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An Analysis of Future 3G Market in India
Frost & Sullivan, March 2011, Pages: 96
This research study focuses on the 3G market in India. It covers the market estimates with respect to 3G subscriber base and revenue forecasts. It also discusses the 3G and BWA auction results in detail. The 3G Auction results operator wise are elaborated and their strategic roadmaps are discussed. An analysis of the Political, Economic, Social, Regulatory, and Technology Factors have been done with respect to the future potential of 3G in India. The drivers, restraints and challenges of the 3G market going forward are also dealt with. International Case studies are also discussed. A Scenario Analysis is also done with respect to 3G deployment.
Market Overview:
3G Technology Poised to Transform the Mobile Ecosystem in India
The 2G market in India is one of the fastest-growing mobile services markets in the world in terms of subscriber growth. India reached the next stage in its progress towards advanced telecommunications technologies with the completion of the 3G spectrum auctions in May 2010, after more than a year of delay. The eventful 38-day long auction ended with the Government of India (GOI) earning INR 67,719.0 crores instead of the expected INR 35,000 crores. Out of the nine bidders, six private companies have won the 22 different circles.
With no private company winning a PAN-India license, the market is potential will be determined by the strategies likely to be adopted by the telecom service providers (TSPs).
3G services are likely to be launched primarily in the urban regions, where consumers have shown a higher preference for data services and have better affordability,” notes the analyst of this research service. “Recently, the prices of the 3G-enabled handsets have started declining, and this is expected to accelerate 3G adoption in the Indian market.”
The tariff levels in India are among the lowest in the world, and this is the primary reason for the wide adoption of mobile services in the country. The mobile penetration rate is expected to reach 97 percent by 2015, with the rural population expected to adopt mobile services.
Innovative 3G applications and services targeted at different customer segments are expected to drive the revenues of the TSPs from 3G services. Elite subscribers in the high-spending tech-savvy segment are likely to shift from 2G to 3G services and drive a higher growth with uptake of data-intensive applications. The growing popularity of mobile entertainment is a significant growth factor as access to mobile games and video-based content would need high speed. This would result in increased adoption of 3G services.
Building Awareness Vital for Deeper Market Penetration of the Technology
The average revenue per user (ARPU) for 3G services will be low in the initial stage. Most of the operators will be using the 3G spectrum for voice services as they are currently facing a severe spectrum crunch. A majority of the existing 2G subscribers are not aware about the benefits of 3G; hence, there would be lower adoption rates initially. “Security concerns raised by the Government on the telecom equipment imported into India have affected TSPs' network expansion and 3G rollout plans,” says the analyst. “However, the recent lift of the ban on importing equipment from Chinese vendors is likely to improve this situation.”
On the radar of telecom companies, rural India features strongly as the future growth market due to saturation in the urban markets. Financial inclusion and Internet adoption would be an opportunity for rural penetration.
Success of 3G in India depends on factors such as availability of 3G handsets at affordable prices, attractive pricing schemes to suit the needs of Indian consumers, and innovation and localization of mobile content. Telecom service providers would need to deploy innovative 3G applications and build a comprehensive value proposition to target consumers.
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