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Portugal Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, June 2011, Pages: 75
The Portugal Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Portugal's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
The Analysts View: Portugal is typical of many Western European markets. It is mature, with little scope for growth and is subject to downward pressures on pricing and the demands of an aging population. Portugal’s economic rescue package, announced in May 2011, will put the pharmaceutical industry under increasing pressure, limiting the options for growth. The Analysts believes opportunities still exist, however, primarily in the low-cost generic drug segment, and the self-medication market.
Headline Expenditure Projections:
- Pharmaceuticals: EUR3.59bn (US$4.77bn) in 2010 to EUR3.46bn (US$4.95bn) in 2011; -3.7% in local currency and +3.8 in US dollar terms. Forecast lowered from Q211 because of macroeconomic factors.
- Healthcare: EUR17.79bn (US$23.60bn) in 2010 to EUR17.39bn (US$23.87bn) in 2011; -2.2% in local currency and +5.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast lowered from Q211 because of macroeconomic factors.
- Medical Devices: EUR780mn (US$1.04bn) in 2010 to EUR806mn (US$1.15n) in 2011; +3.3% in local currency and +11.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast lowered from Q211 because of macroeconomic factors. Business Environment Rating: Portugal’s score of 58.8 in Q311 places it at the bottom of the rankings for Western Europe, a position it also occupied in Q211. A series of price cuts in 2010 – which are continuing in 2011 – plus economic and political uncertainty are key factors affecting its score.
Key Trends & Developments:
- Government proposals to oblige physicians to prescribe by active ingredient rather than drug name were overturned by the President in February 2011, a move that surprised many.
- Drug prices were reduced by 5% on average in April 2011; generic drug manufacturers expect to see a total of four drug price cuts during 2011.
- Merck & Co announced it would be cutting 30 jobs in Portugal between April and May 2011, a move it claims is linked to government politics.
The Analysts Economic View: On May 3 2011, Portugal’s government announced that it had negotiated a EUR78bn (US$116bn) economic rescue package with the EU and the IMF. The terms of the three-year deal will see Portugal cut its budget deficit from 9.1% of GDP in 2010 to 5.9% in 2011, and while the details of the package had not been published at the time of writing, it is clear that the bailout will impact all aspects of Portugal’s economy – meaning healthcare is not likely to escape cuts.
The Analysts Political View: A degree of political uncertainty reigns in Portugal. Prime Minister José Socrates resigned in March 2011 following his failure to achieve parliamentary support for his party’s proposed austerity measures. Portugal will have general elections on 5 June 2011.
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