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Poland Defence and Security Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, May 2011, Pages: 62
The Poland Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Poland's defence and security industry.
A tight government budget and pressure to modernise have strained the newly formed top-level administration of the Polish Military. Foreign operations are being cut back and overall staff numbers are decreasing. Internal financial shifts and political pressures have led to a somewhat chaotic quarter. A number of cooperation agreements, such as the ones with Bulgaria and Israel, along with additional US forces in the country have strengthened Poland’s security position in relation to its neighbours, however, much of its defensive development and militarisation of the north eastern border near Kaliningrad (such as the Patriot Missiles and rotations of F-16 fighters) have antagonised Russia.
The ethnic problems between Poland and Lithuania have not significantly changed over the last few quarters with tensions remaining high, we believe that this is likely to continue into the medium-term. The Ministry of Defence is cutting spending in foreign projects, cutting back involvement in UN operations such as Syria, Lebanon and Chad/Central African Republic with overseas deployment not exceeding 3,000 troops, this represents a significant decrease in global military involvement. Budget cutbacks and internal restructuring are taking place to facilitate the modernisation of Polish military equipment.
Poland posted an impressive year of economic growth in 2010, with the Central Statistical Office (CSO)’s preliminary 3.8% GDP growth reading building on the 1.7% expansion seen in 2009 – when Poland was the only country in the EU to avoid recession. We see that the Polish economy continuing to gain momentum in the months ahead, spurred by a favourable external environment and a pickup in fixed capital investment as higher economic output leads to spare capacity erosion. We forecast 2011 growth at an impressive 4.6%.
Poland will hold parliamentary elections later in 2011. We expect Prime Minister’s Donald Tusk’s civic Platform (which rules in coalition with the Peasant’s Party) to be comfortably re-elected, as the party benefits from a healthy economic growth outlook and an ineffectual opposition. With Poland having averted recession in 2009 and on track for robust growth in 2011, it is understandable that support for the Civic Platform remains firm.
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