|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Taiwan Defence and Security Report Q2 2011
Business Monitor International, April 2011, Pages: 78
Taiwan Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Taiwan's defence and security industry.
In theory, Taiwan remains a renegade province of China that is separate from the mainland, with its position guaranteed by its own substantial armed forces and the support of the US. In practice, economic linkages between Taiwan and the mainland continue to grow, to the benefit of both. The level of trade and investment between Taiwan and China makes any precipitative move – either military or political – ever less likely.
Taiwan’s formal status therefore remains, and is likely to remain, ambiguous. There is a balance of political, economic and military forces that hold the status quo in place. A Chinese invasion to take the ‘province’ by force would cause enormous damage, provoke a US response and alienate China internationally.
Taiwan cannot simply declare independence. Firstly, that would provoke a Chinese response, at the very least economically. Secondly, few countries in the world would choose to recognise any such declaration and cut themselves off from China. Voluntary reunification is supported by only 9% of voters in Taiwan, so is not possible either.
Economically, Taiwan is in a strong position. Its economy grew by an impressive 10.5% in 2010. The future prospects are sound, even though we are retaining our below consensus forecast for GDP growth of 4.3% in 2011.
For some years Taiwan has looked to build an indigenous defence industry, building a skills base in order to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers. Taiwan has been developing: its own fighter aircraft, a main battle tank (MBT), an air defence system, phased surveillance and fire-control radars, and anti-ship and antiaircraft missile systems. Over the course of H210, the government confirmed that its defence industry is working on a new fast-attack missile boat (which is still at the design stage), unmanned reconnaissance drones and cruise missiles. Even so, reliance on foreign high-technology transfer in certain cases – including the aerospace sector – remains high.
The US has been the made military supporter and the main arms supplier to Taiwan. In recent times, China has become increasingly vocal about the supply of advanced weapons systems from the US to China. As a result, the reality is that some equipment, such as F-16 fighters and new submarines may never be delivered.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
|
|
|
|
