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France Petrochemicals Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, June 2011, Pages: 45
Business Monitor International's France Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, petrochemical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on France's petrochemicals industry.
BMI’s latest France Petrochemicals Report states that exports will feature more strongly in France’s chemicals growth outlook in 2011, although European demand – which accounted for two-thirds of trade in 2010 – will lag behind.
The Union des Industries Chimiques (UIC, Chemical Industries Union) reported growth in chemical output volumes at 10.8% in 2010, compared with the contraction of 9.4% in the previous year. A 5% rise in selling prices led to a 14% increase in turnover, to EUR77.1bn, compared with a decline of 18% in 2009. The rebound saw the rebuilding of inventories and growing market demand as the economy was back on track for growth. Emerging market growth coupled with the recovery in developed markets helped sustain growth in monomers and polymers. However, labour unrest and technical-related stoppages meant that supply was tight in some production lines. Trade accounted for just 20% of France’s chemical output growth, with exports and imports growing at a rate of 13% by volume. The industry will be looking further afield with Asia the most promising export destination, while North Africa and the Middle East will constitute a downside risk to output.
The French chemicals industry has consistently outperformed the European average, even during the recession, and will continue to do so in 2011, albeit at a lower growth rate of around 2.5%. Stalling consumer confidence and fiscal cuts will start to weigh on household spending, while unemployment is set to remain above pre-crisis levels, particularly among the under 25s.
Nevertheless, industry should be supportive of higher output, with the automotive industry set to grow. Despite sluggish growth domestically, it is unlikely that that French carmakers will shift much of their production overseas. Commitments given to the French government to retain production in the country – in return for timely aid during the global financial crisis, is likely to put brakes on company's plans to move production abroad. As such, BMI expects French auto production to maintain a steady growth rate of 1.7% y-o-y between 2012 and 2015, following a robust 15.8% y-o-y rise expected this year. The downside risk to this forecast however is the fact that carmakers will be more inclined to boost production overseas and gradually reduce production domestically once the state aid is repaid. Growth should still bolster PP output over the medium term. Meanwhile, the construction industry should make a solid turn around in 2011, helping to lift PVC consumption. Activity is set to grow 4.5% in 2011 and 2012, following declines of 4.4% and 4.0% in 2009 and 2010 respectively. This should return the market to normal.
France scores 71.7points in BMI’s petrochemicals ratings, down 0.2 points since the previous quarter. This puts it in second place in our Western European Petrochemicals Ratings, 8.1 points behind Germany and 0.7 points ahead of Belgium. France’s score has been undermined by poor long-term financial and external ratings as well as the effects of strike action on the market risk environment. The petrochemicals sector needs to overcome deterioration in external competitiveness and stagnation in domestic demand to hold on to the capacity it has and prevent closures. France’s score is in danger of being eroded by capacity shut-downs in coming years, although its situation is not unique in Western Europe.
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