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United Arab Emirates Defence and Security Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, June 2011, Pages: 78
The United Arab Emirates Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on United Arab Emirates's defence and security industry.
Regardless of the looming clouds on the horizon stemming from the political crisis in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), the outlook for the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has gradually brightened since the start of 2011. As one of only a handful of countries that have not seen large-scale public demonstrations as a result of the regional upheaval, perceptions surrounding underlying economic and political stability in the UAE have been given a considerable boost in recent months. In addition to its higher living standards compared to other countries across the region, a demographic profile heavily skewed towards expatriate labour underpins this report’s view that the risks of public demonstrations or protest activity similar to that seen elsewhere in MENA is unlikely in the near term.
With respect to instability in the MENA region, it is significant that in March 2011, the UAE deployed 12 fighter jets to Decimomannu, Italy. While not a member of NATO, the UAE sent the planes to enforce an UN Security Council Sanctioned no-fly zone on Libya. According to a report by AFP, in late April one of the F-16s crashed upon landing in Italy, with the pilot ejecting safely.
In external troop movements, April 2011 saw the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) chairman General Han Min-koo visit 130 South Korean troops stationed in the UAE. The Korea Herald reports that it was the first official visit of a JCS chief to the UAE. The unit, deployed in January 2011, is helping to train local special warfare troops and follows a request made by the UAE in August 2010.
On the procurement front the report notes that according to the Military Balance, in late 2010, the country requested 30 Block III Apaches and 30 AH-64D Block II lot 10 Apaches, remanufactured to Block III configuration, from the United States. The publication also notes that four of the six C-17 aircraft the UAE recently procured from Boeing are due for delivery in 2011.
The report’s analysis of the country’s macroeconomic conditions intimates that significant challenges await over the coming quarters, most notably Dubai's lingering debt repayment schedule. Despite these longer-term issues, however, the analysis is increasingly confident about the economy's growth potential this year. The forecast for real GDP growth in 2011 has been revised to 3.3% from 3.0%
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