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India Tourism Report Q3 2011

Business Monitor International's India Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on India's tourism industry.

India Tourist Recovery Continues

In Q111 data released by the Indian Ministry of Tourism in April 2011 showed that the tourism industry continued to grow strongly in Q1 2011, building on the recovery experienced in the latter part of 2010. In the first three months of the year, arrivals reached 1.73mn, representing growth of 11.1% year-on-year (yo- y). February experienced a particularly high surge in arrivals, growing by an impressive 15.1% y-o-y to 692,000. The report believes this high level of arrivals was largely due to the beginning of the Cricket World Cup in February, accounting for a slight dip in arrivals growth in March, to 7.4% y-o-y.

The report expects this positive growth trend to continue in 2011, as the industry returns to pre-2008 levels. As such, the report anticipates arrivals to reach 6.04mn in 2011, up from 5.42mn in 2010, although the risks to this forecast are to the upside, should the ongoing global economic recovery continue at its current pace.

Focus on Maharashtra

Maharashtra is India’s most popular state in terms of visitor arrivals, reflecting its position as one of the most heavily populated regions in the country. It is located in west-central India, with a long coastline containing several major ports and also a variety of popular beach locations. Maharashtra is a popular centre for domestic tourism but the state is aiming to increase the number of foreign visitor arrivals. As arrivals began to pick up in 2010, the state set itself an ambitious target of boosting tourist arrivals by 60% by 2015.

Strikes Take Place At Air India

A strike began at national carrier Air India on April 27 2011, disrupting around three-quarters of its flights. The strike was led by approximately 800 workers from Indian Airlines, which was merged with Air India in 2007. The former Indian Airlines workers claim that they are paid less than their counterparts from Air India, owing to differences in the way their salaries are calculated, with Air India pilots having a larger fixed salary component and Indian Airlines employees more reliant on pro rata payments for flight hours worked. As many flights have been cut during the industry downturn, salaries have suffered accordingly. While the Delhi High Court ruled against the strike, ongoing industrial action disrupted a high number of flights, forcing the airline to lay on special services for key routes or to rescue stranded passengers.
Executive Summary

SWOT Analysis
India Tourism SWOT
India Political SWOT
India Economic SWOT
India Business Environment SWOT

Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Arrivals Data, 2007-2015
Table: Tourist Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2007-2015
Inbound Tourism
Table: Tourist Arrivals, 2007-2015
Outbound Tourism
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2007-2015

Market Overview – Travel
Commercial Airlines
Focus On Jet Airways
Focus On Kingfisher Airlines
Focus On Low-Cost Carriers
Table: Airlines’ Domestic Market Share, 2010
Improving Infrastructure
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q410-Q411 (US$/bbl)
Table: Oil Product Price Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 (US$/bbl)

Market Overview – Hospitality
Table: Hotels Data, 2007-2015 (‘000)
Accommodation Developments
Special Focus: 2010 Commonwealth Games
Special Focus: Medical Tourism
H1N1 And H5N1 Virus Updates

Business Environment Outlook
Table: Asia Pacific Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings

BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
India’s Security Rating
City Terrorism Ratings
Table: BMI’s Asia City Terrorism Index
South Asia Security Overview

Global Assumptions, Q311
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y)
Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average)
Developed States
Table: Developed States’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y)
Emerging Markets
Table: Emerging Markets’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y)
Consensus Forecasts
Table: Bloomberg Consensus GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2012 (% change y-o-y)

Company Profiles
Jet Airways
National Aviation Company of India (Air India)
Taj Hotels

BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Tourism Industry
Tourism Ratings – Methodology
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Components
City Terrorism Ratings
Table: City Terrorism Ratings Methodology
Companies Mentioned
- Jet Airways
- National Aviation Company of India (Air India)
- Taj Hotels
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