Sovereign Upgrades to Exceed Downgrades in 2004 Jan 04

Standard & Poors, January 2004

Abstract
In 2004, Standard & Poor's expects that: Upgrades of sovereign credit ratings will exceed downgrades; Upgrades likely will be concentrated in EU and EU-accession countries; Downgrades likely will be concentrated in Latin America; The ratio of sovereign downgrades to upgrades will rise; Changes in sovereign ratings, except at the bottom of the scale, will be mostly by a single notch; Defaults rates will remain steady among speculative grade sovereign credits. These predictions are based upon the distribution of sovereign ratings with positive, stable, or negative outlooks; current rating criteria; and past patterns of rating changes. This commentary on sovereign rating prospects for 2004 is a companion article to "2003 Transition Data Update for Rated Sovereigns," and "Outlooks: The Sovereign Credit...

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Research Type: Commentary
Criteria articles describe the thought process and methodology Standard & Poor's analysts use in determining ratings. These commentary pieces discuss both the quantitative (economic and financial) and qualitative (business analysis and caliber of management) aspects of the analysis, as well as legal issues.

- Sweden (Kingdom of)
- Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela
- Spain (Kingdom of)
- Korea (Republic of)
- Brazil (Federative Republic of)
- Israel (State of)
- India (Republic of) (Unsolicited Ratings)
- China (People's Republic of )
- Argentina (Republic of) (Unsolicited Ratings)
- Uruguay (Oriental Republic of)
- Bank of China Ltd.
- Slovak Republic
- Poland (Republic of)
- Romania
- Slovenia (Republic of)
- Russian Federation
- Egypt (Arab republic of)
- Latvia (Republic of)
- Panama (Republic of)
- Dominican Republic
- Lebanon (Republic of)
- Costa Rica (Republic of)
- Lithuania (Republic of)
- China Construction Bank Corp.
- Estonia (Republic of)
- Bulgaria (Republic of)
- Bolivia (Plurinational State of)
- Suriname (The Republic of)
- Barbados
- Ecuador (Republic of)

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