Syria Defence and Security Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, June 2011, Pages: 65
The Syria Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Syria's defence and security industry.
Recent Developments:
Syria is in a delicate position in the Middle East, involved in countless disputes and largely unsupported by its neighbours. The authoritarian Assad rule has been threatened by recent protests similar to those spreading across the Middle East. Inspired by the toppling of two Arab leaders and the massive show of force with the military intervention in Libya, protesters seek to topple the iron fisted military rule of the Assad regime and replace it, with a democratic government.
Unfortunately, given Syria's political and geographic position along with strained western resources, it is unlikely that the West could intervene militarily. However Israel, Saudi Arabia and Iran all have vested interests and are likely to try to take advantage of any power vacuum to come about as a result of the demonstrations, possibly through covert or religious means.
The threat of intervention from any number of regional powers could destabilise the Middle East and any resulting conflict is likely to warrant western intervention. A weakened Assad-ruled Syria is more vulnerable to Israeli strikes or espionage, a Shiite revolution is likely to maintain Syria's close relationship with Iran and a more moderate Sunni-led Syrian government is likely to be highly unpopular. Assad's relatively strong grip on the nation is unlikely to be too shaken without more widespread demonstrations.
The US and the UN are well aware of the situation, with Obama imposing sanctions on three senior members of the Assad government. Senator John McCain has called for arrest warrants for all senior members of the regime and the UN is likely to impose strict economic penalties if the dispute deteriorates further.
Syria's military equipment is long outdated, having been sourced mostly from the Soviet Union. It is possible that military and economic ties to Iran may come into play to support the Assad regime's survival.
Syria's economy appears to be increasingly isolated, the only trading partners being Iran and North Korea. The nation suffers from water shortages and the economy is struggling to keep up with the growing population, with an estimated 25% unemployment. Syria's emphasis on infrastructure development is desirable but the business environment may make it impossible for the government to support. The continuing drought further shrinks the economy and none of this is helped by closed borders, widespread strikes and a general state of unrest. Syria's economy is very much frozen, at least until the political environment stabilises and some of the sanctions are lifted.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Syria Security SWOT
Syria Defence Industry SWOT
Syria Political SWOT
Syria Economic SWOT
Syria Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
Japan After The Quake
Global Hotspots: Libya, Iran, Afghanistan, Korea
Wild Cards To Watch
Middle East Security Overview
Political Risk Analysis – The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
The Middle East In A Global Context
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security
Regional Power Dynamics
Nuclear Proliferation
External Powers
Scenarios For The Middle East
Security Risk Analysis
BMI's Security Ratings
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings
Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
City Terrorism Rating
Table: BMI's Middle East And North Africa City Terrorism Index
Political Overview
Domestic Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
Latest Developments
External Security Situation
Armed Forces And Government Spending
Armed Forces
International Deployments
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Latest Developments
Market Overview
Imports
Exports
Procurement Trends And Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
Armed Forces
Table: Syria's Armed Forces, 2002-2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Syria's Available Manpower For Military Services, 2008-2015 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
Defence Expenditure
Table: Syrian Government Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015
Table: Syria's Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2008-2015 (US$mn)
Defence Trade
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Syria – Economic Activity, 2008-2015
Country Snapshot: Syria Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 1999-2003
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
City Terrorism Rating
Table: Methodology
Sources
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