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Singapore Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, June 2011, Pages: 92
The Singapore Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Singapore's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
Analysts View: Singapore is a low-risk pharmaceutical market, propped up by pro-business policies, welldeveloped healthcare provision and high per-capita spending on medicines. However, due to its small size, commercial opportunities will remain limited in terms of their financial potential, although Singapore will still be of interest to foreign companies, partly given its strong regulatory environment, which has continued to stimulate interest in clinical trials and similar research activities.
Headline Expenditure Projections:
- Pharmaceuticals: SGD836mn (US$615mn) in 2010 to SGD869mn (US$690mn) in 2011; +3.9% in local currency terms and +12.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q211.
- Healthcare: SGD10.10bn (US$7.43bn) in 2010 to SGD10.80bn (US$8.57bn) in 2011; +6.9% in local currency terms and +15.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast up slightly from Q211 due to macroeconomic factors.
- Medical devices: SGD430mn (US$316mn) in 2010 to SGD450mn (US$357mn) in 2011; +4.6% in local currency terms and +12.9% in US dollar terms. Forecast up slightly from Q211 due to macroeconomic factors.
Business Environment Rating: Singapore’s score increased by 2.45% in relation to the previous quarter. At 62.7 presently, it ranks fourth of the 17 key markets surveyed by our proprietary Q311 Business Environment Rating (BER) matrix for the Asia Pacific region. Over the medium term, however, we expect Singapore to fall down the ratings, as emerging countries such as Vietnam and Indonesia become more alluring for foreign firms selling patented products.
Key Trends & Developments:
- Singapore's Health Ministry will include more drugs on its standard drug list, reports todayonline.com, citing Health Minister Khaw Boon Wan. Presently, the list comprises 1,000 drugs that are considered cost-effective and important to the provision of healthcare in the country. The ministry is in discussions with doctors over additions in the list's yearly review, which will be put forward to the country's Drug Advisory Committee.
- In April 2011, US technology firm IBM and Singapore's Institute of Bioengineering and Nanotechnology were reported to be developing nanostructures to treat antibiotic-resistant bacterial infections, including the 'super-bug' MRSA (methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus). The therapeutics evolved from chemicals used to create computer microchips and will be incorporated into consumer products such as deodorants, surface wipes and preservatives. To prevent damage to healthy cells in the body, the nanomedical polymers are biodegradable.
Economic View: We have revised up Singapore's real GDP forecast from 5.1% to 5.9% on the back of stronger-than-expected Q111 data. However, this pace of growth is unlikely to be sustained as we expect the regional monetary tightening to have an impact on external demand in the coming quarters and we also project a China-led slowdown in H211. Indeed, for 2011, we flag up persistently high oil prices and a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China in H211 as the two key risks to our sanguine outlook. This will also trickle down to translate into more cautious spending patterns regarding out-of-pocket healthcare and pharmaceutical expenditure, with non-prescription medicines expected to grow more slowly than their on-prescription counterparts.
Political View: Singapore's ruling People's Action Party (PAP) retained power in the general elections held on May 7 2011, indicating that pro-business economic policies will likely be continued, which the maturing opposition bodes well for democratic progress. Singapore will therefore remain an attractive base for multinationals and other players involved in the pharmaceutical and medical industries.
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