume would fall. The average propensity to consume is the level of consumption divided by the level of income, or the slope of the line from the origin to the consumption function. He estimated this relationship empirically and found it to be true in the short-run (mostly based on cross-sectional data). The higher the income, the lower the average propensity to consume. This type of consumption function is labeled "A" in the figure below (note the rather flat slope of the curve). In the 1940s, another macroeconomist, Simon Kuznets, estimated long-run consumption functions which indicated that the marginal propensity to consume was rather constant (using time series data across countries). This type of consumption function is show as "B" in the figure below (note the higher slope and zero-zero intercept). The average propensity to consume is constant.
Is it declining or is it constant? A number of other economists, notably Franco Modigliani and Milton Friedman, in the 1950s (and Irving Fisher earlier), explained why the two functions were different using various assumptions on intertemporal budget constraints, savings, and wealth. The shorter the time horizon, the more consumption can depend on wealth (earned in previous years) and business cycles. In the long-run, however, the propensity to consume is more constant. Similarly, in the long run, households, industries or countries with no income eventually have no consumption (wealth is depleted). While the debate surrounding beliefs about how income and consumption are related and interesting, in this study a very particular school of thought is adopted. In particular, we are considering the latent demand for aerospace products and parts manufacturing across some 230 countries. The smallest have fewer than 10,000 inhabitants. I assume that all of these counties fall along a "long-run" aggregate consumption function. This long-run function applies despite some of these countries having wealth, current income dominates the latent demand for aerospace products and parts manufacturing. So, latent demand in the long-run has a zero intercept. However, I allow firms to have different propensities to consume (including being on consumption functions with differing slopes, which can account for differences in industrial organization, and end-user preferences).
Given this overriding philosophy, I will now describe the methodology used to create the latent demand estimates for aerospace products and parts manufacturing. Since ICON Group has asked me to apply this methodology to a large number of categories, the rather academic discussion below is general and can be applied to a wide variety of categories, not just aerospace products and parts manufacturing.
Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection
Any study of latent demand across countries requires that some standard be established to define “efficiently served”. Having implemented various alternatives and matched these with market outcomes, I have found that the optimal approach is to assume that certain key countries or cities are more likely to be at or near efficiency than others. These are given greater weight than others in the estimation of latent demand compared to others for which no known data are available. Of the many alternatives, I have found the assumption that the world’s highest aggregate income and highest income-per-capita markets reflect the best standards for “efficiency”. High aggregate income alone is not sufficient (i.e., China has high aggregate income, but low income per capita and can not assumed to be efficient). Aggregate income can be operationalized in a number of ways, including gross domestic product (for industrial categories), or total disposable income (for household categories; population times average income per capita, or number of households times average household income per capita). Brunei, Nauru, Kuwait, and Lichtenstein are examples of countries with high income per capita, but not assumed to be efficient, given low aggregate level of income (or gross domestic product); these countries have, however, high incomes per capita but may not benefit from the efficiencies derived from economies of scale associated with large economies. Only countries with high income per capita and large aggregate income are assumed efficient. This greatly restricts the pool of countries to those in the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), like the United States, or the United Kingdom (which were earlier than other large OECD economies to liberalize their markets).
The selection of countries is further reduced by the fact that not all countries in the OECD report industry revenues at the category level. Countries that typically have ample data at the aggregate level that meet the efficiency criteria include the United States, the United Kingdom and in some cases France and Germany.
Latent demand is therefore estimated using data collected for relatively efficient markets from independent data sources (e.g. Euromonitor, Mintel, Thomson Financial Services, the U.S. Industrial Outlook, the World Resources Institute, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, various agencies from the United Nations, industry trade associations, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank). Depending on original data sources used, the definition of “aerospace products and parts manufacturing” is established. In the case of this report, the data were reported at the aggregate level, with no further breakdown or definition. In other words, any potential product or service that might be incorporated within aerospace products and parts manufacturing falls under this category. Public sources rarely report data at the disaggregated level in order to protect private information from individual firms that might dominate a specific product-market. These sources will therefore aggregate across components of a category and report only the aggregate to the public. While private data are certainly available, this report only relies on public data at the aggregate level without reliance on the summation of various category components. In other words, this report does not aggregate a number of components to arrive at the “whole”. Rather, it starts with the “whole”, and estimates the whole for all cities and the world at large (without needing to know the specific parts that went into the whole in the first place).
Given this caveat, this study covers “aerospace products and parts manufacturing” as defined by the North American Industrial Classification system or NAICS (pronounced “nakes”). aerospace products and parts manufacturing The NAICS code for aerospace products and parts manufacturing is 3364. It is for this definition of aerospace products and parts manufacturing that the aggregate latent demand estimates are derived. “Aerospace products and parts manufacturing” is specifically defined as follows:
3364
Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing
33641
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in one or more of the following: (1) manufacturing complete aircraft, missiles, or space vehicles; (2) manufacturing aerospace engines, propulsion units, auxiliary equipment or parts; (3) developing and making prototypes of aerospace products; (4) aircraft conversion (i.e., major modifications to systems); and (5) complete aircraft or propulsion systems overhaul and rebuilding (i.e., periodic restoration of aircraft to original design specifications).
336411
This U.S. industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in one or more of the following: (1) manufacturing or assembling complete aircraft; (2) developing and making aircraft prototypes; (3) aircraft conversion (i.e., major modifications to systems); and (4) complete aircraft overhaul and rebuilding (i.e., periodic restoration of aircraft to original design specifications).
3364111
MILITARY AIRCRAFT (INCLUDING ALL AIRCRAFT FOR U.S. MILITARY AND ANY OTHER AIRCRAFT BUILT TO MILITARY SPECIFICATIONS)
33641111
Military aircraft (including all aircraft for U.S. military and any other aircraft built to military specifications)
3364111100
Military aircraft (including all aircraft for U.S. military and any other aircraft built to military specifications)
3364112
MILITARY AIRCRAFT (INCLUDING ALL AIRCRAFT FOR U.S. MILITARY AND ANY OTHER AIRCRAFT BUILT TO MILITARY SPECIFICATIONS)
33641121
Military aircraft (including all aircraft for U.S. military and any other aircraft built to military specifications)
3364112100
Military aircraft (including all aircraft for U.S. military and any other aircraft built to military specifications)
3364113
Complete civilian aircraft
33641130
Civilian aircraft
3364113000
Civilian aircraft
3364113004
Civil aircraft unladen weight not exceeding 2,000 kg (4,409 lb)
3364113007
Civil aircraft with unladen weight exceeding 2,000 kg (4,409 lb) but not exceeding 15,000 kg (33,069 lb)
3364113011
Civil aircraft with unladen weight exceeding 15,000 kg (33,069 lb)
3364113014
Helicopters with unladen weight not exceeding 2,000 kg (4,409 lb)
3364113017
Helicopters with unladen weight exceeding 2,000 kg (4,409 lb)
3364113021
Other civil aircraft (nonpowered) and kits
33641131
Civilian aircraft
3364113100
Civilian aircraft
3364113104
Civil aircraft (fixed wing, powered), unladen weight not exceeding 2,000 kg (4,409 lb)
3364113107
Civil aircraft (fixed wing, powered), unladen weight exceeding 2,000 kg (4,409 lb) but not exceeding 15,000 kg (33,069 lb)
3364113111
Civil aircraft (fixed wing, powered), unladen weight exceeding 15,000 kg (33,069 lb)
3364113114
Helicopters (rotary wing, powered), unladen weight not exceeding 2,000 kg (4,409 lb)
3364113117
Helicopters (rotary wing, powered), unladen weight exceeding 2,000 kg (4,409 lb)
3364113121
Other civil aircraft (nonpowered) and kits
3364115
Modifications, conversions, and overhaul of previously accepted aircraft
33641151
Modification, conversion, and overhaul of previously accepted aircraft
3364115101
Modification, conversion, and overhaul of military aircraft and all other aircraft built to military specifications
3364115104
Modification, conversion, and overhaul of previously accepted aircraft for civilian customers
3364117
Other aeronautical services on complete aircraft, nec
33641171
All other aeronautical services on complete aircraft
3364117101
Research and development on complete aircraft for military customers
3364117104
All other aeronautical services on complete aircraft for military customers
3364117107
Research and development on complete aircraft for civilian customers
3364117111
All other aeronautical services on complete aircraft for civilian customers
336411M
Miscellaneous receipts
336411P
Primary products
336411S
Secondary products
336411SM
Secondary products and miscellaneous receipts
336412
This U.S. industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in one or more of the following: (1) manufacturing aircraft engines and engine parts; (2) developing and making prototypes of aircraft engines and engine parts; (3) aircraft propulsion system conversion (i.e., major modifications to systems); and (4) aircraft propulsion systems overhaul and rebuilding (i.e., periodic restoration of aircraft propulsion system to original design specifications).
3364121
Aircraft engines for military aircraft
33641211
Military aircraft engines (including other aircraft engines built to military specifications)
3364121100
Military aircraft engines (including other aircraft engines built to military specifications)
3364123
Aircraft engines for civilian aircraft
33641230
Civilian aircraft engines
3364123000
Civilian aircraft engines
3364123001
Spark~ignition reciprocating or rotary internal combustion civil aircraft engines
3364123004
Turbojet and turbofan civil aircraft engines of a thrust not exceeding 25 kN (5,620 lb)
3364123007
Turbojet and turbofan civil aircraft engines of a thrust exceeding 25 kN (5,620 lb)
3364123011
Turboshaft civil aircraft engines of a power not exceeding 1,100 kW (820 hp)
3364123014
Turboshaft civil aircraft engines of a power exceeding 1,100 kW (820 hp)
3364123017
Other civil aircraft engines, including auxiliary power units, excluding missile and space engines
33641231
Civilian aircraft engines
3364123100
Civilian aircraft engines
3364123101
Complete civil aircraft engines, spark_ignition reciprocating or rotary internal combustion (piston engines)
3364123104
Complete civil aircraft engines, turbojet and turbofan, thrust not exceeding 25 kN (5,620 lb)
3364123107
Complete civil aircraft engines, turbojet and turbofan, thrust exceeding 25 kN (5,620 lb)
3364123111
Complete civil aircraft engines, turboshaft (turbo propellor), power not exceeding 1,100 kW (820 hp)
3364123114
Complete civil aircraft engines, turboshaft (turbo propellor), power exceeding 1,100 kW (820 hp)
3364123117
Complete civil aircraft engines, other (including auxiliary power units), excluding missile and space engines
3364125
Aeronautical services on aircraft engines
33641251
Aeronautical services on aircraft engines
3364125101
Research and development work on military aircraft engines (including other aircraft engines built to military specifications)
3364125104
Research and development work on civilian aircraft engines
3364125107
All other aeronautical services on military aircraft engines (including other aircraft engines built to military specifications)
3364125111
All other aeronautical services on civilian aircraft engines
3364127
Aircraft engine parts and accessories
33641271
Parts and accessories for spark ignition reciprocating and rotary internal combustion military aircraft engines
3364127101
Parts and accessories for spark ignition reciprocating and rotary internal combustion military aircraft engines
33641272
Parts and accessories for other military aircraft engines
3364127204
Parts and accessories for other military aircraft engines
33641273
Parts and accessories for spark ignition reciprocating and rotary internal combustion civilian aircraft engines
3364127307
Parts and accessories for spark ignition reciprocating and rotary internal combustion civilian aircraft engines
33641274
Parts and accessories for other civilian aircraft engines
3364127411
Parts and accessories for other civilian aircraft engines
336412M
Miscellaneous receipts
336412P
Primary products
336412S
Secondary products
336412SM
Secondary products and miscellaneous receipts
336413
This U.S. industry comprises establishment primarily engaged in (1) manufacturing aircraft parts or auxiliary equipment (except engines and aircraft fluid power subassemblies) and/or (2) developing and making prototypes of aircraft parts and auxiliary equipment. Auxiliary equipment includes such items as crop dusting apparatus, armament racks, inflight refueling equipment, and external fuel tanks.
3364131
AIRCRAFT PROPELLERS AND HELICOPTER ROTORS
33641311
Aircraft propellers and helicopter rotors
3364131101
Complete aircraft propellers, excluding helicopter rotors
3364131104
Aircraft propeller blades
3364131107
Aircraft propeller parts, except propeller blades
3364131111
Helicopter rotors and parts
3364132
Aircraft parts, excluding propellers, rotors, and fluid power subassemblies
3364133
Receipts from research and development on aircraft parts
33641331
Research and development on aircraft parts (except engines)
3364133101
Research and development on military aircraft parts (except engines), including other aircraft parts built to military specifications
3364133104
Research and development on civilian aircraft parts (except engines)
3364134
Aircraft hydraulic and pneumatic subassemblies
3364135
AIRCRAFT PARTS AND AUXILIARY EQUIPMENT, EXCLUDING HYDRAULIC AND PNEUMATIC SUBASSEMBLIES AND ENGINES
33641351
Aircraft mechanical power transmission equipment for civilian and U.S. military aircraft
3364135101
Aircraft mechanical power transmission equipment for U.S. military aircraft and all other aircraft built to military specifications
3364135104
Aircraft mechanical power transmission equipment for civilian aircraft
33641352
Aircraft landing gear
3364135207
Aircraft landing gear for U.S. military aircraft and all other aircraft built to military specifications
3364135211
Aircraft landing gear for civilian aircraft
33641353
Other aircraft subassemblies and parts for U.S. military aircraft and all other aircraft built to military specifications
3364135313
Other aircraft subassemblies and parts for U.S. military aircraft and all other aircraft built to military specifications
33641354
Other aircraft subassemblies and parts for civilian aircraft
3364135416
Other aircraft subassemblies and parts for civilian aircraft
3364136
Aircraft propellers and helicopter rotors
33641361
Aircraft mechanical power transmission equipment for civilian and military aircraft
3364136101
Aircraft mechanical power transmission equipment for military aircraft (including other aircraft built to military specifications)
3364136104
Aircraft mechanical power transmission equipment for civilian aircraft
33641362
Aircraft landing gear for civilian and military aircraft
3364136207
Aircraft landing gear for military aircraft (including other aircraft built to military specifications)
3364136211
Aircraft landing gear for civilian aircraft
33641363
Other aircraft subassemblies and parts for military aircraft (including other aircraft built to military specifications)
3364136313
Other aircraft subassemblies and parts for military aircraft (including other aircraft built to military specifications)
33641364
Other aircraft subassemblies and parts for civilian aircraft
3364136416
Other aircraft subassemblies and parts for civilian aircraft
336413M
Miscellaneous receipts
336413P
Primary products
336413S
Secondary products
336413SM
Secondary products and miscellaneous receipts
336414
This U.S. industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in (1) manufacturing complete guided missiles and space vehicles and/or (2) developing and making prototypes of guided missile or space vehicles.
3364141
COMPLETE GUIDED MISSILES
33641411
Complete guided missiles
3364141100
Complete guided missiles
3364143
RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT ON COMPLETE GUIDED MISSILES
33641431
Research and development on complete guided missiles
3364143100
Research and development on complete guided missiles
3364145
OTHER SERVICES ON COMPLETE GUIDED MISSILES
33641451
Other services on complete guided missiles
3364145100
Other services on complete guided missiles
3364147
COMPLETE SPACE VEHICLES (EXCLUDING PROPULSION SYSTEMS)
33641471
Complete space vehicles (excluding propulsion systems) for U.S. Government military customers
3364147101
Complete space vehicles (excluding propulsion systems) for U.S. Government military customers
33641472
Complete space vehicles (excluding propulsion systems) for other customers
3364147204
Complete space vehicles (excluding propulsion systems) for other customers
3364149
RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT ON COMPLETE SPACE VEHICLES
33641491
Research and development on complete space vehicles
3364149101
Research and development on complete space vehicles for U.S. Government military customers
3364149104
Research and development on complete space vehicles for other customers
336414A
ALL OTHER SERVICES ON COMPLETE SPACE VEHICLES
336414A1
All other services on complete space vehicles
336414A101
All other services on complete space vehicles for U.S. Government military customers
336414A104
All other services on complete space vehicles for other customers
336415
This U.S. industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in (1) manufacturing guided missile and/or space vehicle propulsion units and propulsion unit parts and/or (2) developing and making prototypes of guided missile and space vehicle propulsion units and propulsion unit parts.
3364151
COMPLETE MISSILES, SPACE VEHICLE ENGINES, AND PROPULSION UNITS
33641511
Complete missiles, space vehicle engines, and propulsion units for U.S. Government military customers
3364151101
Complete missiles, space vehicle engines, and propulsion units for U.S. Government military customers
33641512
Complete missiles, space vehicle engines, and propulsion units for U.S. Government nonmilitary customers
3364151204
Complete missiles, space vehicle engines, and propulsion units for U.S. Government nonmilitary customers
33641513
Complete missiles, space vehicle engines, and propulsion units for other customers
3364151307
Complete missiles, space vehicle engines, and propulsion units for other customers
3364153
RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT ON COMPLETE MISSILES, SPACE VEHICLE ENGINES, AND PROPULSION UNITS
33641531
Research and development on complete missiles, space vehicle engines, and propulsion units
3364153101
Research and development on complete missiles, space vehicle engines, and propulsion units for U.S. Government military customers
3364153104
Research and development on complete missiles, space vehicle engines, and propulsion units for U.S. Government nonmilitary customers
3364153107
Research and development on complete missiles, space vehicle engines, and propulsion units for other customers
3364155
OTHER SERVICES ON COMPLETE MISSILES, SPACE VEHICLE ENGINES, AND PROPULSION UNITS
33641551
Other services on complete missiles, space vehicle engines, and propulsion units
3364155101
Other services on complete missiles, space vehicle engines, and propulsion units for U.S. Government military customers
3364155104
Other services on complete missiles, space vehicle engines, and propulsion units for U.S. Government nonmilitary customers
3364155107
Other services on complete missiles, space vehicle engines, and propulsion units for other customers
3364157
MISSILE AND SPACE VEHICLE ENGINE AND PROPULSION PARTS AND ACCESSORIES
33641571
Missile and space vehicle engine and propulsion parts and accessories
3364157101
Missile and space vehicle engine and propulsion parts and accessories for U.S. Government military customers
3364157104
Missile and space vehicle engine and propulsion parts and accessories for U.S. Government nonmilitary customers
3364157107
Missile and space vehicle engine and propulsion parts and accessories for other customers
336419
This U.S. Industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in (1) manufacturing guided missile and space vehicle parts and auxiliary equipment (except guided missile and space vehicle propulsion units and propulsion unit parts) and/or (2) developing and making prototypes of guided missile and space vehicle parts and auxiliary equipment.
3364191
MISSILE AND SPACE VEHICLE COMPONENTS, PARTS, AND SUBASSEMBLIES
33641911
Missile and space vehicle airframes and space capsules for U.S. Government military customers
3364191101
Missile and space vehicle airframes for U.S. Government military customers
3364191104
Missile and space capsules for U.S. Government military customers
33641912
All other missile and space vehicle components, parts, and subassemblies for U.S. Government military customers
3364191207
All other missile and space vehicle components, parts, and subassemblies for U.S. Government military customers
33641913
Missile and space vehicle components, parts, and subassemblies for U.S. Government nonmilitary customers
3364191311
Missile and space vehicle components, parts, and subassemblies for U.S. Government nonmilitary customers
33641914
Missile and space vehicle components, parts, and subassemblies for other customers
3364191413
Missile and space vehicle components, parts, and subassemblies for other customers
3364193
RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT ON MISSILE AND SPACE VEHICLE PARTS AND COMPONENTS
33641931
Research and development on missile and space vehicle parts and components
3364193101
Research and development on missile and space vehicle airframes and space capsules for U.S. Government military customers
3364193104
Other research and development on missile and space vehicle parts and components for U.S. Government military customers
3364193107
Research and development on missile and space vehicle parts and components for U.S. Government nonmilitary customers
3364193111
Research and development on missile and space vehicle parts and components for other customers
Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing
Based on the aggregate view of aerospace products and parts manufacturing as defined above, data were then collected for as many similar countries and cities as possible for that same definition, at the same level of the value chain. This generates a convenience sample from which comparable figures are available. If the series in question do not reflect the same accounting period, then adjustments are made. In order to eliminate short-term effects of business cycles, the series are smoothed using an 2 year moving average weighting scheme (longer weighting sch
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