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Japanese Mobile NFC Payment Forecast
ROA Holdings, April 2011, Pages: 78
This report is written in Japanese language and introduces the latest developments regarding mobile NFC payments in the Japanese market. The report includes a market forecast (2011-2016) as well as business case studies on the main players, such as NTT Docomo, KDDI, Softbank Mobile, Samsung, LGE, Nokia, Apple and Japanese device manufacturers.
Currently, NFC is being introduced in the Japanese market, however a similar technology called Felica, that is based on contactless applications, is already available in the market. Felica, also known as ‘Mobile Wallet’ (Osaifu-Keitai) has already been available for about 7 years in Japan, and has been used for mobile payments, but except the traffic segment, the ecosystem is still insufficient to bring profit to all the stakeholders involved.
In terms of technology itself, NFC does not differ much from Felica and it is not expected to replace Felica in the Japanese market. Therefore, the future business models based on NFC are not assumed to bring significant changes into the current business models of Felica, meaning that in Japan, NFC technology will not reach to the level of creating a completely new market.
Assuming that NFC phone will be introduced in the Japanese market in the latter half of 2011, and considering that it will grow with Felica, it is estimated that the NFC technology based mobile payment, concentrating on the post-paid segment will grow to the size of JPY 50 billion by 2016.
The forecast on the NFC market is mainly covering four areas including ID verification service, coupon, point and credit card payment as well as other services. The ID verification comprehends tasks ranging from simple membership recognition to entry management systems. Coupon and point are enabled by handsets with an embedded NFC chip. Credit card payment and other services include the possibility of both pre-paid and post-paid markets, however it is estimated that the post-paid service linked with credit card information will form the main trend in Japan and other markets in the future.
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