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Slovenia Retail Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, June 2011, Pages: 51
The Slovenia Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Slovenia's retail industry.
The Q311 the Slovenia Retail report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will grow from a projected EUR16.83bn (US$24.74bn) in 2011 to EUR20.45bn (US$30.07bn) by 2015, an increase of nearly 22% in local currency terms. Rising levels of disposable income and the continued development of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind the forecast growth in Slovenian retail sales.
Slovenia’s nominal GDP is predicted to be US$51.91bn in 2011 with growth of 2.5% expected for the year, up from 0.9% in 2010. Average annual GDP growth of 2.9% is forecast by BMI between 2011 and 2015. With the population expected to remain static, at 2.1mn over the period, GDP per capita is forecast to rise from US$25,111 in 2011 to US$28,421 by 2015, an increase of 13.2%.
The size of the urban population in Slovenia is unusually small, which partly reflects the absence of large cities resulting from the mountainous terrain. Even in the capital city Ljubljana there are fewer than 300,000 residents. The average age in the country, at 41 years, is also high compared with other European countries. Both of these factors work against retailers. However, unemployment has been trending lower since 2010’s peak of 11.8%; it is forecast to drop to 9.0% in 2011, and to end the forecast period at 6.0%. In 2005, almost 71% of the Slovenian population was described by the UN as economically active, but with just 36.6% in the 20-44 age range. Just over half of the Slovenian population, 50.8%, was classified by the UN as urban. By 2015, the urban population is forecast to fall to 47.4%, with only 32.9% aged 20- 44. By this time, 68.4% of the population is expected to be economically active.
Using this food & drink data, we identify a food and drink market share in 2011 of 19.6% of total retail sales. This is forecast to decline to 15.9% by 2015 as the non-food sector matures.
Over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales are predicted to increase from US$0.10bn in 2011 to US$0.11bn by 2015, a rise of 10%. The relatively low cost of OTC medicines should be the key growth driver, as the sector increases its market share at the expense of the prescription drugs market. In the longer run, generational change and better visibility of OTC products will help the self-medication sector develop.
Retail sales for the BMI universe of Central and Eastern European countries in 2011 are forecast to amount to US$1,280bn based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMI’s macroeconomic database is expected to be US$2,206bn. Russia, Turkey and Poland are predicted to account for an estimated 79% of regional retail sales in 2011, a share that is likely to fall only slightly, to 78%, by 2015. Slovenia’s predicted 2011 market share of 1.9% is expected to remain static through to 2015.
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