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Analysis and Forecast of Global and China’s MDI Market 2011-2013 - 3rd Edition
China Market Report, May 2011, Pages: 25
According to statistics, by 2010, the global total production of MDI was 5.68 million tons, and the yearly total demand was 4.64 million tons. The average utilization of capacity was 82%, compared with 2008 and 2009, had a significant rebound. According to the MDI investment plans of global leading manufacturers, by 2013, in addition to Yantai Wanhua, others don’t have any plans for increasing new production capacity; therefore, the supply will maintain relative stable.
During 2001-2010, the elasticity of MDI consumption growth and GDP growth was 2.4 in the world, we estimate that the GDP elasticity of MDI consumption growth in 2011-2012 will remain at 2. According to IMF projections that global GDP growth rates will be 4.4% -4.5% in 2011-2012. Therefore, we expect that the demand growth of MDI in 2011-2012 will be 8.9%-9%, therefore the industry operating rate will be between 87% and 89%. The increasing of operating rate shows that the global MDI market will be in a gradual improvement channel, meanwhile in consideration of the complexity of MDI production technology, the production lines can not maintain full capacity throughout the year, so the 85% operating rate in 2011 has already show that the MDI industry into a high economic stage, the prices of MDI products will remain at a high level.
In 2010, the consumption of Pure MDI in China was 410,000 tons, which consumed by PU slurry 42%, sole solution 28%, spandex 15%, elastomers 9% and others 7 %. Benefit from the rapid growth of PU leather and shoes (respectively 48% and 18%) in 2010, China's consumption of pure MDI also maintained a growth rate of 30%. With the growth of PU leather and shoes, the consumption of pure MDI will reach 517,000 tons, 610,000 tons and 700,000 tons respectively during 2011-2013.
In 2010, China's consumption of polymeric MDI was 740,000 tons, which consumed by refrigerator 40%, freezer 12%, construction sector 16% and others such as automotive interiors, water heaters and pipe insulation take a relatively small proportion. Benefit from the rapid growth of refrigerators and freezers (respectively 26% and 23%) in 2010, China's consumption of polymeric MDI also maintained a growth rate of 20%. According to the downstream consumption growth, It’s expected that the demand growth of polymeric MDI in the next few years will be 17%, 16% and 13% respectively.
In terms of the demand and imports, during 2011-2013, China’s MDI market will supply 1.21 million tons, 1.43 million tons and 1.64 tons respectively, the growth rate is relatively rapid.
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