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Colombia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, June 2011, Pages: 94
The Colombia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Colombia's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
The Analysts View:
The Colombian healthcare sector's high growth forecast is driven by strong demographics, increased healthcare needs, longer life expectancy and improved access to health facilities. Increased healthcare spending in the public (as governments increase the proportion of fiscal expenditure devoted to healthcare) and private (as economies grow and per-capita wealth increases) sectors, as well as a growing awareness of preventative healthcare and the increasing burden of non-communicable disease, will drive growth. This, combined with historical underinvestment in the region, will provide significant opportunities to drug companies looking to invest in the sector.
Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: COP6,525bn (US$3.44bn) in 2010 to COP7,057bn (US$3.85bn) in 2011; +8.2% growth in local currency terms and +11.9% in US dollar terms. Our forecast has been revised up moderately from Q111 due to macroeconomic factors.
- Healthcare: COP29,437bn (US$15.53bn) in 2010 to COP30,814bn (US$16.82bn) in 2011; 4.7% growth in local currency terms and 8.3% in US dollar terms. Our forecast has been revised up moderately from Q111 due to macroeconomic factors.
- Medical devices: COP1,667bn (US$880mn) in 2010 to COP1,860bn (US$1.02bn) in 2011; 11.5% growth in local currency terms and 15.4% in US dollar terms. Our forecast has been revised up moderately from Q111 due to macroeconomic factors.
Business Environment Rating: In the Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Business Environment Ratings (BERs) for the expanding Americas matrix in Q311, Colombia maintained its score of 56.2, occupying seventh position. The country’s population (expected to reach almost 50mn by the end of the decade), combined with rising per-capita consumption, will provide opportunities for expansion in the sector.
However, the persistent shortcomings of the intellectual property (IP), pricing and reimbursement regimes continue to hamper the more direct involvement of foreign companies.
Key Trends & Developments
- In April 2011, it was revealed that an audit conducted by government health agency SuperSalud found numerous irregularities in the provision of medication and mismanagement of funds by Colombian health insurance companies.
The Analysts Economic View:
They expect Colombia's ongoing economic expansion to accelerate over the medium term, with real GDP growth coming in at 4.7% in 2011 to 4.9% in 2012, up from an estimated 3.8% in 2010. Fixed investment will initially be the main driver of this growth, but we expect private consumption to take the reins by 2013 as the recovery in credit growth continues apace.
The Analysts Political View:
They believe that the recent spate of mutual cooperation between Colombia, Venezuela and Ecuador represents a significant shift in Colombian foreign policy towards a more regionally-focused outlook. The extradition of alleged key Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) operative Joaquin Pérez Becerra, alias Alberto Martínez, from Venezuela to Colombia, and of drug trafficker and an alleged leader of the criminal gang ‘La Cordillera’, Jhon Jairo Vasco López, from Ecuador to Colombia, reaffirms our long-held view that relations between these countries are improving after several years of diplomatic spats.
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