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ROAM Insight Issue #14 Data DVD
Roam Consulting, Jan 2011
For the discerning user ROAM Consulting recommends the Data Analysis Tools DVD, the perfect companion to your ROAM Insight printed report. The DVD provides the user with a suite of Microsoft Excel-based analytical spreadsheets, providing the capability to burrow into the underlying half hourly dispatch data of each simulation case in order to focus on results specific to the user's needs. The user can then make further conclusions from this data, supplementing those which are published in the report.
Summary:
Since its first year of publication in 2000, ROAM Insight has become an invaluable reference for a wide range of participants in the Australian National Electricity Market.
Avid consumers of our Insight publication will be well aware that Issue #13 for 2009 never came to market. The end of 2009 was a turbulent time for greenhouse policy in the Federal parliament, with the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme voted down in the Senate in August. Amendments were made and on 24 November, the Government secured in-principle support for the bill from the Opposition. However, agreement was short-lived. On 1 December, Malcolm Turnbull lost the Liberal party leadership to Tony Abbott, who staunchly opposed the bill. The subsequent Senate vote on 2 December saw the CPRS defeated for a second time, creating a double dissolution election trigger. The uncertainty surrounding the outcomes of the UNFCCC Copenhagen conference on 6-18 December also dominated the policy discussion.
In such a rapidly changing environment, any report published would have been out of date within days. Moreover, ROAM was heavily engaged in assisting the AEMO and Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism with modelling for the National Transmission Network Development Plan and Energy White Paper.
We took the executive decision to postpone publication until there was greater policy clarity. With the result of the Federal election known and carbon pricing back on the table, we are pleased to present ROAM Insight Issue #14.
Analysis of the past:
Our popular review of the NEM has been expanded to cover the past two years since the publication of ROAM Insight #12. On average, the weather was very mild leading to energy usage and peak demands well below forecast expectations. However, extreme weather events also had a significant impact on the grid at times. The heatwave which sparked the tragic Victorian Black Saturday bushfires brought down a number of significant transmission lines and also shut down the Basslink interconnector to Tasmania. Wind generation has also increased, with just under 1000 MW of new wind farms commissioned in the past two years. In every region, the incidence of negative price periods has increased markedly; of the total number of negative price periods since the formation of the NEM in 1998, more than half occurred in the past two years.
Insight into the future:
The hot topics are still the emissions reduction policies; in particular, the Expanded Renewable Energy Target, its division into the Large-scale Renewable Energy Target and Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme, and the possible introduction of a price on carbon emissions in the near future. Several State and Territory governments have also introduced policies aimed at curbing emissions, some of which pertain specifically to the electricity sector. The emerging east coast LNG industry is another game changer with major implications for both supply and demand of electricity. All such developments will affect:
- market pool prices
- generator production volumes and revenues
- transmission utilisation and congestion
- estimated quantities of expected unserved energy by region, and much more.
ROAM Insight #14 presents ROAM’s insight into the future (2010-11 to 2015-16) based on the broad and deep knowledge gained by our consultants through completing a wide range of assignments over the past two years.
Key assignments include:
- Early planning for the National Transmission Network Development Plan and modelling for the Energy White Paper with AEMO and DRET
- Developing Minimum Reserve Levels for the NEM for the next two years with AEMO
- The Reliability Standard Settings Review with the AEMC
- The capability of transmission networks to cope with renewable generation to meet the eRET with the Clean Energy Council
Also available
ROAM Insight Issue #14 Report
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