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Viewing report
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Alpha India Indices - Negative Bias for the Indian Market
Orpheus Capitals, May 2011, Pages: 8
Negative bias for the Indian market
Our negative market bias for the Indian market remains unchanged as NIFTY is retesting 5,500 resistances. We have several reasons to hold on to our preferred negative view: First, the price structure on NIFTY looks like an ongoing (W)-(X)-(Y) correction down. Prices seem to be in the third wave of the (Y) wave down which should at least retest previous lows at 5,200 levels. The daily RSI momentum is over reactive up, while the weekly RSI momentum broke 40 supports and confirms our view (slide 2). Sensex and BSE 500 show similar price and momentum structures (slides 5 and 6). Second, the Jiseki cycles made a negative crossover as prices completed the (X) wave up and point lower, while the larger grey cycle is down ever since the November 2010 negative reversal (slide 3). Third, XEN (Indian rupee index) broke intermediate trend channel supports and the structure points lower till previous lows at 217 levels (slide 4). A negative XEN suggests negativity for the overall market. Fourth, we carried the Jiseki ranking of the Indian indices and 13 out of 17 fall in the higher range of the rankings (above 50%), suggesting that most of the sectors are relatively outperforming and are potential underperformers for the next few weeks. We expect NIFTY to hold 5,500 resistances. Our minor targets lie at 5,200-5,000 levels or even lower at 4,800. Above 5,500 we review. Enjoy the latest Alpha India Indices.
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