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Poland Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, May 2011, Pages: 98
The Poland Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Poland's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
Poland’s pharmaceutical market offers good prospects over the medium term combining high single digit growth characteristic of an emerging market, with the stability of the European Union. Demand for both generic and patented medicines will continue to increase in line with expanded access to healthcare and epidemiological changes. The key downside risk is further pricing pressure from proposed changes to the country’s reimbursement regime. There is also a risk of economic contagion from Poland’s main trading partners should there be a Eurozone debt crisis, although this report considers this unlikely.
Headline Expenditure Projections:
- Pharmaceuticals: PLN31.09bn (US$10.34bn) in 2010 to PLN32.84bn (US$11.61bn) in 2011; +5.6% in local currency terms and +12.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast down slightly from Q211 due to macroeconomic factors.
- Healthcare: PLN87.93bn (US$29.23bn) in 2010 to PLN93.89bn (US$33.18bn) in 2011; +6.8% in local currency terms and +13.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast down slightly from Q211 due to macroeconomic factors.
- Medical devices: PLN7.53bn (US$2.50bn) in 2010 to PLN8.08bn (US$2.86bn) in 2011; +7.3% in local currency terms and +14.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast down slightly from Q211 due to macroeconomic factors.
Business Environment Rating:
Poland’s score remained unchanged at 64.0 out of 100 in Q311. However, an upgrade to the Czech Republic’s score meant that Poland slipped from first to second place in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) table for the quarter. Over the next five years, Poland is expected to continue to have one of the most attractive business environments in the region.
Key Trends & Developments:
The Sejm is currently forming a draft of the Drug Reimbursement Act, which is expected to be enacted in March 2011 and take effect from January 01 2012. If adopted, the new legislation could limit spending on reimbursed pharmaceuticals to a proportion of the healthcare budget.
Economic View:
As the only country in the EU to have avoided recession in 2009, Poland’s economic outlook is broadly positive with real GDP will expand by 4.6% in 2011. Expenditure on pharmaceuticals is expected to grow slightly slower as cost containment constrains public expenditure in the sector in light of a significant fiscal deficit (7.9% of GDP in 2010).
Political View:
Poland’s parliamentary elections are due by October at the latest. It is expected that Prime Minister Donald Tusk's Civic Platform (which rules in coalition with the Peasants' Party) will be comfortably re-elected, as the party benefits from a healthy economic growth outlook and an ineffectual opposition. Consequently this report foresees no major shift in political direction.
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