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South Korea Defence and Security Report Q2 2011
Business Monitor International, April 2011, Pages: 87
South Korea Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on South Korea's defence and security industry.
Tensions with North Korea have continued to define the security outlook in South Korea this quarter. Following a series of violent outbreaks at the end of 2010, South Korea has redefined its rules of engagement with regard to future North-South disputes. Reports that North Korea has already built an advanced uranium enrichment facility with the potential to produce nuclear weapons have been a key driver in changes.
Factionalism continues to plague the political landscape, and this is expected to be exacerbated in the coming months as elections draw closer. Although the ruling Grand National Party (GNP) regained some ground with its small but meaningful victory in 2010 by-elections, we expect the 2012 elections to be a tight contest between the incumbent and the main opposition Democratic Party (DP). Meanwhile, promoting populist policies appears to be a common theme in both parties’ electoral strategies.
South Korea is likely to see a renewed push for constitutional change over the coming years in order to address imbalances in the political system that lead to periodic instability. In addition, owing to the single-term restriction on the presidency, most presidents typically become ‘lame ducks’ well before departing office, leaving the country in a state of drift. Short-term political ratings for North Korea remain high, reflecting our belief that policy continuity will prevail with Kim Jong Il’s successor.
Stronger than expected headline growth statistics for Q410 are expected to make a slight dent on 2011 activity. However, defence expenditure is still expected to rise to US$34bn in 2011. Heavy investment along with international cooperation has boosted the sector and projects such as the T-50 Golden Eagle supersonic trainer jet are expected to play an essential part of the country’s export mix.
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