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Iran Defence and Security Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, June 2011, Pages: 77
The Iran Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Iran's defence and security industry.
Key Trends:
Indigenous Capacity
Iran's current defence minister Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi talked in regional media in April 2011 about how important upgrading the country's armed forces equipment is to the strategy of the defence ministry. The articles talk about how the country has become self-sufficient in various areas of military development and manufacture and about successful tests of new systems. The military manufacturing sector is centralised under the Defence Industries Organization (DIO) and the sector operates under severe international sanctions that greatly restrict both imports and exports. Reading between the lines, it is clear that some progress is being made by the indigenous defence sector but as for how much actual capability is being enhanced – it is difficult to tell.
Nuclear Energy
Security issues do surround the development of nuclear facilities. Iran has had the support of Russia in building and testing nuclear plants for many years. Both countries claim that the work going on is purely to provide alternative energy for domestic consumption. Although this may sound odd from a country knee-deep in oil, there are some valid reasons why Iran should look for other sources of energy – not least because it is financially dependent on the export of oil and so using less of it domestically provides more potential exports.
Pre-Emptive Measures?
Nuclear development puts the eyes of the world on the state. An important change in focus of the country's military focus and strategy has been caused by the potential for either Israel or the US to attack Iran's nuclear facilities for pre-emptive purposes. Although the report sees this as unlikely, it is by no means impossible to foresee. The US and the EU will continue to press forward with increasing economic sanctions and Iran will continue with its nuclear programme while seeking new economic and political allies.
Internal Opposition
Internally, Iran has some battles to fight too. The most effective armed opposition group is the People's Mujahedin of Iran, known as the Mojahedin Khalq Organisation (MKO). Based in Iraq, it has launched highly effective offensives across the border and, at its peak, numbered some 6,000-8,000 troops. However, Iraq has publically reported that the MKO cannot continue to base itself there and in early 2011, claimed back a large part of the land on which the group's base sat. There has been a distinct lack of recent activity from the group.
Imports & Exports
There is little to say about the importing and exporting of arms and equipment by Iran at the present time. Where small areas of trade do exist, such as with Russia, they are being condemned by much of the Western world to such an extent that even the Russians are buckling a little under international pressure to cease any military-type trade with Iran.
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