|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Serbia Food and Drink Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, June 2011, Pages: 99
The Serbia Food and Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, food and drink associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Serbia's food and drink industry.
While large foreign retailers and manufacturers from further afield in Europe have been expressing interest in the Serbian market, high inflation rates and the weak dinar is hampering growth in food and drink, MGR values and company performance in the short term, with recovery dependent on wider economic conditions and an improvement in consumer confidence. Although the fundamental drivers of Serbia's economic recovery remain firmly in place with buoyant exports continuing to underpin growth in 2011, we caution that private consumption will likely remain the weak link in the country's economic recovery for the bulk of the year, as high inflation and a weak labour market undermines consumer spending.
Headline Industry Data (local currency):
- 2011 per capita food consumption: +2.56%; forecast to 2015: +8.57%
- 2011 alcoholic drinks sales: +2.29%; forecast to 2015: +7.44%
- 2011 soft drinks sales: +2.74%; forecast to 2015: +9.77%
- 2011 mass grocery retail sales: +4.1%; forecast to 2015: +19.35%
Key Company Trends:
Delhaize Moves into Serbia – Belgian MGR Delhaize is to buy Delta Maxi for EUR932.5mn. The acquisition sees Delhaize take control of around 450 stores in Serbia, Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Albania. The retailer has said that its operations in south-eastern Europe are expected to generate revenues totalling approximately EUR3.4bn in 2011. MGR penetration across the Balkans remains relatively weak, with strong multinational investment not as widespread as in Central Europe. Acquiring a major retailer such as Delta gives Delhaize pan-regional exposure, which will be particularly useful given that most of the region's markets remain relatively small.
Investment in Organic Foods – In early 2011, the Serbian agricultural ministry started a campaign aimed at promoting high quality food production and encouraging manufacturers to join the programme. The minister in charge stressed that there is the potential for some 600,000 hectares of land in Serbia to be used for organic foods, with emphasis being laid on organic production as the food of the future.
Key Risks to Outlook:
Inflation as the Main Risk – Inflation remains a core risk to Serbia's economic growth profile. Inflation continues to shoot higher, with the consumer price index (CPI) registering a rise of 14.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) in March 2011, up from the 12.6% gain seen in February, and is showing few signs of easing. We therefore see inflation continuing to be a concern in Serbia, and currently expect it to average 12.8% over the course of 2011 as international commodity prices remain elevated and planned regulated price hikes are introduced.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
|
|
|
|
