China's efforts to avoid a property bubble will be discomforting for real estate developers in 2010. Standard & Poor's Ratings Services' base-case scenario suggests prices could fall up to 10% from current levels in major cities over the next 12 months. That's largely due to uncertainty over the measures that the government may take to cool the market and the abundance of new properties for sale. But if the economy slows down significantly (we currently expect 10% GDP growth for 2010) and interest rates rise sharply, we estimate prices may even tumble 20%. We nevertheless believe developers are currently in a healthier position than in the downturn of 2008. Many have adequate liquidity and have already locked in the majority...
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Research Type: Commentary
Criteria articles describe the thought process and methodology Standard & Poor's analysts use in determining ratings. These commentary pieces discuss both the quantitative (economic and financial) and qualitative (business analysis and caliber of management) aspects of the analysis, as well as legal issues.
- China (People's Republic of )
- China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd.
- Hopson Development Holdings Ltd.
- SRE Group Ltd.
- Agile Property Holdings Ltd.
- Greentown China Holdings Ltd.
- Shimao Property Holdings Ltd.
- HKI Properties Ltd.
- Lai Fung Holdings Ltd.
- China Properties Group Ltd.
- Shanghai Zendai Property Ltd.
- Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd.
- Hong Long Holdings Ltd.
- Coastal Greenland Ltd.
- Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd.
- Yanlord Land Group Ltd.
- Glorious Property Holdings Ltd.
- Renhe Commercial Holdings Co. Ltd.
- Fantasia Holdings Group Co. Ltd.
- Central China Real Estate Ltd.