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The Future of Telecoms - Strategies for 2020 - Which Strategies for Telcos?
IDATE, April 2011, Pages: 100
Drawing on a number of forward-looking studies carried out by IDATE teams, this report provides readers with a portrait of the market in 2020 along with a comprehensive analysis of key telecom market trends, and of telcos' strategic responses to the profound changes taking place in their competitive environment.
Key questions
- What are the key long-term consumption patterns for telecom services?
- What are the potential take-up levels and revenue generated by the different fixed (broadband, voice, VoD, IPTV, VoIP) and mobile (voice, data, VoD, IPTV, VAS) services?
- How will market forces play out for telcos, between pressure from Internet services and changing patterns in calling markets?
- What are telcos' main strategic options for tackling changing consumption patterns and shifting competitive balances?
> Market data for 2010-2020 for each of the countries examined
- France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, the United States
- Subscribers – Penetration rates - Revenue
1. Executive Summary
1.1. Environment: a pervasive and globalized Internet
1.2. Changes in users’ telecom habits over the long term
1.2.1. Four sociotypes and their typical services
1.2.2. The telecom market’s long-term structure
1.2.3. Estimates on the telecom market in 2020
1.2.4. Strategic paths open to telcos
2. Methodology
2.1. “The future of telecoms: strategies for 2020” report methodology
3. Long term developments in consumers’ telecom habits and in the industry as a whole
3.1. Environment: a pervasive and globalized Internet
3.2. Telecom market long-term evolution
3.2.1. Access
3.2.2. Services
3.2.3. Financing
3.2.4. Market structure and stakeholder interplay
3.3. Snapshot of the key long-term developments in telecom habits
3.3.1. Growing use of online video
3.3.2. Fragmentation: multiplatform, multi-device communications
3.3.3. Dividing lines between personal and business communications disappearing
3.3.4. Paid services balancing out free offers
3.3.5. Ubiquitous social networks
3.3.6. User acceptance of digital ID
3.3.7. Ownership of Internet-ready devices
3.3.8. Information overload
3.4. Services and market segments
3.4.1. Summary description of the four socio-types
3.4.2. Viewing habits for each socio-type
3.5. Long-term impact on the telecom market structure
3.6. Snapshot: long-term view of the telecoms industry
4. Telecom market estimates for 2020
4.1. Overall results of the modelling exercise
4.1.1. Methodology
4.1.2. Findings by country
5. Strategic paths available to carriers
5.1. Growth outlets in emerging economies
5.2. Change in product line
5.2.1. End of the all-purpose model
5.2.2. Creation of platforms
5.3. Change of position on the value chain
5.3.1. Vertical integration of networks and content
5.3.2. Portal 2.0: highly-customized content selection
5.3.3. Digital home manager
6. Detailed analysis
6.1. Key trends in consumers’ telecom habits
6.2. Daily consumption of digital video
6.3. Growing importance of user qualification
6.4. Social networking sites’ growing prominence in formal communications
6.5. Building a platform
6.6. Four ICT development scenarios
6.7. Key variables
6.8. Summary description of development scenarios
6.9. Key variables to future developments
List of tables
Table 1: Long-term telecom consumption patterns
Table 2: Long-term telecom consumption patterns
Table 3: Implementation and launch of connected car projects from the leading car-makers
Table 4: Data rates and capacity for mobile wireless technologies
Table 5: Mobile traffic worldwide
Table 6: Strategic paths open to carriers
List of figures
Figure 1: Comparative increase in average individual TV viewing time in five European countries
Figure 2: Consumer video communications: mobile video account for 66% of mobile data traffic in 2014 (39% in 2009)
Figure 3: Growth of online traffic worldwide by type of application, 2009-2014
Figure 4: Mobile traffic growth worldwide by type of device, 2009-2014
Figure 5: Proportion of employees who check their work e-mail on the weekend
Figure 6: Proportion of employees who check their work e-mail while on holiday
Figure 7: Ratio of paid to free applications
Figure 8: Willingness to pay, by type of programme
Figure 9: Monetizing online news
Figure 10: Number of people who have shared a video on a blog, a social network or a video site
Figure 11: Percentage of active Internet users, ages 16 to 54 in a selection of countries, who have created a
profile on a social networking site, 2006-2009
Figure 12: Adoption of Facebook authentication features
Figure 13: Growth of the number of OpenID-compatible accounts, 2006-2009
Figure 14: Global status of mobile network outsourcing contracts (number of contracts)
Figure 15: Rise in available bandwidth (fixed and mobile networks)
Figure 16: Number of 3D screens worldwide
Figure 17: Mobile traffic growth forecasts, 2009-2014
Figure 18: Growth of telecommuters in the United States
Figure 19: Uses made of mobile handsets, worldwide
Figure 20: Uses made of mobile handsets in France
Figure 21: Cellular/SIM M2M modules
Figure 22: Total iPhone, Android and BlackBerry LBS applications released per month
Figure 23: Scale of interest in auto-completion when mobile
Figure 24: Telco CAPEX Figure 25: Increase in public-initiative network rollouts in France
Figure 26: Breakdown of the global online advertising market in 2009
Figure 27: Online ad revenue in Europe (EU-27) (billion EUR)
Figure 28: Telcos’ position with respect to monetizing traffic
Figure 29: Evolution of the main broadband players in France
Figure 30: Mobile market concentration (HHI index)
Figure 31: Emerging economies’ share of total telecom services revenue worldwide
Figure 32: Round-up of the four telecom consumer profiles
Figure 33 : Fixed telecommunications market in France
Figure 34 : Mobile telecommunication market in France
Figure 35 : Fixed telecommunications market in Germany
Figure 36 : Mobile telecommunications market in Germany
Figure 37 : Fixed telecommunications market in Italy
Figure 38 : Mobile telecommunications market in Italy
Figure 39 : Fixed telecommunications market in Spain
Figure 40 : Mobile telecommunications market in Spain
Figure 41 : Fixed telecommunications market in United Kingdom
Figure 42 : Mobile telecommunications market in United Kingdom
Figure 43 : Fixed telecommunications market in the US
Figure 44 : Mobile telecommunications market in the US
Figure 45: Operations in emerging countries in 2009
Figure 46: The Orange "Conquests 2015” plan
Figure 47: Telefónica’s bet: that Latin America will gradually reach the same standard of living as developed countries
Figure 48: Telefónica customer growth
Figure 49: Telefónica revenue growth, by branch
Figure 50: Telefónica’s biggest markets in terms of sales
Figure 51: Keypad-free handset from Bazile Telecom
Figure 52: Current cloud computing market with the sector’s top players
Figure 53: Telefónica’s view of cloud computing
Figure 54: BSkyB’s bundling strategy
Figure 55: Growth of FiOS Internet and FiOS TV subscribers, 2006-2009
Figure 56: FiOS targets high-income households
Figure 57: Deutsche Telekom’s Videoload Free portal
Figure 58: Free as provider of the digital home hub
Figure 59: Programming a recording remotely
Figure 60: Traffic and capacity for an MNO with 17 million subscribers
Figure 61: Mobile data vs. mobile voice revenue growth in advanced and emerging markets (%)
Figure 62: Mobile CAPEX fluctuation over four quarters
Figure 63: Global Internet Average Daily Traffic
Figure 64: Average number of times a month that mobile customers in the United States watch TV or a video on their phone
Figure 65: Graph of couple break-ups on Facebook, based on 10,000 changes in status made by users
Figure 66: Growth of unique monthly visitors in the United States on Facebook, MySpace and Twitter
Figure 67: Ribbit Mobile
Figure 68: Ribbit for Salesforce
Figure 69: Ribbit for developers
Figure 70: Four development scenarios for consumption patterns (disruptive scenarios)
Figure 71: Change in the European population by age group
Figure 72: Change in the American population by race
Figure 73: Annual fluctuation in GDP in the United States and in the Standard & Poor's index
Figure 74: Annual fluctuation in the wholesale price illustrating long cycles in the US
Figure 75: Mobile subscriber growth
Figure 76: Growth of the number of telecommuters in the US, 2006-2008
Figure 77: Change in the percentage of social networking site users in the US
Figure 78: Change in the number of users creating content in the US
Figure 79: IPCC global warming scenarios
Figure 80: Telecom sector’s carbon footprint
Figure 81: Growth in the number of income tax statements filed online
- Bazile Telecom
- ?BskyB
- ?BT-Ribbit
- ?Deutsche Telekom
- ?Iliad/Free
- ?Lebara Mobile
- Orange
- ?Orange in Africa
- ?Telefónica
- Telefónica Tcloud
- ?Telefónica
- ?Verizon
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