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South Africa Defence and Security Report Q3 2011

Business Monitor International, June 2011, Pages: 63

The South Africa Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on South Africa's defence and security industry.

Key Trends:

Advanced Defence Force
South Africa’s defence force remains the most advanced on the continent and operates with a consistent focus on training and redevelopment, despite budget constraints which limit its expansion. Involvement with neighbouring countries in joint security operations provides further scope for the country to maintain a strong power base. With a long-running domestic weaponry and equipment industry, the defence force is well equipped and able to participate in international trade.

International Requirements
South Africa has worked to meet requirements set by the UN, the EU and its own African Union regarding trade, anti-terrorism measures and security. The country is in an important strategic position due to its geographic location and its long established industries.

Corruption
Recent revelations of corruption and indiscreet dealings have caused strain between the South African government and both its people and international contacts. Support is dwindling fast for the current President Jacob Zuma. Demonstrations, sometimes violent, are erupting regularly over poor living conditions and a sense of being ignored by the governing party. The likelihood of Zuma being forced to step down as leader of the African National Congress is increasing. However, support for the African National Congress party remains strong.

The Economy & Democratic Stability
With a stable democracy in place and much party support for the ruling party, South Africa’s economy has a chance to strengthen and recover from its current fragile position. A series of strikes by key workers has forced the country to increase wages, despite recommendations to the contrary by a banking sector struggling to control inflation. However, commercial industries inside South Africa are long established which provides some stability despite employee strike action and underworld trading.

Challenges
High unemployment continues to trouble South Africa, coupled with a high rate of disease striking workers in their most productive and profitable years. Wages are low and living conditions very poor. On top of this, the country is working to overcome a vacuum of educated workers created by the apartheid years.

SWOT Analysis
South Africa Security SWOT
South Africa Defence Industry SWOT
South Africa Political SWOT
South Africa Economic SWOT
South Africa Business Environment SWOT

Global Political Outlook
Japan After The Quake
Global Hotspots: Libya, Iran, Afghanistan, Korea
Wild Cards To Watch

Security Risk Analysis
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings
Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
South Africa – Security Ratings
City Terrorism Rating
Table: BMI’s Africa City Terrorism Index

Political Overview
Domestic Politics
Long-Term Political Outlook
Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
Organised Crime
HIV/Aids
Latest Developments
Table: Insurgent Groups In South Africa
External Security
Border Security

Armed Forces And Government Spending
Armed Forces
New Role For The SANDF
Acquisitions
HIV/Aids
‘Army Vision 2020’
International Deployments
Table: South African Foreign Deployments
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
Arms Trade Overview

Industry Trends And Developments
Procurement Trends And Developments
Air Force
Navy
Army

Latest Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
Armed Forces
Table: South Africa’s Armed Forces, 2002-2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
Table: South Africa’s Available Manpower For Military Services, 2008-2015 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
Defence Expenditure
Table: South Africa’s Government Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015
Table: South Africa’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2008-2015 (US$mn)
Defence Trade
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario

Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: South Africa - Economic Activity, 2007-2015
Company Profiles
Aerosud
BAE Systems Land Systems South Africa
Denel
Grintek Defence & Technologies
Reutech
Thales South Africa (Pty) Ltd

Country Snapshot: South Africa Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012

Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
City Terrorism Rating
Table: Methodology
Sources

- Aerosud
- BAE Systems Land Systems South Africa
- Denel
- Grintek Defence & Technologies
- Reutech
- Thales South Africa (Pty) Ltd

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