|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Egypt Defence and Security Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, May 2011, Pages: 71
Egypt is undergoing dramatic political change, with ex-President Mubarak being ousted by millions of protesters and replaced by a transitional military government: the ‘Supreme Military Council’. Preparations are being made for the move to democracy, with political parties being formed and the country’s constitution being rewritten. A presidential election is expected in late 2011, though timetables are still under discussion. Overall, Egypt is facing its most uncertain period since 1952, when military officers overthrew the monarchy and installed Gamal Abdel Nasser as the country’s dominant political figure.
Although Mubarak and his government have now resigned and the ousted president put under house arrest, his assets frozen pending investigation, the pro-democracy protests and strikes continue. Further protest activity should be expected over the coming months, although demonstrations will increasingly focus on economic, rather than political grievances. A constitutional committee was formed and is preparing a raft of amendments for referendum.
This report does not rule out the possibility that parliamentary and presidential elections are delayed beyond the six months tentatively set by the current transition government. Internal discussions over whether elections need to be postponed so as to allow political groups to organise continue as political parties scramble to prepare for what could be a short campaigning period. The Muslim Brotherhood is clearly the best organised political party and, due to its position on the constitutional committee, it will have a strong hand in shaping the future of Egyptian policy.
New Directions?
So far there has been little indication of which direction Egypt will take. A more liberal democracy is possible, but not guaranteed, a new flexible political system would also allow for extremist or moderate Islamic governments to emerge. Egypt’s strategic location between the Eastern Mediterranean, North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, Red Sea and Middle East, make it a pivotal state in regional and global geopolitics.
This strong regional position means any political shift will have dramatic consequences. A strong Muslim election result is likely to lead to closer ties with Iran and even renewed hostilities toward Israel. Egyptian backing would restore Palestine’s confidence in their disputes with the Jewish state, destabalising the region.
A more liberal-secular government is likely to maintain its treaties with Israel, preferring either Mubarak-style diplomatic neutrality or closer ties with the US and the west. The current transitional military government seems to be taking a more moderate approach to foreign policy, expressing desires to improve relations with Iran but also promising to maintain its current treaties (most notably, the peace treaty with Israel) and in a recent meeting with Palestinian officials: encouraging the revival of peace talks with Israel.
These are all plausible scenarios, but BMI believes that the most likely direction for the newly emerging Egypt to take would be to avoid a decisive break with the West and instead adopt a ‘multi-vector’ foreign policy that would distance it somewhat from the US and Israel, while pursuing warmer relations with Iran, Turkey, Russia and China.
Economic Effects
Waves of strikes have weakened the economy. So far government crackdowns on the unrest have been relatively unsuccessful despite the recent use of deadly force.
Regardless of which political parties form Egypt’s next government, post-elections, the military is likely to retain considerable behind-the-scenes influence, at least for a number of years, judging by the experience of other countries such as Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, Thailand and Turkey, which moved away from authoritarian rule following public protests. The Egyptian military also has considerable business interests, which it will seek to preserve for as long as possible.
Main Defense Spending & Procurement Trends
Thus far, the main trends in terms of defence spending and procurement remain intact. While the military is likely to remain a key player in whatever polity ultimately emerges in Egypt, it will have the ability, the willpower (and, perhaps, given multiple security threats, the need) for defence spending to remain high. BMI has already revised its forecast of economic growth for this year down to 3.2%. In the event that Egypt slips into recession, the defence spending ratio will likely increase. The long-standing and large scale procurement program (which is substantially, but not entirely, funded through the US’ Foreign Military Financing (FMF) program appears set to continue.
Big ticket purchases announced since the beginning of 2010 include 24 more F-16 aircraft and four fast patrol boats. As of April 2011, the governments of France and Germany had suspended sales of arms to Egypt in the wake of the recent unrest. However, the US and UK governments have not followed their lead.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
|
|
|
|
