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Global Oil Price Trends – Why And How?
Nandini Consultancy, May 2013, Pages: 70
This publication has been brought out on the basis of extensive research and discussion with cross section of organizations and individuals involved in the field.
Objective of the publication
In the last two decades, price of the crude oil has been widely fluctuating in the global market, creating enormous stress for the economy of several countries in the world.
OPEC countries often claim that they supply adequately to the world market but such claims are not reflected by the price stability.
While the demand for oil is rapidly increasing, the tactics and tricks of global merchants, traders and speculators have made the oil pricing scenario extremely confusing.
This research oriented and investigative publication has been released with the objective of providing some clarity on the oil price scenario to the millions of consumers around the world, who, amongst their busy schedule, are made to wonder as to what would be in store for them in future and how they should make their future plans and priorities, in the light of the ever spiralling crude oil price
Contents of the publication
The publication discusses about the global demand supply scenario for crude oil, price drivers, causes for uncertainty in oil price and futuristic price scenario.
1. Oil Price History – Fall and Peak.
1.1 Why do we need to understand oil price movements.
1.2 History of oil prices.
Fig.1 : Crude Oil Price 2008 Dollars.
1.2.1 Post World War II Scenario.
1.2.2 Supply Interruptions – Arab Oil Embargo.
1.2.3 Iran – Iraq Issues.
1.2.4 US Energy Policy during 1973 - 80.
1.2.5 Post 1980.
Fig 2 : Crude Oil prices 2006 - 2011.
1.3 Crude Oil Price Benchmarks.
2. Factors driving oil price.
3. Global and regional demand/supply scenario and how it impacts the price.
3.1 Crude Oil Consumption Trends.
3.2. Changing region wise consumption pattern.
Table 1 : Region wise crude oil consumption pattern.
3.3 Past consumption trend in major economies.
Table 2 : Past crude oil consumption trends in major economies.
3.4 Global demand trends.
Table 3 : Projections of crude oil demand by various agencies ( million barrels per day ).
3.4.1 Demand projections upto 2035.
Table 4 : Demand projections for crude oil upto 2035.
3.4.2 Emerging market demand projection – Reference case.
Table 5 : Demand projections for crude oil in emerging markets till 2035.
3.4.3 Emerging markets demand projection – High economic growth.
Table 6: Demand projections for crude oil in emerging markets ( high economic growth ) upto 2035.
3.4.4 Sector wise oil consumption.
Fig 3 : OECD vs Non OECD Cumulative Demand Growth by Use.
3.4.5 Oil importers and exporters.
Table 7 : Top Oil Importers of the world.
Table 8 : Top Oil Exporters of the world.
3.4.6 Oil demand growth – Chinese contribution.
Table 9 : China's growth in production and consumption of oil
Fig 4 : China's growth in production and consumption of oil
Fig 5 : China's contribution to global crude oil demand growth.
Fig 6 : China's sources of energy.
Fig 7 : China's sources of imported crude.
Table 10 : Major new refinery projects in China.
3.4.7 Oil demand growth – Indian situation.
Table 11 : India's growth in production and consumption of crude oil
Fig 8 : India's growth in production and consumption of crude oil
Fig 9 : India's growth in crude oil imports.
Fig 10 : India's energy consumption by fuel source.
Fig 11 : India's sources for crude oil imports.
Table 12 : India's refinery operators.
Table 13 : India's new refinery projects.
3.5 Crude Oil Past Supply Trends and Future Estimates.
3.5.1 Global proven oil reserves.
Fig 12 : Global proven crude oil reserves 2009.
Table 14 : Longevity of proven crude oil wells.
3.5.2 Supply trend of crude oil in the past.
Table 15 : Region wise supply trends of crude oil
Table 16 : Region wise supply trend of crude oil 2005-2009.
Table 17 : Supply trends by major oil producing countries.
3.5.3 Long term global supply trends.
Table 18 : Supply projections of crude oil till 2035.
Table 19 : Supply projections of crude oil region wise till 2035.
Fig 13 : World Oil Supply Capacity Growth (2009-2015).
Fig 14 : Incremental Change in Crude Production capacity 2009-2015.
Fig 15 : Total non-OPEC crude oil supply growth 2009-2015.
Fig 16 : Non-OPEC country wise supply capacity growth 2009-2015.
3.6 Crude oil supply demand balance.
Table 20 : Supply projections of crude oil till 2035.
Table 21 : Demand projections of crude oil till 2035.
Table 22 : Demand Supply Gap projections of crude oil till 2035.
4. Approach of OPEC countries to oil supply.
4.1 Spare Capacity.
Fig 17 : Spare capacity in crude oil production in OPEC countries 2001 - 2011.
5. Other factors.
5.1 Geopolitical issues.
Fig 18 : Crude oil production by countries in Middle East showing political unrest.
Fig 19: Arab League Index of Unrest.
Fig 20 : Oil price fluctuations during periods of severe political unrest.
5.2 Macro economic concerns and speculative activities.
Fig 21 : Dollar Index chart 2002 - 2011.
5.3 Behaviour of OPEC and non-OPEC countries.
6. Tackling potential oil shock - strategies.
6.1 Looking for Alternates / Substitutes.
Table 23 : Oil yield from various feedstocks.
Table 24 : Overall production of biofuels in various countries in 2007.
6.1.2 Oil Sands.
Fig 22 : Oil sands growth projections till 2015.
Fig 23 : Production from unconventional liquids.
6.2 Optimize and reduce consumption.
Fig 24 : Population growth , GDP growth and energy intensity.
6.3 Short term strategy - Strategic petroleum reserves (SPR).
Table 25 : Strategic Petroleum Reserves in selected countries.
Table 26 : Location of India's newest Strategic Petroleum reserves.