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Hungary Telecommunications Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, May 2011, Pages: 94
The Hungary Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Hungary's telecommunications industry.
This quarter's update of the Hungarian telecoms market contains new operator data from Telenor and Deutsche Telekom-owned T-Mobile, covering the period to the end of Q111, and Vodafone for the period to Q410. As a result of updated data, this report contains updates to the forecasts for the mobile sector, as well as the fixed-line and broadband segments. The report also contains, for the first time, ARPU forecasts through to 2015 for all three operators.
Industry Developments:
In the last report, BMI noted that the biggest threat to the development of the telecoms sector came from the Hungarian government after Deutsche Telekom, along with 12 other companies, had filed a formal complaint to the European Commission (EC) in early January 2011 to investigate the crisis tax introduced in Hungary during October 2010.
This threat is subsiding as the government has stated the crisis tax will be abolished after 2012, and in the meantime this report observes that it has had minimal negative impact on operator investment plans in Hungary. That said, the mobile operators have been affected by the crisis tax with Magyar Telekom, as the incumbent and wealthiest operator, is expected to account for nearly half the additional HUF61bn between 2010 and 2012. Smaller firms such as the cable operator UPC, owned by Liberty Global, have also been hit by the tax.
Key Trends:
However, there are signs of improvements occurring in the mobile market. The mobile market recorded its second consecutive quarter of positive subscriber growth, the first time since H208. There were 156,000 net additions in Q410 resulting in a total of 11.327mn subscribers by December 2010. This compared to a net loss of 45,000 and 20,000 in Q210 and Q110 respectively.
While the earlier half of the year related to the removal of inactive subscribers, which continued to be the case for Telenor in Q310, T-Mobile and Vodafone noted increases in their customer bases in Q310, and all operators reported positive subscriber growth in Q410. Despite this return to growth, this report expects there to be further discounting of inactive subscribers in 2011, but not likely to the same extent as occurred in 2010.
BMI forecasts a deceleration in the rate of decline in the fixed-line voice sector, as intransigent fixed-line customers are hesitant to upgrade technologies. This report forecasts continued strong growth in the broadband sector, largely driven by mobile broadband subscriber growth as customers embrace the technology in response to large investments on the part of mobile network operators.
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