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Practical Schedule Risk Analysis and Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis
Ashgate Publishing, July 2011, Pages: 480
This two volume collection of David Hulett's 'Practical Schedule Risk Analysis and Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis' provides a rigorous and detailed guide for the project risk specialist to two of the three key elements of the project triangle: time and cost.
Project managers tend to believe their estimates - whether they have exceeded budgets or run overtime in the past or not. Project risks come from multiple sources including uncertain project duration, which is often ignored in cost risk analyses. In short, experience shows that cost and schedule estimating on projects is rarely successful - cost overruns routinely occur.
'Practical Schedule Risk Analysis' contains a complete treatment of schedule risk analysis from basic to advanced concepts. 'Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis' focuses on the way that schedule risk can generate cost risk, and how to handle this relationship. It also applies the Risk Driver Method to the analysis so that you can clearly and transparently identify the key risks, rather than just the most risky cost line items.
With detailed worked examples and copious illustrations, this two-volume set offers the definitive guide to these critically important aspects of project management from surely the world's leading commentator.
Reviews:
“'This well document and extensively illustrated text that takes novice and expert alike on a journey of discovering how to handle risk and uncertainty when they apply to project activity durations … By having each math exercise direct apply to examples of schedule management, we arrive at the added business value of increased certainty for project duration almost before we realize that it was those simulated 5,000 random iterations that got us there… Dealing with schedule risk requires serious attention. This serious volume addresses the subject in an intelligent and instructive manner.”
- Cost Engineering, Journal of the AACE
“The book being organized in eleven chapters give it a broad and in-depth coverage of the subject matter...there are no new terminologies that could complicate or misrepresent applications...The book seeks to encourage and promote the need for project schedulers and project managers to develop practical as well as thorough competencies...Another impressive perspective is the inclusion of a novel way to take account of risks in schedule risk analysis models called 'Risk Driver' method being a powerful way mapping risks to activities...The book provides an interesting read.”
- PM World Today
“Hulett's latest book … describes how one can (and really should) develop risk models that consider both cost and schedule and, more importantly, the interaction between the two. It is to be hoped that Hulett's approach will be adopted, no doubt adapted to suit each individual practitioner, to produce more realistic (let us not say 'accurate') projections of project outcomes - to set more achievable targets and to point towards more effective risk mitigation actions.”
- Philip Rawlings, Director, Euro Log Ltd
“Why then do so many of us ignore this monumental testament to the success of statistics, modeling and simulation? I ask this because in this book David gives us an effective approach and all the tools we need to improve our cost and schedule estimates, which will increase the chance for success in our projects. Once armed with the tools and techniques necessary we can all improve. We can never know the 'unknowable' … the future will always be uncertain, but we can surely decrease the cone of uncertainty to a manageable level.”
- Charles Bosler, Chairman of the Risk Management SIG and President of RiskTrak International
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Also available
Practical Schedule Risk Analysis
Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis
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