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Poland Retail Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, June 2011, Pages: 76
The Poland Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Poland's retail industry.
The Q311 Poland Retail report forecasts that the country’s total retail sales will increase by nearly 26% in local currency terms between 2011 and 2015, growing from a predicted PLN421.01bn (US$159.71bn) to PLN529.74bn (US$200.96bn). Rising disposable incomes, consumers seeking more choice, low prices offered by foreign and domestic chains and increased car ownership are key factors behind retail market expansion. EU membership since 2004 and increasing amounts of foreign direct investment (FDI) have allowed retailers to make significant inroads into the Polish market, contributing to forecast average annual retail sales growth of 6.2%.
Poland’s nominal GDP is predicted to be US$571.15bn in 2011, up from US$475.38bn in 2010. Average annual GDP growth of 4.2% is forecast by BMI between 2011 and 2015. Although the population is expected to decrease slightly, from 38.1mn in 2011 to 38.0mn by 2015, GDP per capita is forecast to rise by nearly 38% by 2015, reaching US$20,603.
With 38mn people, Poland is the biggest market among the new EU countries. The population is also one of the most youthful in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), with more than 38% of all citizens in 2010 in the 20-44 age group crucial for retail sales, according to the UN Population Division data.
In 2008, according to the Polish Central Statistical Office (GUS), the biggest increase in sales (38.7%) came from retailers selling clothes and footwear. Retailers selling furniture, radio and television equipment and household appliances recorded an increase of 28.8%. Other groups with high sales were books and stationery (20.9%), and pharmaceuticals, cosmetics and orthopaedic equipment (15.8%). The trend for increased spending on non-essential, non-food items is a reflection of the maturing of the Polish retail market as it begins to track Western European purchasing trends more closely. Teenagers and young adults in particular are driving fashion sales in Poland.
Retail sub-sectors that are likely to achieve steady growth over the period include automotives, with BMI forecasting that sales will rise from a predicted 450,851 units in 2011 to 639,935 units by 2015, an increase of nearly 42%, with Poland outperforming its EU peers.
Consumer electronic sales are forecast to rise by nearly 33%, from a predicted US$6.81bn in 2011 to US$9.05bn in 2015. The market offers continued growth potential due to relatively low penetration in product groups such as computers and digital cameras – at about 30% and 25% of the population respectively.
Over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales are expected to grow by 27.4%, from US$2.94bn in 2011 to US$3.74bn by 2015.
The food consumption data suggest that the food retail segment will have a market share of 36.7% in 2011. The sub-sector is forecast to be worth US$58.55bn in 2011, and sales are expected to grow by 58.4% to US$92.76bn by 2015. Our forecasts suggest an increase in the retail market share of food to 46.2% by 2015.
Mass grocery retail (MGR) sales are forecast to be US$27.13bn in 2011 and are expected to grow much faster than overall food sales throughout the forecast period, by nearly 87% to US$50.66bn by 2015. This would take MGR’s share of the overall food market from 46.3% in 2011 to 54.6% by the end of the forecast period. Poland is one of the key MGR markets in the CEE region. With disposable incomes rising, more Polish consumers are converting to modern retail formats.
Based on the varying national definitions, retail sales for the BMI universe of CEE countries in 2011 are forecast to amount to US$1,280bn. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMI’s macroeconomic database is expected to be US$2,206bn. Russia, Turkey and Poland are predicted to account for an estimated 79% of regional retail sales in 2011, a share that is likely to fall only slightly, to 78%, by 2015. Poland’s predicted 2011 market share of 12.5% is expected to increase to 12.7% by 2015.
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