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Russia Tourism Report Q3 2011

Business Monitor International, June 2011, Pages: 68


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Business Monitor International's Russia Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Russia's tourism industry.

Tourism Overview

Preliminary national 2010 data on foreign visitors to Russia show modest recovery in arrivals of 4.4% year-on-year (y-o-y), after a slight fall earlier in the year (and a sharp annual fall in 2009). Key source markets outside the former Soviet Union, such as China and Germany, recorded moderate growth in arrivals y-o-y. Other key source markets, including Finland, Poland, the UK and the US, all recorded negative annual growth in arrivals.

Forecast Scenario

BMI continues to maintain a forecast of only modest growth in foreign visitor arrivals to Russia in 2011 (about 1% y-o-y), with growth edging up in 2012. In an important source market for tourists, the Eurozone, steady economic growth of 1.8% is forecast for 2011 (up marginally on estimated growth in 2010), with similar growth expected in 2012. The report believes that on balance the fundamentals for the Russian rouble remain appreciatory and the research looks for the unit to reach or get near to RUB32.50/basket in the coming months. However, the analysis believes that the case for rouble appreciation will become weaker in the second half of 2011. Medium-term appreciation of the rouble, though, will constrain tourism.

Moscow Domodedovo Airport

In 2010, total traffic rebounded significantly at Moscow Domodedovo Airport, with passenger numbers increasing by around 18% y-o-y to 22.3mn (after an 8% fall in 2009). Latest data for Q111 show traffic up 4.2% y-o-y, with international passenger numbers rising some 3%.

Aeroflot/Transaero

In the first two months of 2011, the number of passengers on the Russian national carrier Aeroflot increased strongly, by more than 18% y-o-y to almost 1.8mn passengers. Aeroflot and Boeing signed an agreement in March on the order of six Boeing 777-300ER aircraft (extended range) and two Boeing 777- 200ERs. Also in March, a code-share agreement between Aeroflot and Aerosvit, a Ukrainian carrier, came into effect on the following routes: Moscow-Kiev, Moscow-Dnepropetrovsk and Moscow- Simferopol. According to preliminary figures for FY10 (January-December), Russian airline Transaero recorded total revenue of RUB61.9bn (US$2.0bn), markedly above its target for the year and representing a 60% increase on FY09.

Moscow Airport Privatisations

The venture to privatise Moscow’s two state-owned airports – the Sheremetyevo and Vnukovo airports – is part of a wider privatisation drive initiated in early 2011. While the airports will remain under state control until further expansion has taken place – in order to increase the value and attractiveness of the assets – this report believes that this sale could become one of the most highly anticipated in the European airports sector in the coming years.

Accommodation Developments

In early 2011, Rezidor Hotel Group announced two new Park Inn by Radisson properties, as part of a strategic development agreement (signed in 2009) with St Petersburg-based hotel management company Regional Hotel Chain (RHC). The Park Inn Volgograd, in the port of Volgograd (in the south west), and the Park Inn Nizhny Novgorod (in central Russia), will both have 150 rooms and are expected to open in 2013. Rezidor Hotel Group is also expected to open a new hotel in Novosibirsk in the last quarter of 2014: the 150-room Park Inn Novosibirsk.


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