United States Defence and Security Report Q2 2011
Business Monitor International, April 2011, Pages: 130
United States Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on United States's defence and security industry.
On March 19 2011 a coalition of forces from several nations, including the US, launched airstrikes on Libya, ostensibly to enforce UN Security Council Resolution 1973. This resolution called for an immediate ceasefire between Libya’s government, headed by Colonel Muammar Qadhafi, and rebel forces who had taken much of the east of the country in an uprising before Qahdafi’s troops pushed them back. The has been a widespread perception that the Obama administration was reluctant to become embroiled in another conflict overseas, but encouragement from Britain and France, and judgment that it was better to act than to do nothing, prevailed.
In BMI’s view, Western airstrikes against Libya seem to lack a coherent political strategy, which suggests that Qadhafi can sit out the storm, unless his closest allies betray him, or he is killed in an airstrike. Even if Qadhafi is removed, Libya will remain vulnerable to prolonged instability, and possibly civil war. The lack of clarity in the West's political strategy could mitigate the mission's successes, should there be any. The US’s engagement in Libya is likely to run up considerable costs, though at present they pale in comparison to those in Iraq and Afghanistan. The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments estimates that the enforcement of the no-fly zone in Libya could cost between US$100m to US$300m per week to enforce, AP reported in March. If the operation is relatively short, it is understood that the Pentagon could cover costs from its own budget, but a prolonged war would push up costs considerably.
In March 2011, Boeing was awarded the US$3.5bn contract for the construction, design and development of new tankers, as reported by Zack’s. It is expected to deliver 18 combat ready units by 2017. Over the longer term, the Air Force aims to replace 179 of the 400 currently operating KC-135 tankers, with contracts worth upwards of $30bn. Notably, the KC-46A will also help support around 50,000 US-based jobs with Boeing, as well as more than 800 suppliers across the country, at a time in which the defence industry is adjusting to lower spending growth rates domestically.
The US government is still looking into reforming regulations on defence exports in order to boost sales overseas while protecting strategically important technology. The changes would seek to consolidate the multi-layered bureaucracy associated with defence exports, and the move has been strongly supported by the defence industry and advocates of the sector, who wish to see export growth to offset losses from reined in domestic spending.
It remains to be seen to what extent exports can take up the slack caused by constrained domestic spending – exports have averaged an equivalent of 23% of US military procurement since 1970 – foreign sales are seen as increasingly important. While critics point out that many other countries are scaling back spending, emerging markets, particularly in Africa, the Middle East and Asia, are investing heavily in defence, creating opportunities that are readily being seized by other major defence exporters such as France, the UK and China.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
US Security SWOT
US Political SWOT
US Economic SWOT
US Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
The United States
China
Japan And The Koreas
Russia
Europe
India
Brazil
Turkey
Iran
Egypt, Saudi Arabia And Pakistan
Terrorism
Africa
Space
Competition
Wild Card In Global Politics
Conclusion
Security Risk Analysis
Developed States Security Risk Ratings
Table: Developed States Security Risk Ratings
Table: Developed State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
US Security Risk Ratings
City Terrorism Rating
Table: BMI Americas City Terrorism Index
Political Overview
Domestic Politics
Long-Term Political Outlook
Foreign Policy
Domestic Security Overview
Internal Security
Transit Vulnerability
Internal Terrorism
Cyber-Terrorism
Pandemics
Crime And Drugs
External Security Situation
Table: Regional Insurgent Groups – US-Designated Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs)
Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR)
Iran
North Korea
The Afghanistan Campaign
Iraq
Yemen
Armed Forces And Government Spending
International Deployments
Table: Foreign Deployments
Afghanistan: Trying To End The Stalemate
IEDs – More Deadly
Iraq – Drawing Down, But What Next?
Casualties
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Nuclear And Missile Defence Policy
Market Overview
Arms Trade Overview
New Markets
Industry Trends And Developments
Defence And Procurement Trends And Developments
Major New Products And Technical Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
Armed Forces
Table: US Armed Forces Personnel, 2000-2008 (‘000)
Table: US Armed Forces – Available Manpower For Military Service, 2008-2015 (aged 16-49)
Government Expenditure On Defence Industry
Table: US Armed Forces Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015
Table: Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2008-2015 (US$mn)
Defence Trade
Table: US Defence Exports, 2008-2015 (US$mn)
Table: US Defence Imports, 2008-2015 (US$mn)
Table: US Defence Trade Balance, 2008-2015 (US$mn)
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: United States – Economic Activity, 2008-2015
Company Profiles
Boeing
General Dynamics
L-3 Communications
Lockheed Martin
Northrop Grumman
Raytheon
Country Snapshot: US Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 (US$)
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
City Terrorism Rating
Table: Methodology
Sources
- Boeing
- General Dynamics
- L-3 Communications
- Lockheed Martin
- Northrop Grumman
- Raytheon
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