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Global Dry Bulk Shipping Industry Report: 2011 Edition
Koncept Analytics, May 2011, Pages: 38
Economies of the various nations of the world, both developing and developed have grown manifold over the past few decades. One of the most important features of growth in world economies and globalization in recent years is the dry shipping market which constitutes the back bone of the international trade. Having shown a growth over the past several years with the exception of year 2009, the global seaborne dry bulk trade is expected to continue to grow at a CAGR of approximately 4.6% during the period spanning 2011 to 2013.
Iron ore constitutes the largest share in seaborne dry bulk trade, followed by coal, grain and other minor bulks. The global seaborne iron ore trade has shown constant growth in the past decade and the same is expected to continue in the years ahead due to expected growth in demand and production of steel in many major economies, mainly in China and Japan. Coal, used worldwide as a source of energy and steel production, is another important constituent of global seaborne dry bulk trade. The demand for coal, both thermal and coking coal, increased in 2010 in the light of growth in all major markets and the same is anticipated to continue to increase due to growing imports of thermal coal by China and rising demand for coking coal, particularly from Japan. The worldwide seaborne grain trade also increased in 2010 after registering a decline in 2009, on the back of economic recovery in the importing regions.
Of all the seaborne dry bulk trade, Asian nations are the largest consumers with China being the largest consumer of iron ore and Japan being the largest importer of thermal coal. The major exporters of dry bulk commodities are Australia, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, and North America. The total dry bulk fleet, which comprises our types of vessels: capesize, panamax, handymax, and handysize; is showing a steady growth on the back of increased new orders and reduced scrapping of dry bulk vessels.
The growing increase in industrial production in emerging and developing economies like China and South East Asian countries constitutes a major driving force and is expected to translate into continued increase in demand for dry bulk commodities in the following years. Another major factor of growth of seaborne dry bulk trade is rising steel production and growing demand for energy, necessitating increased trade of iron ore and coal. Rising world population and economic recovery in the importing regions will drive the demand and trade of grains, thus contributing in the overall growth of global seaborne dry bulk trade.
The global dry bulk shipping market is intensely competitive and fragmented with no single owner accounting for clear majority share. However, due to low entry barriers in the market, there stands a risk of increased competition by new entrants. The companies operating in the industry compete mainly on the basis of vessel capacity, fleet size, and price, among other such factors.
The report provides an analysis of the global seaborne dry bulk industry with a focus on major commodities like iron ore, coal and grain. It assesses the factors that are influencing the demand and supply of dry bulk vessels. It also presents a competitive landscape of the dry bulk shipping industry with a focus on leading carriers and their respective business strategies.
By combining SPSS Inc.'s data integration and analysis capabilities with our relevant findings, we have predicted the future growth of the industry. We employed various significant variables that have an impact on this industry and created regression models with SPSS Base to determine the future direction of the industry. Before deploying the regression model, the relationship between several independent or predictor variables and the dependent variable was analyzed using standard SPSS output, including charts, tables and tests.
1.2 Dry Bulk Vessel Types
2. Dry Bulk Shipping - Market Structure
2.1 Global Dry Bulk Shipping Market
2.2 Dry Bulk Commodities Market
2.2.1 Iron Ore
2.2.4 Minor Bulks
2.3 Major Dry Bulk Exporting and Importing Regions
2.3.3 Far East (Excluding China and Japan)
2.3.4 Western Europe
2.4 Dry Bulk Fleet
2.4.1 Age Profile
2.4.2 Fleet Growth
2.4.3 Segment Overview
Capesize Dry Bulk Carriers
Panamax Dry Bulk Carriers
Handymax Dry Bulk Carriers
Handysize Dry Bulk Carriers
3. Market Dynamics
3.1 Key Trends
3.1.1 Orderbook as a Percentage of Fleet is Shrinking
3.1.2 Scrapping Affected by Freight Market
3.2 Growth Drivers
3.2.1 Growth in Emerging Countries' Industrial Production
3.2.2 Rise in Global Steel Production
3.2.3 Increase in Global Demand for Grain and Steam Coal
3.2.4 World GDP Growth
4. Competitive Scenario of Dry Bulk Market
5. Company Profiles
5.1 Diana Shipping, Inc.
Expansion of Fleet
Maintaining a Strong Balance Sheet
5.2 Dry Ships, Inc.
Diversification of Business
5.3 Navios Maritime Holdings, Inc.
High Quality, Modern Fleet of Vessels
Creating a Balance Vessel Ownership
5.4 Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd.
Proper Management and Expansion of Fleet
Maintain Low Cost of Operations
6. Market Outlook
6.1 Market Forecast
6.2 Forecast Methodology
6.2.1 Dependent and Independent Variables
6.2.2 Correlation Analysis
6.2.3 Regression Analysis
List of Charts:
Main Segments of the Bulk Fleet
Global Seaborne Dry Bulk Trade Growth, 2001-2010
Global Seaborne Dry Bulk Trade Breakdown by Commodity, 2010
Growth in Seaborne Iron Ore Trade, 2001-2011E
Growth in Seaborne Coal Trade, 2001-2011E
Growth in Grain Trade, 2001-2011E
Growth in Minor Bulks' Trade, 2001-2011E
Breakdown of the World's Total Ocean Going Fleet by Capacity, 2010
Fleet Breakdown by Vessel Class by Capacity, 2010
Dry Bulk Fleet Age Profile, 2010
Total Fleet Growth by Segment, 2001-2012E
Order book to Fleet Ratio, 2009-2012E
Scrapping Vs Panamax Spot Charter Rates, 2001-2011E
Global Industrial Production Growth vs. Seaborne Dry Bulk Growth, 2005-2011E
Growth in World Steel Production, 2007-2012E
Growth in World GDP, 2004-2013E
Diana's Shipping Revenues by Business Segments, 2010
Diana Shipping's Revenues and Net Income, 2006-2010
Dry Ships, Inc.'s Revenues by Business Segments, 2010
Dry Ships, Inc.'s Revenues and Net Income, 2006-2010
Navios Holdings' Revenues by Business Segments, 2010
Navios Holding's Revenues and Net Income, 2006-2010
Genco's Revenues and Net Income, 2006-2010
Global Seaborne Dry Bulk Trade Forecast, 2009 – 2013F
List of Tables:
Seaborne Dry Bulk Importing Regions by Major Bulk, 2010
Seaborne Dry Bulk Exporting Regions by Major Bulk, 2010
China's Major Dry Bulk Imports, Q309 & Q310
Japan's Major Dry Bulk Imports, Q309 & Q310
Far East's Major Dry Bulk Imports, Q309 & Q310
Western Europe's Major Dry Bulk Imports, Q309 & Q310
Fleet Development for Capesize Dry Bulk Carriers, 2009-2012E
Fleet Development for Panamax Dry Bulk Carriers, 2009-2012E
Fleet Development for Handymax Dry Bulk Carriers, 2009-2012E
Fleet Development for Handysize Dry Bulk Carriers, 2009-2012E
Leading Dry Bulk Ship Owners, 2010
Dependent & Independent Variables (2004– 2010)
Model Summary – Coefficient of Determination
Regression Coefficients Output
- Diana Shipping, Inc.
- Dry Ships, Inc.
- Navios Maritime Holdings, Inc.
- Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd.