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Mobile VoIP - Is it Really a Threat to Operator Voice Revenues?
IDATE, April 2011, Pages: 85
This study looks at the changing landscape of the mobile VoIP market; the main over the top players, the new entrants together with what they bring, and how the operators are reacting. The technical challenges are assessed, and an analysis as to the level of threat mobile VoIP brings to operator revenues is made. It concludes with a scenario for the development of this emerging market.
Key Questions
- Who are the new entrants in the mobile VoIP market and how does it change the competition landscape?
- User experiences, current networks and upcoming LTE deployments - what are the technological challenges ?
- Which major OTT and managed solutions are on the Mobile VoIP market? How are the Internet Giants positioning there?
- What are the key trends for Mobile VoIP applications?
- How will the mobile VoIP market evolve by 2015, in the context of more regulation& competition on the voice market?
Data & Forecasts up to 2015 covered in the report:
- Worldwide mobile VoIP user and pentration of 3G subscribers
- Worldwide mobile VoIP volume (billion minutes)
Contributors
Soichi NAKAJIMA, Head of Project, Senior Consultant
Soichi joined IDATE as a senior consultant in January 2009. His main area of endeavour is the mobile communications market, such as the mobile Internet, applications, contents and services, the analysis of strategies employed by the various players, scenario building and forecasts. He also works on other business potentials for the mobile Internet, such as smart grids and VoIP.
Before coming to IDATE, Soichi worked for NTT DoCoMo, Japan's largest mobile network operator by subscriber numbers, where he played a leading role in the strategic planning of the roll-out of Japan's first 3G M2M data-only tariffs.
Soichi holds a Bachelors degree in mathematics, from the University of Nottingham in the UK.
Sophie LUBRANO, Director of Studies
A member of the IDATE team since November 2000, Sophie Pernet is specialised in demand analysis, particularly in the area of consumer applications. Sophie also contributes her expertise in supply analysis, notably companies' Internet service strategies. Her assignments focus on various aspects of
the telecom industry: Internet, media, landline and mobile telephony.
Prior to joining IDATE, Sophie was an economic consultant for B.I.P.E., where she was in charge of telecom market monitoring.
Ms. Pernet is an economist, with a post-graduate degree from ESLSCA (Ecole Supérieure Libre des Sciences Commerciales Appliquées).
1. Executive Summary
1.1. The changing competition landscape with Internet giants coming in
1.2. Value-added of mobile VoIP is limited to international calling
1.3. Drivers and barriers of mobile VoIP
2. Methodology
3. Technical challenges for mobile VoIP
3.1. Introduction: the various types of mobile VoIP
3.2. User experience
3.2.1. Usability
3.2.2. Availability
3.2.3. QoS
3.2.4. Summary
3.3. Current networks; WiFi, 2G and 3G
3.3.1. Encoding
3.3.2. WiFi coverage will remain spotty, but adequate for the home
3.3.3. 2G networks are not suited for Mobile VoIP
3.3.4. 3G networks: capacity trade-off
3.4. LTE networks: moving towards all-IP
3.4.1. Technological enablers of voice and SMS over LTE
3.4.2. Initial LTE rollouts will rely on CS fallback
3.4.3. In the long term, Voice over IMS solution is expected
3.4.4. Roadmap for VoLTE
3.5. Mobile handsets
3.5.1. 3G handsets
4. Player profiles and strategies
4.1. Mobile operators
4.1.1. Introduction: operators want to protect their voice revenues
4.1.2. The different strategies of mobile operators
4.1.3. Strategise on a national basis
4.1.4. Opportunities and threats
4.1.5. Benchmark of mobile VoIP offered by operators
4.2. Over-the-top players
4.2.1. Competition and strategies overview
4.2.2. Skype
4.2.3. fring
4.2.4. Nimbuzz
4.2.5. Tru
4.2.6. Other start-ups: Viber, TalkFree, Tango
4.3. Internet giants
4.3.1. Competition and strategy overview
4.3.2. Google
4.3.3. Apple
4.3.4. Yahoo!
4.3.5. Facebook
5. Key trends
5.1. Mobile Video over IP services gaining traction
5.1.1. A comparison of the Video over IP offerings
5.1.2. Challenges of video calls
5.2. Becoming the hub for all IP communications
5.2.1. Google Voice synchs with Gmail
5.2.2. Facebook further socialising the concept of communicating
5.3. The battle between operators and VoIP providers for a better pricing proposition
5.3.1. VoIP over WiFi is not very mobile
5.3.2. Genuinely ‘free' calls are rare
5.3.3. International calls are very attractive, whether WiFi or not
5.3.4. How operator voice tariffs have become more attractive
5.3.5. In conclusion – international calls are only real advantage
6. Strategic analysis and forecasts
6.1. Looking to the future
6.1.1. How much of a threat is mobile VoIP to operators?
6.1.2. How will the mobile VoIP competition structure pan out?
6.2. Forecast
6.2.1. Analysis of growth drivers and barriers
6.2.2. Forecast hypotheses
6.2.3. Mobile VoIP forecasts, 2010 – 2015
Tables
Table 1: Summary of user experience issues between managed VoIP, unmanaged VoIP (mobile) and unmanaged VoIP (WiFi)
Table 2: Encoding data rates for various mobile services
Table 3: LTE fallback schemes
Table 4: Penetration of 3G handsets, 2009 and 2014
Table 5: Partnerships and acquisitions between operators and VoIP players
Table 6: National strategies of mobile operators
Table 7: Tariffing of VoIP options
Table 8: National strategies of world operators
Table 9: The VoIP strategies of mobile operators in the USA
Table 10: VoIP strategies of mobile operators in the USA in detail
Table 11: The VoIP strategies of mobile operators in France
Table 12: Details of the mobile VoIP strategies of French operators
Table 13: The VoIP strategies of mobile operators in Germany
Table 14: Details of the mobile VoIP strategies of German operators
Table 15: The VoIP strategies of mobile operators in the UK
Table 16: Details of the mobile VoIP strategies of British operators
Table 17: The VoIP strategies of mobile operators in Italy
Table 18: The VoIP strategies of mobile operators in Spain
Table 19: Details of the mobile VoIP strategies of Spanish operators
Table 20: The VoIP strategies of mobile operators in Austria
Table 21: The VoIP strategies of mobile operators in Sweden
Table 22: The VoIP strategies of mobile operators in Australia
Table 23: Details of the mobile VoIP strategies of Australian operators
Table 24: The VoIP strategies of mobile operators in Japan
Table 25: Details of the mobile VoIP strategies of Japanese operators
Table 26: Overview of the VoIP strategies of mobile operators
Table 27: Table of international call tariffs for MNOs in the USA
Table 28: How the Free rate plan has grown
Table 29: Monthly data plans for smartphones for the four national US operators
Figures
Figure 1: Comparison of price competitiveness between mobile VoIP and MNO plans
Figure 2: Breakdown of mouth-to-ear delay
Figure 3: CS fallback architecture
Figure 4: VoLGA: Voice over LTE via Generic Access
Figure 5: Voice over IMS
Figure 6: LTE deployment scenario of NTT DOCOMO
Figure 7: World mobile data and voice revenues, 2010
Table 5: Partnerships and acquisitions between operators and VoIP players
Figure 8: Relation between openness to VoIP and degree of competition
Figure 9: Trends in the market share of KDDI in Japan
Figure 10: Trends in the market share of 3 in the UK
Figure 11: The A1 over VoIP offer
Figure 12: Connectivity offered by the over-the-top players
Figure 13: Nokia N900, with pre-integrated Skype
Figure 14: Skype on KDDI
Figure 15: The fring service
Figure 16: fring uses data connectivity, not voice minutes
Figure 17: Milestones achieved by Nimbuzz
Figure 18: Tru Anywhere call-through mode
Figure 19: Tru Anywhere call-back mode
Figure 20: Usage statistics of Tango
Figure 21: Connectivity offered by the Internet giant VoIP offering
Figure 22: Features of Google Voice
Figure 23: Google Voice Mobile features
Figure 24: FaceTime from Apple
Figure 25: Yahoo! Messenger with video calling feature
Figure 26: Facebook page seen through Skype
Figure 27: Comparison of functions between video call providers
Figure 28: Google Voice in Gmail; incoming call
Figure 29: Google Voice in Gmail; making a call
Figure 30: The new Facebook Messages
Figure 31: International VoIP calling rate plan: Skype example
Figure 32: The ‘Orange Open' offer by Orange France – at a glance
Figure 33: Comparison of price competitiveness between mobile VoIP and MNO plans
Figure 34: VoIP share of fixed telephony revenues, 2006 and 2009
Figure 35: Mobile termination rate caps (pence per minute)
Figure 36: Worldwide mobile VoIP user forecast (million) and % penetration of 3G subscribers, 2010 - 2015
Figure 37: Worldwide mobile VoIP volume forecast (billion minutes), 2010 - 2015
Over-the-top players:
- fring
- Nimbuzz
- Skype
- TalkFree
- Tango
- Tru
Internet Giants:
- Google
- Apple
- Yahoo!
- Facebook
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