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BWA Business Case for India Report: Analysis of Potential 4G Services and Revenue Upside - Updated to June 2012

  • ID: 1833067
  • Report
  • June 2012
  • Region: India
  • 70 Pages
  • GrowthPraxis
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"BWA Business Case for India Report: Analysis of Potential 4G Services and Revenue Upside" includes the potential BWA landscape of India along with analysis of various B2G, B2B & B2C services that can be enabled by the technology, revenue potential of each of the service, device readiness and price points, estimates of potential Capex investments for pan-India Greenfield network rollouts, breakeven periods and analysis of various Business and Go-To-Market strategy options for each of the BWA operators including RIL, Airtel, Aircel, Tikona, Qualcomm, etc.

While the 3G network and service rollouts are already underway in India, there are a set of players strenuously working on launching BWA services in India. Knowledgefaber believes that TD-LTE enabled BWA networks and services will be launched in the second quarter of 2012.

Globally, wireless broadband services using WiMAX technology have been launched as early as in 2006. However, lack of strong roadmap, economic recession and LTE readiness has adversely affected the growth of WiMAX technology around the world. Players such as Clearwire (US) and Yota Networks (Russia), who have successfully launched multiple consumer services using WiMAX resulting in significant uptake, have announced their migration to LTE. Many global operators have announced their launch or migration to LTE.

Knowledgefaber's research shows that the Indian players will also use LTE technology for rolling out BWA services. The auction of 20MHz block of contiguous, unpaired spectrum has made TD-LTE a very compelling choice for the Indian players. India could potentially be one of the first markets in the world (along with Australia and China) to launch TD-LTE enabled services. While Reliance-Infotel (company formed post Reliance Industries acquisition of Infotel Broadband Services Pvt. Ltd.) is the only private player to acquire pan-India BWA spectrum. Other players such as Airtel and Aircel have acquired spectrum in select circles either to complement their 3G network circles or build on their market leadership. As per Knowledgefaber estimates, the Capex investments for Greenfield rollouts of TD-LTE network will be in the range of US $3bn to $3.5bn.

There are number of Government (B2G), Enterprise (B2B) and Consumer (B2C) services that can be enabled by BWA in India. Of the thirteen different services that Knowledgefaber has analyzed, projected uptake and revenues for; Geo-Spatial and Video Surveillance service in B2G, Tele-Education in B2B and Mobile Wireless Broadband (through data cards) in B2C segments have the maximum RoI potential. These three services together could potentially contribute to a revenue ranging from US $737mn to over US $1.05bn by FY'13 (assuming BWA commercial launch in Q2, 2012 and depending on subsidized data cards offerings by BWA carriers).

Knowledgefaber believes that TD-LTE enabled handheld-based consumer services such as Mobile Internet and Video based services will witness slow adoption, primarily due to limited handheld devices availability and uptake. Some players can also potentially look at partnering with existing mobile operators to offer “data offload” services on their BWA networks.

As for the TD-LTE devices availability, Knowledgefaber believes that Data Cards, Mi-Fis, Tablets and Embedded Laptops would be prioritized, and given the potential scale in India, the price points of these devices at launch would be significantly lower than the current global prices. Knowledgefaber has analyzed and built a case for potential price reduction of chipsets and devices in this report.

In this report, Knowledgefaber has also analyzed various Business and Go-To-Market strategy options including technology of choice, services rollout strategy, device bundling and service integration strategy, key partnerships, etc., for different BWA players in India, along with key recommendations for various players across the value chain.
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1. Overview of Global BWA Rollouts
i. Analysis of various global WiMAX & LTE rollouts

2. Overview of Current BWA Scenario in India
i. Overview of BWA spectrum auction and winners
ii. Analysis of BWA spectrum bidding strategies of various players
iii. Analysis of technology of choice for BWA rollouts by player

3. Analysis of potential BWA service offerings in India – Projections for Revenue and Subscriber Uptake
i. Common Services Centers (e-Governance project of govt. of India) – Potential BWA enablement
ii. Geo-Spatial Project & Video Surveillance - Potential BWA enablement
iii. State Wide Area Network (SWAN) Project - Potential BWA enablement
iv. Potential BWA enabled growth of Tele-Education
v. Potential BWA enabled growth of Tele-Medicine
vi. Automated Meter Reading - Potential BWA enablement
vii. Telematics and Telemetry - Potential BWA enablement
viii. Potential growth of fixed broadband driven by BWA
ix. Potential growth of mobile broadband driven by BWA
x. Potential growth of mobile internet driven by BWA
xi. Potential growth of mobile video based services driven by BWA
xii. Potential growth of location based services driven by BWA
xiii. Potential growth of mobile gaming driven by BWA

4. Analysis of potential TD-LTE device rollout in India
i. Overview of LTE devices available globally
ii. Key economics of chipset and device development
iii. TD-LTE devices roadmap for India
iv. Potential device bundling strategy

5. Overview of key challenges for BWA growth in India

6. Analysis of potential rollout strategies and opportunity assessment for Indian BWA players
i. Reliance-Infotel (including potential Capex investments and breakeven scenarios)
ii. Airtel
iii. Aircel
iv. Qualcomm
v. Tikona
vi. Augere
vii. BSNL & MTNL

7. Strategic recommendations for players across the value chain

List of Charts & Graphs

1. Total Number of Global WiMAX & LTE Deployments by Region
2. Share of WiMAX Deployments by Frequency (Worldwide)
3. Share of LTE Deployments by Frequency (Worldwide)
4. Projections for Total Number of Mobile WiMAX Subscribers by Region (2010 to 2015)
5. Projections for Total Number of Mobile LTE Subscribers by Region (2010 to 2015)
6. Estimated Capex Investments for Greenfield Rollout Pan-India of TD-LTE Network (USD mn)
7. Share of Capex by Network Element
8. Potential BWA Revenue from Geo-Spatial and Video Surveillance Projects (FY'13 to FY'16, USD mn)
9. Potential BWA Revenue from CSC (e-Governance) Project (FY'13 to FY'16, USD mn)
10. Potential BWA Revenue from SWAN Project (FY'13 to FY'16, USD mn)
11. Potential BWA Revenue from Automated Meter Reading
12. Potential BWA Revenue from Telematics & Telemetry (FY'13 to FY'16, USD mn)
13. Potential BWA Revenue from Tele-Education Market in India (FY'13 to FY'16, USD mn)
14. Potential BWA Revenue from Tele-Medicine Market in India (FY'13 to FY'16, USD mn)
15. BWA Enabled Fixed Broadband Market in India (FY'13 to FY'16, USD mn)
16. BWA Enabled Mobile Broadband (through Data Cards) Market in India (FY'13 to FY'16, USD mn)
17. BWA Enabled Mobile Internet Market in India (FY'13 to FY'16, USD mn)
18. BWA Enabled Video Based Services Market in India (FY'13 to FY'16, USD mn)
19. BWA Enabled Location Based Services Market in India (FY'13 to FY'16, USD mn)
20. BWA Enabled Mobile Gaming Market in India (FY'13 to FY'16, USD mn)
21. Various Breakeven Period Scenarios for Reliance-Infotel
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- Reliance-Infotel
- Airtel
- Aircel
- Qualcomm
- Tikona
- Augere
- BSNL
- MTNL
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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