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Denmark Oil and Gas Report Q2 2011
Business Monitor International, April 2011, Pages: 68
The Denmark Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Denmark's oil and gas industry.
The Denmark Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for just 1.36% of Developed European regional oil demand by 2015, while contributing 5.10% to supply. In Developed Europe, overall oil consumption in 2010 was an estimated 13.02mn barrels per day (b/d). It is set to recover to around 13.18mn b/d by 2015. Developed Europe regional oil production was 6.96mn b/d in 2001, and in 2010 averaged an estimated 4.40mn b/d. It is set to fall to just 3.53mn b/d by 2015. Oil imports are growing steadily because supply is contracting and demand is rising, albeit slowly. In 2010, net crude imports were an estimated 8.62mn b/d. By 2015, they are expected to have reached 9.65mn b/d. Norway will remain the only major net exporter, with the UK a growing net importer.
As regards natural gas, the Developed Europe region in 2010 consumed an estimated 416.5bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 457.1bcm targeted for 2015, representing 9.7% growth. Production of an estimated 255.7bcm in 2010 is set to fall to 254.0bcm in 2015, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2010 level of 160.8bcm to some 203.1bcm by the end of the period. Denmark’s share of gas consumption in 2010 was an estimated 1.08%, while it will have contributed around 3.21% to production. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be little changed at 1.07%, with a 2.36% contribution to regional supply.
The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45/bbl for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year.
We set our 2011 supply, demand and price forecasts in early January, targeting global oil demand growth of 1.53% and supply growth of 1.91%. With OECD inventories at the top of their five-year average range, we set a price forecast of US$80/bbl average for the OPEC basket in 2011. The unprecedented wave of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that followed the removal of Tunisian President Ben Ali on January 14 has obviously fundamentally altered our outlook, particularly since the unrest spread to Libya in mid-February.
Taking into account the risk premium that has been added to crude prices in response to actual and perceived threats to supply, we have now raised our benchmark OPEC basket price forecast from US$80 to US$90/bbl for 2011 and from US$85 to US$95/bbl for 2012. Based on our expectations for differentials, this gives a forecast for Brent at US$94/bbl in 2011 and US$99/bbl in 2012. We have kept our long-term price assumption of US$90/bbl (OPEC basket) in place for the time being while we wait to see what path events in the MENA region take. We have also retained our existing supply and demand forecasts until the scheduled quarterly revision at the start of April.
Danish real GDP is assumed by BMI to have risen by 2.1% in 2010. We are forecasting 2.2% average annual growth in 2011-2015. We expect the country’s 2010 oil and liquids production to have been about 245,000b/d, down from 265,000b/d in 2009. By 2015, liquids volumes look set to have slipped to 180,000b/d. Oil demand could rise to 179,000b/d by 2015, implying net exports slipping from an estimated 70,000b/d in 2010 to virtually nothing by the end of the period. Estimated 2010 gas production of 8.2bcm is expected to fall to 6.0bcm by 2015. Domestic gas consumption rising from an estimated 4.5bcm to 4.9bcm over the period 2010-2015 suggests that net exports will fall from 3.7bcm to 1.1bcm by the end of the forecast period.
Between 2010 and 2020, we forecast a decrease in Danish oil production of 22.5%, with output slipping from an estimated 245,000b/d in 2010 to a low of 175,000b/d in 2014, before rebounding to 200,000b/d by 2018. Given a mere 4.0% increase in oil consumption over the period, estimated 2010 exports of 70,000b/d will have shrunk to just 8,000b/d by 2020. Gas production should fall from the estimated 2010 level of 8.2bcm to 5.5bcm by 2020. Given gas demand rising by 14.9% during the period, net exports of just 0.3bcm will be available by 2020. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
According to the analyst country risk team, Denmark’s long-term political risk score is 93.5, compared with the Developed Markets average of 87.8 and the global average of 62.9. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 75.7, well above the Developed Markets average of 67.2 and above the global average of 52.9. There is a partly privatised energy sector, with government majority ownership of the key company DONG Energy. Denmark has a mature and competitive upstream oil and gas segment, featuring national and international companies. The downstream oil segment is small, open to competition and deregulated.
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