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Brazil Power Report Q2 2011
Business Monitor International, April 2011, Pages: 53
The newly published Brazil Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 43.25% of Latin America regional power generation by 2015, with a potential supply shortfall after system losses etc. BMI’s Latin America power generation assumption for 2010 is 1,212 terawatt hours (TWh), an increase of 5.39% over the previous year. We are forecasting a rise in regional generation to 1,438TWh by 2015, representing an increase of 14.44% during 2011-2015.
Latin American thermal power generation in 2010 is assumed by BMI to have been 449TWh, accounting for 37.0% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2015 is 496TWh, implying 8.52% growth during 2011-2015, trimming the market share of thermal generation to 34.5% thanks to environmental concerns that are promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear power. Brazil’s thermal generation in 2010 will have been an estimated 50.6TWh, or 11.27% of the regional total. By 2015, it is expected to account for 13.88% of regional thermal generation.
In 2010, oil was Brazil’s dominant fuel, accounting for an estimated 44.6% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by hydro at 37.3%, gas at 8.0%, coal at 5.4% and nuclear at 1.4%. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 790mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2015, representing 14.53% growth during 2011-2015. Brazil’s estimated 2010 market share of 37.10% is set to reach 38.98% by 2015. The country’s estimated 13.5TWh of nuclear demand in 2010 is forecast to reach 17.0TWh by 2015, with its share of the regional nuclear market expected to rise from 43.27% to 47.22%.
Brazil is ranked first, well above nearest rival Colombia, in BMI’s updated power sector Business Environment Ratings, thanks to its vast market size and excellent growth prospects. It scores highest in the region for installed generating capacity, electricity generation, PED and its use of renewables (largely hydro-power). Certain country risk factors offset some of the industry strength, but the country seems destined to remain at the head of the table for the foreseeable future.
BMI now forecasts average annual real GDP growth of 5.03% between 2011 and 2015, with the 2011 assumption being an increase of 4.50%. The population is expected to expand from 195mn to 202mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase significantly (by 52% and 16% respectively). Brazil’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 437TWh in 2010 to 541TWh by the end of 2015, providing a potential supply shortfall of 20TWh after power industry usage and system losses. BMI assumes 4.4% average annual growth in electricity generation between 2011 and 2015.
Between 2011 and 2020, we forecast an increase in Brazilian electricity generation of 50.2%, which is above average for the Latin America region. This equates to 26.0% in the 2015-2020 period, up from 19.2% in 2010-2015. PED growth is set to rise from 18.1% in 2011-2015 to 19.0%, representing 49.7% for the entire forecast period. An anticipated increase of 45% in hydro-power use during 2011-2020 is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 30% between 2011 and 2020, with nuclear consumption up by 63%. More details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.
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