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Canada Oil and Gas Report Q2 2011
Business Monitor International, April 2011, Pages: 98
The Canada Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Canada's oil and gas industry.
The new Canada Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 10.80% of North American regional oil demand by 2015, while contributing 29.09% to supply. In North America, overall oil consumption reached an estimated 21.38mn b/d in 2010. It is set to rise to around 21.76mn b/d by 2015. North American regional oil production averaged an estimated 12.39mn b/d in 2010 and is set to rise to 13.75mn b/d by 2015. Net imports for the region should be 8.01mn b/d in 2015 down from an estimated 8.99mn b/d in 2010.
In terms of natural gas, North America consumed an estimated 746bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010, with demand of 725bcm targeted for 2015, representing a decline of 2.82%. Estimated production of 718bcm in 2010 should ease to 708bcm in 2015, which implies net imports falling to just 17bcm by the end of the period. Canada’s share of gas consumption in 2010 was an estimated 12.88%, and it contributed 23.12% to regional production. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 14.49%, with 22.32% of regional supply.
The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45/bbl for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year.
The 2011 supply, demand and price forecasts were set in early January, targeting global oil demand growth of 1.53% and supply growth of 1.91%. With OECD inventories at the top of their five-year average range, we set a price forecast of US$80/bbl average for the OPEC basket in 2011. The unprecedented wave of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that followed the removal of Tunisian President Ben Ali on January 14 has obviously fundamentally altered our outlook, particularly since the unrest spread to Libya in mid-February.
Taking into account the risk premium that has been added to crude prices in response to actual and perceived threats to supply, we have now raised our benchmark OPEC basket price forecast from US$80 to US$90/bbl for 2011 and from US$85 to US$95/bbl for 2012. Based on our expectations for differentials, this gives a forecast for Brent at US$94/bbl in 2011 and US$99/bbl in 2012. We have kept our long-term price assumption of US$90/bbl (OPEC basket) in place for the time being while we wait to see what path events in the MENA region take. We have also retained our existing supply and demand forecasts until the scheduled quarterly revision at the start of April.
The analyst assumes that Canadian real GDP rose by 2.9% in 2010. We are assuming 2.8% average annual growth in 2011-2015. The country’s oil demand is expected to average 2.28mn b/d in 2011, before rising to 2.35mn b/d by 2015. Total oil output looks set to reach 4.00mn b/d by 2015, subject to the pace of oil sands development. Gas demand of an estimated 96bcm in 2010 should reach 105bcm by 2015, with production down from an estimated 166bcm to 58bcm.
Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Canadian oil production of 34.7%, with output rising steadily from an estimated 3.34mn b/d in 2010 to 4.50mn b/d at the end of the 10-year forecast period. Given that oil consumption is forecast to increase by 7.2%, exports should rise from an estimated 1.07mn b/d to 2.06mn b/d during the forecast period. Gas production (including shale gas and coal bed methane) should ease from the estimated 2010 level of 166bcm to 153bcm by 2020. Demand is forecast to rise from an estimated 96.1bcm to 113.2bcm, leaving end-period net exports of 39.8bcm, largely to the US. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
According to BMI’s country risk team, Canada’s long-term political risk score is 94.2, compared with the Developed Markets average of 87.8 and the global average of 62.9. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 71.7, above the Developed Markets average of 67.2 and above the global average of 52.9. Canada has a privatised energy sector that boasts a large, competitive upstream oil and gas segment featuring domestic independents and integrated companies, plus direct and indirect participation by international oil companies (IOCs). The downstream segment is shared by IOC-controlled domestic companies and former state company Petro-Canada, which Suncor acquired in 2009.
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