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Alpha India Indices - The SBI Case

Orpheus Capitals, May 2011, Pages: 6


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The SBI case

Today’s Alpha India report carries an illustrative example of how best performers tend to underperform once the performance cycle reverses. We have an anticipated and happened case on SBI, one of the best performers of the Indian Early Economic sector. We started the trade on 16th May and it delivered 11.5% in 7 days. Prices have now hit our first target at 2,300 levels and we expect at least a subminor bounce from the respective supports. A break sub 2,300, however, would suggest that the leg down is extending lower till our next target near psychological 2,000. We compared the stock against its sector index, NSEBANK and the daily relative performance looks negative in favor of NSEBANK. The structure looks like a head and shoulders reversal which points lower towards further underperformance of SBI (slide 2). The Elliott structure of NSEBANK also looks negative as prices broke key supports at 10,800 and should head lower to psychological 10,000 (slide 3). The market bias remains negative as NIFTY turned back from our highlighted resistances at 5,500 levels. A break down at 5,400 till previous lows at 5,200 or even lower seems now imminent (slide 4). Enjoy the latest Alpha India Indices.



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