|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
South Africa Telecommunications Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, June 2011, Pages: 128
The South Africa Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on South Africa's telecommunications industry.
In the Q311 report on South Africa's Telecommunications Market contains the latest growth forecast for the mobile, fixed-line and internet sectors, as well as analysis of market data published by the country's telecoms regulator ICASA, and major service providers including Telkom South Africa, Vodacom and MTN. The report growth forecasts for the fixed-line and internet sectors are unchanged this quarter because latest available data are in line with BMI's expectations. However, BMI has revised the mobile subscriber forecast, taking into account the better-than-expected subscriber growth in H210.
Subscriber growth in South Africa's mobile sector accelerated in the three months to December 2010. While Q310 saw the addition of more than 1.5mn mobile customers, more than 2.66mn new customers were added to the market in Q410. In the final quarter of 2010, mobile market leader Vodacom led the way in terms of net additions, with the operator reporting more than 1.4mn new customers on its network. Vodacom was closely followed by MTN, which reported a net customer increase of more than1mn in the three months to December. The two operators have attributed their impressive growth in H210 to value propositions introduced in the first half of 2010. New offers have helped the sector's leading operators attract customers following the impact of mandatory prepaid SIM registration on their customer bases. At the end of 2010, Vodacom and MTN together accounted for almost 85% of the South African mobile customer base.
The analysis of the South African mobile market is based on quarterly subscriber figures published by Vodacom and MTN as well as estimates for the number of customers served by Cell C, Virgin Mobile and 8ta. As BMI noted in a previous update, fixed-line incumbent operator Telkom launched its mobile operations 8ta in October 2010 and had signed up 186,033 new customers within the first month of operations. BMI estimates that, by the end of 2010, 8ta had around 210,000 mobile customers and a 0.4% share of the market. 8ta entered the market offering the lowest tariff, but this was soon matched by a prepaid tariff from Vodacom. Although BMI does not expect operators' promotional activities to result in a price war, the report expects the increased competition in the market to put downward pressure on basic tariffs sufficient to attract new mobile phone users from lower income brackets and rural areas.
This report now estimates that South Africa's mobile market had around 52mn customers at the end of December 2010, representing a penetration rate of 104.6%. The report's new five-year growth forecast envisages slightly stronger growth over the next five years, and BMI now anticipates the number of mobile phone users rising to 57.5mn by 2015. A significant share of the new growth within South Africa's mobile customer base over the next five years will be attributable to the country's expanding population.
This quarter sees the introduction of a mobile ARPU forecast for South Africa. The forecast is based on historical ARPU data published by the sector's two largest mobile operators, Vodacom and MTN, and is expressed in local currency, the South African rand. Examined as a market average, the mobile ARPU rate for South Africa increased by 11.2% in 2010 to reach ZAR158.5 (US$23.8); although both of South Africa's mobile operators contributed to the increase in blended ARPU, Vodacom experienced a stronger ARPU performance. The report's long-term prediction for South Africa's blended ARPU rates is one of gradual growth. However, this report predicts that the rate of decline will diminish in the latter years of the forecast. This quarter sees South Africa fall from third to fourth position in BMI's latest set of Business Environment Ratings for Sub-Saharan Africa. A stronger Country Risks score is counterbalanced by a weaker score in the Country Rewards category and by a slightly lower score in Industry Rewards category.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
|
|
|
|
