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Syria Defence and Security Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, June 2011, Pages: 65
The Syria Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Syria's defence and security industry.
Recent Developments:
Syria is in a delicate position in the Middle East, involved in countless disputes and largely unsupported by its neighbours. The authoritarian Assad rule has been threatened by recent protests similar to those spreading across the Middle East. Inspired by the toppling of two Arab leaders and the massive show of force with the military intervention in Libya, protesters seek to topple the iron fisted military rule of the Assad regime and replace it, with a democratic government.
Unfortunately, given Syria's political and geographic position along with strained western resources, it is unlikely that the West could intervene militarily. However Israel, Saudi Arabia and Iran all have vested interests and are likely to try to take advantage of any power vacuum to come about as a result of the demonstrations, possibly through covert or religious means.
The threat of intervention from any number of regional powers could destabilise the Middle East and any resulting conflict is likely to warrant western intervention. A weakened Assad-ruled Syria is more vulnerable to Israeli strikes or espionage, a Shiite revolution is likely to maintain Syria's close relationship with Iran and a more moderate Sunni-led Syrian government is likely to be highly unpopular. Assad's relatively strong grip on the nation is unlikely to be too shaken without more widespread demonstrations.
The US and the UN are well aware of the situation, with Obama imposing sanctions on three senior members of the Assad government. Senator John McCain has called for arrest warrants for all senior members of the regime and the UN is likely to impose strict economic penalties if the dispute deteriorates further.
Syria's military equipment is long outdated, having been sourced mostly from the Soviet Union. It is possible that military and economic ties to Iran may come into play to support the Assad regime's survival.
Syria's economy appears to be increasingly isolated, the only trading partners being Iran and North Korea. The nation suffers from water shortages and the economy is struggling to keep up with the growing population, with an estimated 25% unemployment. Syria's emphasis on infrastructure development is desirable but the business environment may make it impossible for the government to support. The continuing drought further shrinks the economy and none of this is helped by closed borders, widespread strikes and a general state of unrest. Syria's economy is very much frozen, at least until the political environment stabilises and some of the sanctions are lifted.
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