|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
The 2011-2016 Outlook for Commercial Gravure Printing in India
ICON Group International, Feb 2011, Pages: 322
WHAT IS LATENT DEMAND AND THE P.I.E.?
The concept of latent demand is rather subtle. The term latent typically refers to something that is dormant, not observable, or not yet realized. Demand is the notion of an economic quantity that a target population or market requires under different assumptions of price, quality, and distribution, among other factors. Latent demand, therefore, is commonly defined by economists as the industry earnings of a market when that market becomes accessible and attractive to serve by competing firms. It is a measure, therefore, of potential industry earnings (P.I.E.) or total revenues (not profit) if India is served in an efficient manner. It is typically expressed as the total revenues potentially extracted by firms. The “market” is defined at a given level in the value chain. There can be latent demand at the retail level, at the wholesale level, the manufacturing level, and the raw materials level (the P.I.E. of higher levels of the value chain being always smaller than the P.I.E. of levels at lower levels of the same value chain, assuming all levels maintain minimum profitability).
The latent demand for commercial gravure printing in India is not actual or historic sales. Nor is latent demand future sales. In fact, latent demand can be either lower or higher than actual sales if a market is inefficient (i.e., not representative of relatively competitive levels). Inefficiencies arise from a number of factors, including the lack of international openness, cultural barriers to consumption, regulations, and cartel-like behavior on the part of firms. In general, however, latent demand is typically larger than actual sales in a market.
For reasons discussed later, this report does not consider the notion of “unit quantities”, only total latent revenues (i.e., a calculation of price times quantity is never made, though one is implied). The units used in this report are U.S. dollars not adjusted for inflation (i.e., the figures incorporate inflationary trends). If inflation rates vary in a substantial way compared to recent experience, actually sales can also exceed latent demand (not adjusted for inflation). On the other hand, latent demand can be typically higher than actual sales as there are often distribution inefficiencies that reduce actual sales below the level of latent demand.
As mentioned in the introduction, this study is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved. In fact, all the current products or services on the market can cease to exist in their present form (i.e., at a brand-, R&D specification, or corporate-image level) and all the players can be replaced by other firms (i.e., via exits, entries, mergers, bankruptcies, etc.), and there will still be latent demand for commercial gravure printing at the aggregate level. Product and service offerings, and the actual identity of the players involved, while important for certain issues, are relatively unimportant for estimates of latent demand.
THE METHODOLOGY
In order to estimate the latent demand for commercial gravure printing across the states or union territories and cites of India, I used a multi-stage approach. Before applying the approach, one needs a basic theory from which such estimates are created. In this case, I heavily rely on the use of certain basic economic assumptions. In particular, there is an assumption governing the shape and type of aggregate latent demand functions. Latent demand functions relate the income of a state or union territory, city, household, or individual to realized consumption. Latent demand (often realized as consumption when an industry is efficient), at any level of the value chain, takes place if an equilibrium is realized. For firms to serve a market, they must perceive a latent demand and be able to serve that demand at a minimal return. The single most important variable determining consumption, assuming latent demand exists, is income (or other financial resources at higher levels of the value chain). Other factors that can pivot or shape demand curves include external or exogenous shocks (i.e., business cycles), and or changes in utility for the product in question.
Ignoring, for the moment, exogenous shocks and variations in utility across geographies, the aggregate relation between income and consumption has been a central theme in economics. The figure below concisely summarizes one aspect of problem. In the 1930s, John Meynard Keynes conjectured that as incomes rise, the average propensity to consume would fall. The average propensity to consume is the level of consumption divided by the level of income, or the slope of the line from the origin to the consumption function. He estimated this relationship empirically and found it to be true in the short-run (mostly based on cross-sectional data). The higher the income, the lower the average propensity to consume. This type of consumption function is labeled 'A' in the figure below (note the rather flat slope of the curve). In the 1940s, another macroeconomist, Simon Kuznets, estimated long-run consumption functions which indicated that the marginal propensity to consume was rather constant (using time series data). This type of consumption function is shown as 'B' in the figure below (note the higher slope and zero-zero intercept). The average propensity to consume is constant.
Is it declining or is it constant? A number of other economists, notably Franco Modigliani and Milton Friedman, in the 1950s (and Irving Fisher earlier), explained why the two functions were different using various assumptions on intertemporal budget constraints, savings, and wealth. The shorter the time horizon, the more consumption can depend on wealth (earned in previous years) and business cycles. In the long-run, however, the propensity to consume is more constant. Similarly, in the long run, households with no income eventually have no consumption (wealth is depleted). While the debate surrounding beliefs about how income and consumption are related is interesting, in this study a very particular school of thought is adopted. In particular, we are considering the latent demand for commercial gravure printing across the states or union territories and cities of India. The smallest cities have few inhabitants. I assume that all of these cities fall along a 'long-run' aggregate consumption function. This long-run function applies despite some of these states or union territories having wealth; current income dominates the latent demand for commercial gravure printing. So, latent demand in the long-run has a zero intercept. However, I allow different propensities to consume (including being on consumption functions with differing slopes, which can account for differences in industrial organization, and end-user preferences).
Given this overriding philosophy, I will now describe the methodology used to create the latent demand estimates for commercial gravure printing in India. Since ICON Group has asked me to apply this methodology to a large number of categories, the rather academic discussion below is general and can be applied to a wide variety of categories and geographic locations, not just commercial gravure printing in India.
Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection
Any study of latent demand requires that some standard be established to define “efficiently served”. Having implemented various alternatives and matched these with market outcomes, I have found that the optimal approach is to assume that certain key indicators are more likely to reflect efficiency than others. These indicators are given greater weight than others in the estimation of latent demand compared to others for which no known data are available. Of the many alternatives, I have found the assumption that the highest aggregate income and highest income-per-capita markets reflect the best standards for “efficiency”. High aggregate income alone is not sufficient (i.e. some cities have high aggregate income, but low income per capita and can not assumed to be efficient). Aggregate income can be operationalized in a number of ways, including gross domestic product (for industrial categories), or total disposable income (for household categories; population times average income per capita, or number of households times average household income).
Latent demand is therefore estimated using data collected for relatively efficient markets from independent data sources (e.g. Official Chinese Agencies, the World Resources Institute, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, various agencies from the United Nations, industry trade associations, the International Monetary Fund, Euromonitor, Mintel, Thomson Financial Services, the U.S. Industrial Outlook, and the World Bank). Depending on original data sources used, the definition of “commercial gravure printing” is established. In the case of this report, the data were reported at the aggregate level, with no further breakdown or definition. In other words, any potential product or service that might be incorporated within commercial gravure printing falls under this category. Public sources rarely report data at the disaggregated level in order to protect private information from individual firms that might dominate a specific product-market. These sources will therefore aggregate across components of a category and report only the aggregate to the public. While private data are certainly available, this report only relies on public data at the aggregate level without reliance on the summation of various category components. In other words, this report does not aggregate a number of components to arrive at the “whole”. Rather, it starts with the “whole”, and estimates the whole for all states or union territories and cities in India (without needing to know the specific parts that went into the whole in the first place).
Given this caveat, this study covers “commercial gravure printing” as defined by the NAICS coding system (pronounced “nakes”). commercial gravure printing The NAICS code for commercial gravure printing is 323111. It is for this definition of commercial gravure printing that the aggregate latent demand estimates are derived for the states or union territories and cities of India. “Commercial gravure printing” is specifically defined as follows:
323111
This U.S. industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in gravure printing without publishing (except books, grey goods, and manifold business forms). This industry includes establishments engaged in gravure printing on purchased stock materials, such as stationery, letterhead, invitations, labels, and similar items, on a job order basis.
3231111
Magazine and periodical printing, gravure
32311111
Magazine and periodical printing (gravure), including magazine and comic supplements for Sunday newspapers (excluding printing of newspaper advertising inserts)
3231111100
Magazine and periodical printing (gravure), including magazine and comic supplements for Sunday newspapers (excluding printing of newspaper advertising inserts)
3231111111
Magazine and periodical printing (gravure), excluding magazine and comic supplements for Sunday newspapers
3231111116
Magazine and comic supplement printing (gravure) for Sunday newspapers
3231112
Label and wrapper printing, gravure
3231113
Catalog and directory printing, gravure
32311131
Label printing (gravure)
3231113111
Label printing (gravure), custom and stock labels, including bordered, made of paper, flat (except pressure_sensitive)
3231113116
Label printing (gravure), custom and stock labels, including bordered, made of paper, rolls (except pressure_sensitive)
3231113121
Label printing (gravure), custom and stock labels, including bordered, made of paper, pressure_sensitive (self_adhesive)
3231113126
Label printing (gravure), custom and stock labels, including bordered, made of materials other than paper (including cloth)
32311132
Printed rolls and sheets for packaging purposes (printing only) (gravure)
3231113231
Printed rolls and sheets for packaging purposes (printing only) (gravure), made of paper (single_web)
3231113236
Printed rolls and sheets for packaging purposes (printing only) (gravure), made of materials other than paper, including multiweb structures
3231115
Advertising printing, gravure
32311151
Catalog and directory printing (gravure)
3231115100
Catalog and directory printing (gravure)
3231116
Other commercial printing, gravure
3231117
ADVERTISING PRINTING (GRAVURE)
32311171
Advertising printing (gravure)
3231117111
Direct mail advertising printing (gravure), including circulars, letters, pamphlets, cards, and printed envelopes
3231117116
Preprinted newspaper advertising insert printing (gravure) (advertising supplements not regularly issued)
3231117121
Other advertising printing (gravure), including advertising display materials, shopping news, brochures, pamphlets, book jackets, magazine inserts, etc.
3231119
OTHER COMMERCIAL AND GENERAL JOB PRINTING (GRAVURE)
32311191
Other commercial and general job printing (gravure)
3231119100
All other commercial and general job printing (gravure), including customized stationary
3231119111
Printed decalcomanias and pressure~sensitives (self~adhesive) (gravure), including bumper stickers, etc., except labels
3231119191
All other general commercial gravure printing, nec, including customized stationery and business cards
323111M
Miscellaneous receipts
323111P
Primary products
323111S
Secondary products
323111SM
Secondary products and miscellaneous receipts
Furthermore, the definition of NAICS code 323111 includes the following:
Address lists gravure printing without publishing
Agricultural magazines and periodicals gravure printing without publishing
Art print gravure printing without publishing
Atlases gravure printing without publishing
Business directories gravure printing without publishing
Business forms (except manifold) gravure printing without publishing
Calendars gravure printing without publishing
Cards (e.g., business, greeting, playing, postcards, trading) gravure printing wi
Catalogs gravure printing without publishing
Catalogs of collections gravure printing without publishing
Comic books gravure printing without publishing
Commercial gravure printing
Databases gravure printing without publishing
Directories gravure printing without publishing
Discount coupon books gravure printing without publishing
Financial magazines and periodicals gravure printing without publishing
Globe covers and maps gravure printing without publishing
Gravure printing (except books, manifold business forms, printing grey goods)
Greeting cards (e.g., birthday, holiday, sympathy) gravure printing without publi
Guides, street map, gravure printing without publishing
Intaglio printing
Job printing, gravure
Juvenile magazines and periodicals gravure printing without publishing
Magazines and periodicals gravure printing without publishing
Maps gravure printing without publishing
Music, sheet, gravure printing without publishing
Newsletters gravure printing without publishing
Newspapers gravure printing without publishing
Patterns and plans (e.g., clothing patterns) gravure printing without publishing
Periodicals gravure printing without publishing
Postcards gravure printing without publishing
Posters gravure printing without publishing
Print shops, gravure
Printing, gravure (except books, grey goods, manifold business forms)
Professional magazines and periodicals gravure printing without publishing
Racetrack programs gravure printing without publishing
Racing forms gravure printing without publishing
Radio guides gravure printing without publishing
Radio schedule gravure printing without publishing
Religious magazines and periodicals gravure printing without publishing
Rotogravure printing
Scholarly journals gravure printing without publishing
Scholastic magazines and periodicals gravure printing without publishing
Sheet music gravure printing without publishing
Shipping registers gravure printing without publishing
Stationery, gravure printing, on a job-order basis
Technical magazines and periodicals gravure printing without publishing
Telephone directories gravure printing without publishing
Television guides gravure printing without publishing
Trade journals gravure printing without publishing
Trade magazines and periodicals gravure printing without publishing
Yearbooks gravure printing without publishing.
Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing
Based on the aggregate view of commercial gravure printing as defined above, data were then collected for as many geographic locations as possible for that same definition, at the same level of the value chain. This generates a convenience sample of indicators from which comparable figures are available. If the series in question do not reflect the same accounting period, then adjustments are made. In order to eliminate short-term effects of business cycles, the series are smoothed using an 2 year moving average weighting scheme (longer weighting schemes do not substantially change the results). If data are available for a geographic region, but these reflect short-run aberrations due to exogenous shocks (such as would be the case of beef sales in a state or union territory or city stricken with foot and mouth disease), these observations were dropped or 'filtered' from the analysis.
Step 3. Filling in Missing Values
In some cases, data are available on a sporadic basis. In other cases, data may be available for only one year. From a Bayesian perspective, these observations should be given greatest weight in estimating missing years. Assuming that other factors are held constant, the missing years are extrapolated using changes and growth in aggregate national, state or union territory and city-level income. Based on the overriding philosophy of a long-run consumption function (defined earlier), states or union territories and cities which have missing data for any given year, are estimated based on historical dynamics of aggregate income for that geographic entity.
Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation
Given the data available from the first three steps, the latent demand is estimated using a “varying-parameter cross-sectionally pooled time series model”. Simply stated, the effect of income on latent demand is assumed to be constant unless there is empirical evidence to suggest that this effect varies (i.e., . the slope of the income effect is not necessarily same for all states or union territories or cities). This assumption applies along the aggregate consumption function, but also over time (i.e., not all states or union territories or cities in India are perceived to have the same income growth prospects over time). Another way of looking at this is to say that latent demand for commercial gravure printing is more likely to be similar across states or union territories or cities that have similar characteristics in terms of economic development.
This approach is useful across geographic regions for which some notion of non-linearity exists in the aggregate cross-region consumption function. For some categories, however, the reader must realize that the numbers will reflect a state’s, union territory’s or city’s contribution to latent demand in India and may never be realized in the form of local sales.
Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation
Nonlinearities are assumed in cases where filtered data exist along the aggregate consumption function. Because India has more than 5,000 cities, there will always be those cities, especially toward the bottom of the consumption function, where non-linear estimation is simply not possible. For these cities, equilibrium latent demand is assumed to be perfectly parametric and not a function of wealth (i.e., a city’s stock of income), but a function of current income (a city’s flow of income). In the long run, if a state or union territory has no current income, the latent demand for commercial gravure printing is assumed to approach zero. The assumption is that wealth stocks fall rapidly to zero if flow income falls to zero (i.e., cities which earn low levels of income will not use their savings, in the long run, to demand commercial gravure printing). In a graphical sense, for low income cities, latent demand approaches zero in a parametric linear fashion with a zero-zero intercept. In this stage of the estimation procedure, a low-income city is assumed to have a latent demand proportional to its income, based on the cities closest to it on the aggregate consumption function.
Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking
Based on the models described above, latent demand figures are estimated for all major cities in India. These are then aggregated to get state or union territory totals. This report considers a city as a part of the regional and national market. The purpose is to understand the density of demand within a state or union territory and the extent to which a city might be used as a point of distribution within its state or union territory. From an economic perspective, however, a city does not represent a population within rigid geographical boundaries. To an economist or strategic planner, a city represents an area of dominant influence over markets in adjacent areas. This influence varies from one industry to another, but also from one period of time to another. I allocate latent demand across areas of dominant influence based on the relative economic importance of cities within its state or union territory. Not all cities (e.g. the smaller towns) are estimated within each state or union territory as demand may be allocated to adjacent areas of influence. Since some cities have higher economic wealth than others within the same state or union territory, a city’s population is not generally used to allocate latent demand. Rather, the level of economic activity of the city vis-à-vis others is used. Figures are rounded, so minor inconsistencies may exist across tables.
|
|
|
|
