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Turkey Retail Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International, June 2011, Pages: 59
The Turkey Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Turkey's retail industry.
The Q311 Turkey Retail Report predicts that the country’s retail sales will grow by nearly 13% by 2015, from TRY299.44bn (US$229.91bn) in 2011 to TRY337.69bn (US$259.28bn). Underlying economic growth; an expanding population, especially in urban areas; rising levels of disposable income; and the continued development of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind the forecast growth in Turkish retail sales, which should expand an average 3.2% per annum throughout the forecast period.
Turkey’s nominal GDP is predicted to be US$825.9bn in 2011 with growth of 4.3% expected, down substantially on 2010’s 7.9%. Average annual GDP growth of 4.9% is predicted by BMI between 2011 and 2015. With the population increasing from 76.6mn in 2011 to a forecast 79.9mn by 2015, GDP per capita is forecast to grow by 58% to US$17,076 by the end of the period.
Turkey has a large, growing and young population. Each year, 750,000 young people join the workforce and, with an increasing level of urbanisation, many are abandoning the agricultural sector in order to seek better paid work in other areas. Nevertheless, unemployment is a problem, reaching an estimated 11.0% in 2010. We forecast a drop to 10.0% in 2011, and to 6.5% by the end of the forecast period.
In 2005, 65.8% of the Turkish population was described by the UN as economically active, with 44.1% in the 20-44 age range, which is important for retail sales. Just over two-thirds of the population was classified by the UN as urban (67.3%). By 2015, the urban population is forecast to have reached almost 72%, with 43.2% in the 20-44 age band, and 69.1% of the population is expected to be active.
The food consumption data suggest that the food retail segment will have a market share of 21.6% in 2011. The sub-sector is forecast to be worth US$49.64bn in 2011, and sales are expected to grow by more than 60% to US$79.55bn by 2015. Our forecasts suggest an increase in the retail market share of food to 30.7% by 2015.
Mass grocery retail (MGR) sales are forecast to be US$18.92bn in 2011 and to grow much faster than overall food sales throughout the forecast period, by nearly 72%, to US$32.52bn by 2015. Turkey’s MGR sector is far from saturated, with room remaining in urban centres and secondary cities, as demand from a young, growing and increasingly affluent population increases. BMI forecasts that MGR’s share of the overall food market will rise from 38.1% in 2011 to 40.9% by the end of the review period.
Automotive sales are forecast to rise by more than 35%, from 682,143 units in 2011 to 920,938 units by 2015. At BMI, we stand by our view that robust domestic demand in Turkey will make its auto market a significant performer in Europe during the remainder of our forecast period.
Sales of consumer electronics products are expected to increase by 57%, from US$8.23bn in 2011 to US$12.94bn by the end of the forecast period. Consumer electronics spend per capita is projected to grow by nearly 50% to US$145 towards the end of the period, on the back of rising incomes. The market offers growth potential in key digital products groups such as computers (10% penetration), notebook computers, digital cameras and LCD TV sets.
Over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales are predicted by BMI to increase from US$1.24bn in 2011 to US$1.77bn by 2015, a rise of more than 43%.
Retail sales for the BMI universe of Central and Eastern European countries in 2011 are forecast to amount to US$1,280bn based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMI’s macroeconomic database is expected to be US$2,206bn. Russia, Turkey and Poland are predicted to account for an estimated 79% of regional retail sales in 2011, a share that is likely to fall only slightly, to 78%, by 2015. Turkey’s predicted market share of 18.0% in 2011 is expected to fall to 16.4% by 2015.
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