- Language: English
- Published: December 2013
- Region: France, Great Britain, United Kingdom
Renewable Energy - Domestic Biomass Market - UK 2010-2020
- Published: August 2010
- Region: United Kingdom
- 82 pages
- AMA Research
In the UK, the domestic market for Biomass boilers is currently underdeveloped, but the government’s target of 15% of energy to be derived from renewables by 2020 assumes significant growth in order to meet this commitment.
The report contains:
- MARKET OVERVIEW – market size for biomass boilers, review of key market influences and analysis of current developments.
- KEY MARKET DRIVERS & BARRIERS TO GROWTH
- REVIEW OF THE SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION STRUCTURE
- FORECASTS FOR MARKET DEVELOPMENTS UP TO 2020 -volumes/product and sector mix
In many European countries, biomass boilers have been an accepted system and technology for over 20 years but overall volume production is still relatively low. Most leading players are parts of major groups involved in the heating industry, with international operations. In the medium term, capacity will need to increase - not only in terms of production, but also in terms of installation capability.
Ares of particular interest include:
- UK market development compared with activity in key European markets
- Government incentives to stimulate developments in the renewable energy sector
- Overview of market drivers and barriers to growth in UK – key opportunities and constraints.
- Residential sector overview - new build, self build, district heating etc.
- Market forecasts up to 2020 – volumes, barriers to growth.
Key areas of coverage in the report include:-
KEY MARKET INFLUENCES
- Housing market structure, UK dwelling stock, housing stock mix by age (2007/2050).
- Growth in proportion of owner-occupied housing.
- Government Incentives - Low Carbon Buildings Programme (LCBP). Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) scheme, Feed-In-Tariffs (FIT’s), The Code for Sustainable Homes.
- Provision of financial support – impact of change in government.
CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUES
- Strategies to combat climate change: the EU Renewable Energy Directive, the UK Renewable Energy Strategy, Code for Sustainable Homes, Warmer Homes Standard.
- Establishment of Renewable Energy Deployment programme.
- Overview of Renewable Energy market in UK – alternative options.
BIOMASS BOILER MARKET
- UK Biomass market overview – product definitions, overview of commercial biomass market (locations, size, ownership, fuel source etc), values 2007-10, mix by material and installation cost. Overview of Biomass Strategy
- Biomass Fuel Sources - market mix by pellets, chips, logs, others. Supply chain issues.
- Overview of UK Domestic boiler market – volumes, values, share by current fuel mix (gas, oil, electric, solid fuel), role of biomass, trends, boiler types (combination, system etc)
- European market overview – market size by volume 2001-09 in key EU markets, share by major country for domestic pellet boilers (comparisons of take-ups, reasons for success in Germany, Austria etc). European and UK growth rates.
- UK biomass boiler market overview – background to recent growth in demand – market size by unit sales and value 2007-10, mix by UK region, biomass share of total boiler market. Review of key market drivers, competition from other renewables.
- Analyis of UK by sector – residential, industrial, commercial, public sectors – share by sector 2010 - recent trends, future projections, key drivers in each sector.
- Barriers to growth – supply chain issues, payback periods, installation, new build/replacement, performance, consumer awareness, etc.
- Forecasts up to 2020 – alternative views, volumes from 2007-20, key influencing factors. Forecasts of growth rates in residential, commercial and industrial sectors up to 2020.
SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION STRUCTURE
- Key players – suppliers, manufactures, installers.
- UK distribution structure – key routes to market.
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1.2 SOURCES OF INFORMATION
2. SUMMARY AND FUTURE PROSPECTS
2.2 FUTURE PROSPECTS
3. ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
3.2 INFLATION & INTEREST RATES
3.4 HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION
3.5 HOUSING & CONSTRUCTION
3.7 POPULATION PROFILE
4 HOUSING MARKET STRUCTURE
4.1 ALL DWELLINGS
4.2 HOUSING STOCK – CURRENT AND FORECASTS UP TO 2050
5. CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUES
5.1 BACKGROUND & CURRENT ENERGY SUPPLIES IN THE UK
5.1.1 Renewable Sources of Energy
5.1.2 Renewable Energy Strategy
6. BIOMASS MARKET OVERVIEW
6.1 BIOMASS FOR ELECTRICITY
6.2 BIOMASS FOR HEAT
7. TRADITIONAL BOILERS
7.2 MARKET SIZE
7.3 MARKET BACKGROUND
7.4 FUTURE PROSPECTS
7.5 FUEL USED
7.6 CONDENSING BOILERS
7.7 TYPES OF BOILER
8. THE MARKET FOR BIOMASS BOILERS
8.3 PRODUCT MIX
8.4 KEY MARKET INFLUENCES
8.4.1 Government Incentives
8.5 BARRIERS TO GROWTH
8.6 GROWTH DRIVERS / OPPORTUNITIES
10. SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION STRUCTURE
10.1 KEY MANUFACTURERS AND SUPPLIERS
10.2 KEY DISTRIBUTORS
TABLE 1: SALES OF BIOMASS BOILER INSTALLATIONS 2007-2010 (BY VOLUME AND VALUE) 6
CHART 2: INTEREST RATES AND INFLATION (CPI) FROM 1992-2014 10
CHART 3: PDI & SAVINGS RATIO AT CURRENT PRICES 1992-2014 12
TABLE 4: EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS 2004-2010 - STERLING TO THE DOLLAR, AND THE EURO, SPOT RATES 14
CHART 5: AGE DISTRIBUTION OF THE RESIDENT UK POPULATION MID-2008 (‘000) 15
TABLE 6: UK DWELLING STOCK BY TENURE (‘000S) 2004-2009 17
CHART 7: HOUSING STOCK BY COUNTRY AND TENURE 2009 (%) 18
CHART 8: DOMESTIC CONSTRUCTION STARTS & COMPLETIONS AND FORECASTS 2004 TO 2014 BY VOLUME 19
CHART 9: UK SOCIAL HOUSING COMPLETIONS 1981-2009 20
CHART 10: MIX OF STOCK OF DWELLINGS BY AGE 2007 – ENGLAND 21
TABLE 11: UK HOUSING STOCK PROFILE – COMPARISONS BY AGE PROFILE 2007 AND 2050 – VOLUME OF DWELLINGS (MILLIONS) 22
CHART 12: FUEL INPUT FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY MILLION TONNES OF OIL EQUIVALENT (TOE) 1989-2009 24
CHART 13: POSSIBLE FUTURE ELECTRICITY GENERATION MIX BY FUEL TYPE 2020 (GAS, NUCLEAR, RENEWABLES, COAL, OTHERS) 26
CHART 14: ELECTRICITY GENERATION FROM RENEWABLE SOURCES (%) (WIND, BIOFUELS, HYDRO, PHOTOVOLTAICS ETC) 27
CHART 15: ILLUSTRATIVE RENEWABLE TECHNOLOGY BREAKDOWN TO REACH 2020 TARGET (DBERR CONSULTATION) 30
TABLE 16: CODE LEVELS 1-6: BUILD COST PREMIUMS BY BUILDING TYPE AND LEVEL 31
TABLE 17: UK BIOMASS POWER STATIONS – LOCATION, OWNERSHIP, FUEL SOURCE, POWER OUTPUT 35
CHART 18: BIOMASS WOODCHIP MARKET – MIX BY SOURCE OF FUEL (WOOD PROCESSING, RECYCLED WOOD, FORESTRY, ARBORICULTURE). 38
CHART 19: UK SUPPLY OF WOODFUEL, (OVEN DRY) ‘000 TONNES 2008 – MIX BY FUEL TYPE. 39
TABLE 20: UK DOMESTIC BOILER MARKET BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2004-2009 41
CHART 21: UK DOMESTIC BOILER MARKET BY TYPE OF FUEL 2008 (GAS, OIL, ELECTRIC, SOLID FUEL) 43
CHART 22: UK DOMESTIC BOILER VOLUME SALES % SHARE BY TYPE 2008(COMBINATION, TRADITIONAL, SYSTEM, OTHER NON-CONDENSING) 44
TABLE 23: SMALL SCALE PELLET BOILER AND STOVE INSTALLATIONS IN EUROPE – KEY COUNTRIES 2001-2008 46
TABLE 24: POLICIES AND MICROGENERATION UPTAKE – KEY TECHNOLOGIES AND MARKET DRIVERS 48
CHART 25: DOMESTIC PELLET BOILERS -TOTAL INSTALLATIONS ESTIMATE 2009 49
TABLE 26: SALES OF BIOMASS BOILER INSTALLATIONS 2007-2010 (BY VOLUME AND VALUE), ALL SECTORS 50
CHART 27: BIOMASS BOILER AND PELLET STOVE INSTALLATIONS UK - 2008 51
TABLE 28: SALES OF DOMESTIC BOILERS (INCLUDING BIOMASS) AND SOLAR THERMAL HEATING INSTALLATIONS UK 2008 - 2010 51
CHART 29: ESTIMATED BOILER SALES – UK 2009 BY FUEL TYPE 52
TABLE 30: PROPOSED TARIFF LEVELS – SOLID BIOMASS 55
CHART 31: NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS ON AND OFF THE MAINS GAS NETWORK – GREAT BRITAIN, 2009 58
CHART 32: AVERAGE GAS CONSUMPTION FOR DOMESTIC CUSTOMERS, 2008 59
CHART 33: FORECAST OF NO. OF BIOMASS INSTALLATIONS FOR THE DOMESTIC MARKET BY 2020 61
CHART 34: FORECAST SALES OF BIOMASS BOILERS BY VOLUME 2009 – 2020, ALL SECTORS 62
CHART 35: ESTIMATED SMALL SCALE BIOMASS INSTALLATIONS IN SELECTED COUNTRIES - 2001 AND 2009 64
CHART 36: THE UK MARKET FOR BIOMASS BOILERS - 2010 (ESTIMATE) – SHARE BY RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL/INDUSTRIAL/PUBLIC SECTOR (BY VALUE). 65
TABLE 37: ILLUSTRATIVE POTENTIAL FOR BIOMASS BOILER INSTALLATIONS - GREAT BRITAIN 2010 AND 2020 BY REGION 66
CHART 38: SELF-BUILD MARKET – COMPLETIONS BY VOLUME 2005-2013 67
CHART 39: HOUSING STOCK NOT CONNECTED TO THE GAS GRID -GT. BRITAIN, 2009 68
TABLE 40: SCOTTISH BIOMASS SUPPORT SCHEME - LIST OF PROJECTS BEING OFFERED GRANT 2009 73
CHART 41: OVERVIEW OF BIOMASS MARKET STRUCTURE 76
TABLE 42: UK DOMESTIC BOILER SUPPLIERS % MARKET SHARE 2008 77
Biomass is material of biological origin and can be either plant or animal matter, although in the context of burning biomass to provide energy for heat and electricity it is likely to be plant matter, such as wood from forestry or processing which is the main feedstock.
A key attraction of using biomass is that it is close to being carbon neutral in terms of the amount of carbon absorbed during its growth is similar to that which is emitted when it is burnt.
As with many of the renewable technologies, estimating the size of the UK market is difficult since there are no official or reliable statistics quantifying either the number of installations to date or the annual sales of biomass boilers / installations into both the domestic and non domestic sectors. Industry sources indicate that in 2009 there were annual sales of between 1,100 – 1,300 residential, commercial and industrial applications.
General industry sources indicate that biomass boilers are beginning a growth phase and there is considerable political drive to include biomass boilers as an integral part of the renewable solution to achieve lower carbon emissions and efficient energy usage.
The residential sector accounts for over 60% of the market by value – and higher by volume – and offers the greatest area for potential market growth in biomass boilers. New build housing particularly in ‘off gas’ areas represents a large potential market but there will also be a large market to be developed in retrofit for existing housing in those areas. Self build is also a key sector where homeowners are more receptive to innovative, higher specification, energy-efficient and environmental products.
On a consistent growth rate basis, our forecasts indicate the number of biomass boiler installations would rise to an estimated 240,000+installations by 2019-20. This is below the figures in all scenarios contained in the latest forecasts suggested by the DECC report which range from 30,000 – 70,000 systems installed per annum rising to 450,000+ installations by 2019-20 in the central scenario.