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Philippines Defence and Security Report Q2 2011
Business Monitor International, April 2011, Pages: 77
Philippines Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Philippines's defence and security industry.
The Philippines faces a number of security and political challenges. Given the low income levels and high levels of inequality in the country, we expect the Philippines to remain vulnerable to intermittent instances of turmoil.
The Philippines has experienced a number of terrorist attacks over the past decade, linked to both Islamist and communist rebels. However, Manila has received solid backing from Washington, which officially designates the Philippines a major non-NATO ally. This provision allows for increased military assistance by the US to the Philippines and ensures that the country has access to external expertise in combating domestic insurgencies.
Nevertheless, the Islamist group is a strong force in the country. The government and Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) held peace talks in Malaysia in mid January 2011. This was the first time that new President Aquino had participated in the talks. Formal negotiations started in February in Oslo. Philippine government negotiator Alexander Padilla and the negotiator for communist rebel group New People's Army (NPA), Luis Jalandoni, agreed to a plan on February 21 to continue peace negotiations and resolve their conflicts by June 2012. This was announced subsequent to the end of the first phase of peace negotiations in Norway. This negotiation was the first formal peace meeting between the government and rebels in six years. Given the long-running nature of the conflict, we are not optimistic that the target can be met. The government has also reached a ceasefire agreement with the New Peoples Army (NPA) on December 2. A ceasefire was in place from December 16 to January 3, the longest cease fire for over 10 years. On December 14, the NPA killed 10 soldiers and one child in Northern Samar.
Apart from security threats, other adverse factors include: poverty and unemployment, the familydominated political system, the country’s propensity for popular unrest and military discontent.
Defence spending will be greatly increased in FY11, rising by 81% to PHP104.5bn (US$2.39bm). It will enhance the armed forces’ response to domestic rebel violence, as well as assist in containing any military threat from China.
Economically, following the positive outturn in Q210, we have revised our 2010 real GDP growth forecast to 6.2% (from 4.9% previously). However, we maintain our view that the Philippine economy will suffer from a Chinese slowdown in 2011, with growth projected to weaken to 4.0% in 2011. However core inflation has ticked up to 3.9% y-o-y in January 2011 (the highest level in five months) and with global food prices and oil prices staying elevated, we believe that the central bank may see the need to raise interest rates in the coming months.
We view President Benigno Aquino III's initial performance in the Philippines' top post as generally favourable, having seen signs of a reduction in the high level of corruption, as well as increased investment activity. That said, we expect more challenges – such as the recent jueteng (gambling-linked) scandal – to surface in time which, if not properly resolved, could undermine the fledging administration. Nevertheless, we maintain our view that the Philippines will see a marked reduction in corruption levels by the end of Aquino's tenure in 2016, which should translate into a better business environment and attract more overseas investment over the longer term.
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