|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Germany Oil and Gas Report Q2 2011
Business Monitor International, April 2011, Pages: 86
The Germany Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Germany's oil and gas industry.
This latest Germany Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for 17.81% of developed European regional oil demand by 2015, making a contribution of just 1.05% to supply. In Developed Europe, overall oil consumption was an estimated 13.02mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010 and is forecast to recover to around 13.18mn b/d by 2015. Developed Europe regional oil production was 6.96mn b/d in 2001, and averaged an estimated 4.40mn b/d in 2010. It is set to fall to just 3.53mn b/d by 2015. Oil imports are growing steadily because supply is contracting and demand is rising, albeit slowly. Net crude imports were an estimated 8.62mn b/d in 2010 and are expected to have reached 9.65mn b/d by 2015. Norway will remain the only major net exporter, with the UK a growing net importer.
The Developed Europe region consumed an estimated 416.5bn cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas in 2010, with demand of 457.1bcm targeted for 2015, representing 9.7% growth. Production of an estimated 255.7bcm in 2010 is set to fall to 254.0bcm in 2015, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2010 level of 160.8bcm to some 203.1bcm by the end of the period. Germany’s share of gas consumption in 2010 was an estimated 19.21%, while it accounted for around 4.69% of production. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 18.92%, with a 3.94% share of production.
The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45/bbl for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year.
We set our 2011 supply, demand and price forecasts in early January, targeting global oil demand growth of 1.53% and supply growth of 1.91%. With OECD inventories at the top of their five-year average range, we set a price forecast of US$80/bbl average for the OPEC basket in 2011. The unprecedented wave of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that followed the removal of Tunisian President Ben Ali on January 14 has obviously fundamentally altered our outlook, particularly since the unrest spread to Libya in mid-February.
Taking into account the risk premium that has been added to crude prices in response to actual and perceived threats to supply, we have now raised our benchmark OPEC basket price forecast from US$80 to US$90/bbl for 2011 and from US$85 to US$95/bbl for 2012. Based on our expectations for differentials, this gives a forecast for Brent at US$94/bbl in 2011 and US$99/bbl in 2012. We have kept our long-term price assumption of US$90/bbl (OPEC basket) in place for the time being while we wait to see what path events in the MENA region take. We have also retained our existing supply and demand forecasts until the scheduled quarterly revision at the start of April.
BMI calculates German real GDP increasing 3.6% in 2010 and we forecast 2.0% average annual growth in 2011-2015. Our expectation is one of minimal oil demand growth to 2015, with end-period consumption at no more than 2.35mn b/d after declining demand in 2009/10. Gas consumption is now 24% of primary energy demand, accounting for 11% of power generation supply. Our forecast is for gas demand to rise from an estimated 80bcm in 2010 to 87bcm by 2015. Germany’s gas production is forecast to fall from an estimated 12bcm in 2010 to 10bcm over the period.
Between 2010 and 2020, we forecast a decline in German oil and gas liquids consumption of 7.7%, with volumes peaking at an estimated 2.42mn b/d in 2010 then heading lower to 2.23mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Production is set to fall from an estimated 50,000b/d to just 20,000b/d during the same period. Gas demand should rise from the 2010 level of 80bcm to 94bcm by 2020. Imports are expected to peak at 86bcm in 2020, in the form of pipeline volumes. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
According to BMI’s country risk team, Germany’s long-term political risk score is 87.8 out of 100, compared with the Developed Markets average of 87.8 and the global average of 62.9. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 66.1, in line with the Developed Markets average of 67.2 and above the global average of 52.9. Germany has a privatised energy sector operating under EU guidelines. There is a small upstream oil and gas segment, with international oil company (IOC) and local company involvement. Downstream oil features a mixture of IOCs and domestic companies, while gas and electricity interests remain in largely German (non-state) hands.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
|
|
|
|
