|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Germany Autos Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, May 2011, Pages: 71
Strong consumer demand and improved business confidence have resulted in a better-than-expected recovery in German new vehicle sales during Q111. According to estimates from the German autos association VDA, passenger cars and commercial vehicle sales increased 14% year-on-year (y-o-y), to 763,600 units, and 30.9% y-o-y, to 76,426 units, respectively during the quarter.
In addition to the low base from 2010 – when the market shifted 21% fewer vehicles compared with 2009, BMI believes that the German economy is benefiting from falling unemployment and rising earnings. As such, this report has slightly revised up the sales growth forecast for 2011 from 6.5% expected earlier to just over 8% y-o-y.
From 2012, the report believes the higher base set in 2011 and Germany’s already high rate of car ownership (nearly 54%), will limit vehicle demand. Average demand growth should therefore slow to around 3.5% between 2012 and 2015, taking the market to 3.91mn sales by the end of the forecast period, up 22% on 2010.
However, a robust recovery has not prevented Germany from raising concerns about the impact of EU proposals calling for increase in taxes on high-energy fuels by 2013 on its car industry. The European auto association ACEA estimates that over half of all vehicles sold in the region use diesel – a trend which has favoured German premium vehicle manufacturers such as BMW and Daimler and Audi. Germany is concerned the regulation could speed the shift in consumer preference towards small cars – which generally run on gasoline – and alternative fuel cars and result in these firms losing their market share in Europe.
German luxury vehicle manufacturers, however, have begun thinking beyond the issue of recovering from the global financial crisis and are instead focused on tapping into growth opportunities overseas and addressing the pressing issue of growing consumer interest in alternative fuel vehicles. BMW itself is looking to get involved in a host of activities, ranging from the marketing of BMW's electric cars to the launch of driving information and other transport-related services, in a bid to stem its lead in the urban mobility segment for premium vehicles.
In regional standards, BMI asserts that the Germany autos industry is fairly well placed in terms of its competitiveness and continues to be a major attraction for foreign car-makers. The country occupies a coveted third position in BMI’s Risk-Reward Ratings for the autos industry in Europe. Although a more robust recovery in the Russian market has translated into Germany being overtaken by the former in the report ratings, this research believes the country will remain an attractive autos hub mostly on the back of its favourable and stable regulatory setup and the size of its domestic autos market.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
|
|
|
|
