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Canada Autos Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, June 2011, Pages: 36
Business Monitor International's Canada Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Canada's automotive industry.
Following a 2% rise in Canada's total vehicle sales in Q111, led largely by light trucks, a shift in consumer preference prompted by rising gas prices has altered the competitive landscape once again. As average gasoline prices in Canada rose 25% year-on-year (y-o-y) in April 2011, to CAD1.31 per litre, sales of compact and subcompact cars outperformed the overall market during the month. In contrast, the pick-up segment, which had been carrying total market sales earlier in the year, contracted 5%. This is a similar trend to that reported in the US, where small car sales have grown in line with rising gas prices. Although total vehicle sales in April were up 7% y-o-y, which is respectable growth in itself, the subcompact and compact segments grew by 17% and 11% respectively, according to data from DesRosiers Automotive Consultants.
Based on results for the year so far and potential supply issues for the country's best-selling car, we have revised downwards slightly our forecasts for sales and production. We now expect passenger car sales to end the year down by around 2%, until more is known about car supplies, while a correction in gas prices later in the year could easily result in another shift in consumer sentiment away from cars. This also follows BMI's view that private consumption will contribute less to economic growth in 2011 than in previous years. Conversely, our forecast for heavy truck sales remains positive and indeed relatively bullish at 11.5%, based on sales growth of 21% in Q1.
The recovery in vehicle production growth, which we expected from 2010 played out. We still believe this is sustainable through to the end of 2015 as investment projects come into play and labour agreements ensure that the Detroit Three keep an agreed proportion of North American output in Canada. However, we have lowered our light vehicle output growth forecast slightly to 8%, although our forecast for heavy truck production stays at 15% in line with sustained strong demand in Q111. Production for the Japanese brands, and particularly reduced output of the Civic will continue to pose a downside risk to light vehicle output until all companies are back at full swing.
The shift towards smaller passenger cars in April 2011, as well as supply issues for Japanese brands has also impacted the competitive landscape. A shortage of stock resulted in sales of the Honda Civic, the country's best-selling car, falling 1.5% in April, at a time when it should be cashing in on demand for compact sedans. As a result, Honda Canada's market share for the first four months of the year dropped slightly to 7.1% compared with 7.9% for the same period of 2010. In contrast, South Korean brands Hyundai Motor and Kia Motors, which have been largely unaffected by the Japanese earthquake thanks to their mostly Korean supplier base, have gained market share from the previous year.
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