Uzbekistan Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, May 2011, Pages: 57
The Uzbekistan Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Uzbekistan's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
Uzbekistan is the most populous country in Central Asia and has a rapidly growing economy and a commitment to spend around US$1bn on its pharmaceutical industry over the next five years – including projects with foreign investors. Investment in the country represents a huge political risk, however, given its closed, highly authoritarian nature, lack of any real guarantees for investors and deep uncertainty regarding the country’s future when its ageing president leaves the scene. For companies willing to take the risk, however, the country’s market has huge growth potential for both generic and patented drugs.
Headline Expenditure Projections :
- Pharmaceuticals: UZS721.2bn (US$458mn) in 2010 to UZ853.5bn (US$508mn) in 2011; +18.4% in local currency terms and +10.9% in US dollar terms. Forecast up from Q111 due to macroeconomic factors and revised 2009 and 2010 data.
- Healthcare: UZS2,642bn (US$1.68bn) in 2010 to UZS3,133 (US$1.86bn) in 2011; +18.6% in local currency terms and +11.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast up from 2011 due to macroeconomic factors.
- Medical devices: UZS113.1bn (US$72mn) in 2010 to UZS113.3bn (US$79mn) in 2011; +17.9% in local currency terms and +10.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast up from 2011 due to macroeconomic factors.
Business Environment Rating:
Uzbekistan’s score has risen to 40.1 from 37.1 last quarter in view of the improved economic forecast for Uzbekistan. Nonetheless, the country remains at the bottom of the table in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region due its outsized political and linked industry risk factors. Uzbekistan badly trails other Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) members, especially neighbouring Kazakhstan.
Key Trends And Developments:
- According to media reports, Indian generic drugsmaker Sharon Bio-Medicine plans to build a US$37mn antibiotics plant in the Navoi Free Industrial and Economic Zone in the centre of Uzbekistan. Uzbek banks will provide loans for US$10mn of the project costs. Local media also reported that a Swiss company called Ival had started building a US$150mn insulin factory, although the company itself does not appear to have a website and does not appear to be related to Algerian generic drugs company Ival Pharma. If the project is completed as scheduled, it would substantially reduce import dependence for insulin.
- The Uzbek pharmaceutical industry will account for 50% of the domestic market (apparently in volume terms) by 2015, under a US$968mn programme launched by state-owned pharmaceutical holding and dominant manufacturing presence Uzpharmsanoat. The import Uzbekistan substitution effort is to focus on the production of cardiovascular, anaesthetic, oncological and anti-inflammatory drugs, as well as antibiotics and vaccines.
Economic View:
Economic growth continues to firm in Uzbekistan, with real GDP increasing by 8.5% in 2010. This report continues to see the external environment being key for Uzbekistan’s growth potential, particularly with exports of hydrocarbons and workers’ remittances expected to firm further in 2011. Growth is expected to hold steady over the next few years and the reports forecasts it to average 8.4% through to 2015, making Uzbekistan one of the fastest growing economies in the region.
Political View:
The move to empower the legislature in Uzbekistan does not represent any real step towards democracy and the report does not expect a concerted effort to be made to that end in the coming years. The move more likely reflects a growing uncertainty on the part of President Islam Karimov regarding the future stability of the country’s political situation. This report is sceptical that Uzbekistan’s steps to empower the legislature will bring any real moves towards democratisation in the short term. Like many other countries in Central Asia – Kazakhstan and Tajikistan are prime examples – Uzbekistan is ruled by an ageing leader with no perceivable succession plan. Karimov is 73 and has ruled over Uzbekistan since independence in 1991. For the time being, there is little credible opposition to Karimov as the administration has repeatedly suppressed any opposition movements.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Uzbekistan Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings
Table: Emerging Europe Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings, Q311
Rewards
Risks
Uzbekistan – Market Summary
Regulatory Regime
Counterfeit Drugs
Intellectual Property Rights
Pricing and Reimbursement
Industry Developments
Epidemiology
Healthcare Sector
Healthcare Sector Reforms
Pharmaceutical Industry
Pharmaceutical Sector Reforms
Pharmaceutical Industry Developments
Pharmaceutical Wholesale and Retail
Research & Development
International Cooperation
Medical Devices
Industry Forecast Scenario
Overall Market Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Market Indicators, 2007-2015
Key Growth Factors – Industry
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators, 2007-2015
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic
Table: Uzbekistan Economic Activity, 2006-2015
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, 2007-2015
Table: Top 10ATC Level 2 Codes In Uzbekistan By Sales, 2007-2008
Patented Drug Market Forecast
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, 2007-2015
Generic Drug Market Forecast
Table:Generics Drug Market Indicators, 2007-2015
OTC Drug Market Forecast
Table: OTC Medicine Market Indicators, 2007-2015
Pharmaceutical Export/Import Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Indicators , 2007-2015
Other Healthcare Data Forecasts
Key Risks to BMI’s Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
Table: Top 10 Drugmakers In Uzbekistan 2007-2008 By Sales
Table: Top 10 Trade Names In Uzbekistan 2007-2008 By Sales
Table: Top 10 INNs And Combinations In Uzbekistan 2007-2008 By Sales
Company Profiles
Indigenous Companies
Jurabek Laboratories
Uzpharmsanoat
Asklepiy Pharmaceutical Company
Pharmaceutical And Healthcare Glossary
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts
Pharmaceuticals Business Environment Ratings
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings System
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Components
Sources
- Jurabek Laboratories
- Uzpharmsanoat
- Asklepiy Pharmaceutical Company
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