Timber Frame Housing Market - UK 2010-2014
AMA Research, November 2010, Pages: 77
The Fourth edition of the report "Timber Frame Housing Market – UK 2010-2014” reviews the market for timber frame housing which has experienced tough market conditions since 2007. Incorporating original input and primary research, this unique report represents an up-to-date and informed review of this changing and complex market.
The report provides a detailed analysis of the following sectors:
- UK Market Size – Key trends, influences, international perspective, benefits / disadvantages, Volumes for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, forecast growth.
- Product Mix –Growth of MMC/OSM (Volumetric, Open / Closed Panels, Hybrid Systems). Market sizefor timber, brick / block, steel, concrete modules. Volume trends in timber frame.
- Market Sectors –Shares & trends for RSLs, Private Sector Housebuilders, Self Build.
- Supply Structure / Buying & Specification – Analysis of key suppliers, key buying and specification issues for private, social & self build.
- Future Prospects – Market prospects in 2010-11 and forecasts through to 2014, likely future influences and trends, impact of October Spending Review.
Key issues covered include:
- General growth of MMC within overall housing developments.
- Rapid growth of Timber Frame, particularly in England since 2000.
- Drivers / barriers to growth of timber frame.
- Volume / share of timber frame, steel and concrete in different sectors.
- Forecast projections to 2014 and key market influences – impact of Comprehensive Spending Review.
Major Companies profiled:
Custom Homes, Frame UK, Kingspan Offsite, Merronbrook, Oregon Timber Frame Pinewood Structures, Prestoplan, Robertson Timberkit, Scotframe, Space4 Stewart Milne, Strathclyde Homes, Taylor Lane Timber Frame, Walker Timber Group.
Key areas covered in the report:
THE MARKET
- General housebuilding trends – volumes, mix between houses/apartments, forecasts to 2014.
- UK Market size - timber frame housing volumes 2000-2009, market analysis by volume and forecasts – changes in share of total housebuilding.
- Macro market influences – Affordable Housing, Sustainable Communities Plan, HCA etc.
- Market forecasts & prospects for timber frame in private, social and self build sectors to 2014, regional trends, share prospects.
- Advantages and disadvantages of OSM (off site manufacturing) over traditional housebuilding techniques.
- Market size for Scandinavia, Canada, USA, New Zealand, Scotland, Australia, Ireland, England, Wales.
PRODUCT MIX AND END-USE SECTORS
- Size, shares and trend analysis for brick & block, timber frame, steel / concrete product sectors – shares by volume in private, social and self build sectors.
- Key trends, issues and influences impacting the MMC and OSM product sectors, likely future trends.
- Future prospects for each key product sector.
- Timber Frame volumes by sector 2000-2009 – Private housebuilding, Social Housing, Self Build. Timber frame usage in flats 2006-09.
- Timber frame completions 2000-2009 for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, % of total market, changes in share, Prospects in 2010-11.
- Analysis of macro and micro market influences for the Private, Social and Self Build end use sectors, Affordable Housing Programmes.
- Market size and trends of the Self Build market by volume 2009 – timber frame and traditional.
BUYING AND SPECIFICATION / SUPPLY STRUCTURE
- Review of major OSM/Timber Frame Suppliers – changes in market structure, major players, market shares, company structures/profiles etc.
- Key channels of distribution for timber frame housing.
- Analysis of key buying and specification issues in Timber Frame housing market.
- Self Build processes and responsibility for material / activity.
- Housebuilders – development of joint ventures, increasing attractiveness of OSM, supply chain process, partnering, OSM and traditional housing.
FUTURE PROSPECTS
- Market and sector size forecasts for timber frame housing to 2014.
- Likely future developments and key issues affecting the market in the short to medium term – impact of Coalition Government and Autumn Comprehensive Spending Review.
- Self Build market – future key positive and negative influences.
- Likely future influences – cost, building regs, distribution channels, awareness etc.
- Development of the OSM and MMC sectors in the UK Timber Frame Housing market.
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 BACKGROUND
1.2 SOURCES OF INFORMATION
2. SUMMARY & FUTURE PROSPECTS
3. ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
3.1 GDP
3.2 INFLATION & INTEREST RATES
3.3 UNEMPLOYMENT
3.4 HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION
3.5 HOUSING & CONSTRUCTION
3.6 STERLING
3.7 POPULATION PROFILE
3.8 CONCLUSIONS
4. THE HOUSING MARKET
4.1 BACKGROUND
4.2 PUBLIC HOUSING DELIVERY
4.3 NATIONAL HOUSING STATISTICS
4.4 MODERN METHODS OF CONSTRUCTION
4.4.1 Market Definition
4.4.2 OSM (Off Site Manufacture) and MMC
4.4.3 Non-OSM Modern Methods of Construction
4.5 UK MARKET OVERVIEW
5. TIMBER FRAME HOUSING
5.1 MARKET DEFINITION
5.2 INTERNATIONAL MARKET OVERVIEW
5.3 UK TIMBER FRAME HOUSING MARKET
5.4 SECTOR OVERVIEW
5.5 PRIVATE AND PUBLIC SECTORS
5.6 MARKET FORECASTS
6. TIMBER FRAME – SECTOR ANALYSIS
6.1 ENGLAND – BY REGION
6.2 HOUSE TYPES
6.3 TIMBER FRAME FLATS
6.4 SELF BUILD MARKET
7. TIMBER FRAME SUPPLIERS
7.1 SUPPLY STRUCTURE
7.2 REVIEW OF KEY SUPPLIERS
7.3 DISTRIBUTION STRUCTURE
8. KEY BUYING AND SPECIFICATION ISSUES
8.1 SELF BUILD
8.2 MAJOR DEVELOPERS AND OFF SITE MANUFACTURE
8.3 PARTNERING
9. FACTORS INFLUENCING TRENDS
9.1 ZERO CARBON HOMES
9.2 CODE FOR SUSTAINABLE HOMES (CSH)
9.2.1 Code Assessments
9.2.2 Certificates
9.2.3 Timescales
9.3 ENERGY EFFICIENCY (SAP)
9.4 HOUSEBUILDERS AND TIMBER FRAME SUPPLIERS
9.5 COSTS TO BECOME SUSTAINABLE – MASONRY V TIMBER FRAME
10. FUTURE PROSPECTS
STATISTICS
CHART 1: UK – TIMBER FRAME HOUSEBUILDING STARTS - 2000-2014 BY VOLUME 8
CHART 2: INTEREST RATES AND INFLATION (CPI) FROM 1992-2014 11
CHART 3: PDI & SAVINGS RATIO AT CURRENT PRICES 1992-2014 13
TABLE 4: EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS 2004-2010 - STERLING TO THE DOLLAR, AND THE EURO, SPOT RATES 15
CHART 5: AGE DISTRIBUTION OF THE RESIDENT UK POPULATION MID-2008 (‘000) 16
TABLE 6: HOUSE BUILDING COMPLETIONS 1998-2009 – UNITED KINGDOM (‘000 DWELLINGS) 19
CHART 7: ADDITIONAL AFFORDABLE NEW BUILD HOMES PROVIDED BY TYPE OF SCHEME, ENGLAND 21
CHART 8: UK HOUSEBUILDING MARKET – ESTIMATED MIX BY SECTOR AND BUILD METHOD (TIMBER FRAME, TRADITIONAL, STEEL/CONCRETE) – 2009 BY VOLUME 27
CHART 9: TIMBER FRAME AS A % OF NEW HOUSING IN KEY COUNTRIES 2009 30
TABLE 10: TIMBER FRAME COMPLETIONS 2000 - 2009 – UK – BY VOLUME (‘000 DWELLINGS) AND SHARE 31
TABLE 11: UK TIMBER FRAME HOUSING COMPLETIONS AND MARKET SHARE – ENGLAND, WALES, SCOTLAND AND NORTHERN IRELAND - BY VOLUME 2000-2009 32
CHART 12: UK TIMBER FRAME HOUSING, GROWTH IN COMPLETIONS BY COUNTRY AND BY VOLUME 2000-2009 33
CHART 13: UK TIMBER FRAME HOUSING COMPLETIONS – 2009 BY SECTOR (PRIVATE, SOCIAL AND SELF BUILD) AND BY VOLUME 34
TABLE 14: UK TIMBER FRAME HOUSING COMPLETIONS (EXCLUDING SELF BUILD) PRIVATE & PUBLIC SECTOR 2000- 2009 35
TABLE 15: HOUSING STARTS FORECAST UK – BY VOLUME AND MATERIALS (BRICK & BLOCK, TIMBER FRAME, STEEL/CONCRETE) 2000 - 2014 38
CHART 16: HOUSING STARTS FORECAST UK – BY VOLUME AND MATERIALS (BRICK & BLOCK, TIMBER FRAME, STEEL/CONCRETE) – 2000-2014 40
TABLE 17: UK TIMBER FRAME HOUSING COMPLETIONS AND GROWTH ENGLAND, SCOTLAND, WALES, N.I. - BY VOLUME 2000-2009. 43
CHART 18: TIMBER FRAME VOLUMES IN THE ENGLISH REGIONS 2005-2009 44
CHART 19: SHARE OF HOUSING STARTS – BY HOUSE TYPE UK -2009 46
CHART 20: STARTS AND COMPLETIONS OF TIMBER FRAME FLATS 47
CHART 21: SHARE OF TIMBER FRAME FLATS COMPLETIONS (1-6 STOREYS) – BY ENGLISH REGION 2009 48
CHART 22: SELF-BUILD MARKET BY VOLUME UK 2000-2013 49
CHART 23: ESTIMATED NEW HOUSING COMPLETIONS – PRIVATE/SOCIAL/SELF BUILD – 2009 50
CHART 24: SELF-BUILD MARKET – COMPLETIONS BY VOLUME AND TYPE OF CONSTRUCTION 2005-2013 52
TABLE 25: KEY INFLUENCES AFFECTING FUTURE PROSPECTS OF SELF BUILD TIMBER FRAME HOUSES 54
TABLE 26: MAJOR TIMBER FRAME SUPPLIERS – MARKET SHARES HOUSING SECTOR UK 2009 55
CHART 27: DISTRIBUTION STRUCTURE – TIMBER FRAME HOUSING 61
CHART 28: THE SOCIAL HOUSING SECTOR – SUPPLY CHAIN PROCESS 65
CHART 29: CODE FOR SUSTAINABLE HOMES – CATEGORIES NECESSARY TO ACHIEVE CODE POINTS 67
CHART 30: CODE FOR SUSTAINABLE HOMES – CODE 3-6 LEVEL CERTIFICATES ISSUED AT DESIGN AND CONSTRUCTION STAGE 2009/10 68
TABLE 31: CODE LEVELS 3-6: TIMESCALE FOR INTRODUCTION 69
TABLE 32: TIMBER FRAME – POTENTIAL AREAS OF IMPACT ON CODE LEVELS 71
TABLE 33: KEY INFLUENCES AFFECTING FUTURE PROSPECTS OF OFF SITE MANUFACTURED TIMBER FRAME HOUSES 74
Prior to the change of Government in May 2010, the previous government identified a target of 240,000 new homes a year with a view to achieving 2m new homes by 2016 and a further 1m by 2020. While housebuilding volumes had increased steadily up to 2007, annual completions were still well below this target and, with the downturn from 2008, it soon became clear that these target would not be met. Housebuilding output collapsed in 2008/early 2009 due a combination of factors.
As a result, the volume housebuilders focused their 2008/09 effort on preserving cash through major cutbacks in land buying and introducing a variety of incentives to reduce their housing stock and work in progress. As a result, many reduced their new site developments to an absolute minimum and sold from stock to generate cash.
The top down targets set by the previous government through the regional spatial strategy plans were abolished by the new Coalition government in June 2010 with the intention to give decision-making powers on housing and planning to local councils. The current government intends to incentivise local planning authorities to increase house building and be responsible for establishing the right level of local housing provision in their area.
We estimate that, in 2009, the number of timber frame completions for residential housing in the UK was around 36,000, which is double the 2000 level. However, more relevant for forecasting purposes in the current economic climate is the number of timber frame housing starts in the short / medium term which the chart below illustrates.
Although housing construction starts in Q1 & Q2 of 2010 indicate 40-50% growth on the same quarters in 2009, the indications are that this growth will not be sustained in the short-medium term with activity levels falling in H2 – though still resulting in some growth in overall terms. Our expectation is that there will be little more than static growth throughout 2011 with timber frame housing starts at about the same as 2010 (31,000). Starts are likely to struggle to gain any momentum in Q1 & Q2 and some decline is expected before perhaps achieving modest growth in the latter part of the year.
The considerable underlying demand for housing, particularly in England, leads us to be reasonably optimistic in the medium term with our forecasts, but this is tempered by the recent announcements in the Spending Review relating to social housing funding. While the ‘commitment’ to increase housing supply by the new Coalition government is strong, the funding support will be considerably lower though initial targets of 150,000 social homes over the next 4 years is similar to recent output levels.
The underlying driving factors for timber frame are cost comparisons with traditional methods, consumer acceptance in the private housebuilding sector, continuing strength in the self build market and budget pressures on the social housing market to maintain/increase output to help meet demands for affordable housing. Competition from steel and concrete remains a key factor.
The supply structure for timber frame is relatively fragmented, split between panel system suppliers and kit suppliers. The short to medium term future for timber frame houses, although still optimistic, remains uncertain. This primarily reflects the high uncertainty still surrounding the housebuilding market in general in late 2010.
- Custom Homes
- Frame UK
- Kingspan Offsite
- Merronbrook
- Oregon Timber Frame Pinewood Structures
- Prestoplan
- Robertson Timberkit
- Scotframe
- Space4 Stewart Milne
- Strathclyde Homes
- Taylor Lane Timber Frame
- Walker Timber Group
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